December 3, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Sunday. Lightning will be possible. I am watching Tuesday and Wednesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts Sunday. Monitor updates.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Not at this time. I am monitoring a system next Tuesday. I can’t completely rule out a wintry mix. For now confidence is low.

December 3, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Periods of clouds. A slight chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:43 AM
Moonset: 3:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

December 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cooler. Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain: .
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: N NW 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after 3 AM.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:18 AM
Moonset: 5:00 PM
The phase of the moon: New

December 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with rain likely. A thunderstorm is possible. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 62° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 56° to 62° / NW TN 56° to 62°
Winds will be from the: Southeast becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong wind gusts near some thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds.. Rain ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 33° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 8:24 AM
Moonset: 6:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Moring clouds. Clearing. A chance of an early morning shower over mainly western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 9 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds late.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:40 AM
Moonset: 7:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Chilly. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain or light snow/flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: East 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cold. Cloudy with a chance of scattered rain showers. Rain may mix with or change to light snow or flurries with no accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 24° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A small chance of icy bridges.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:34 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A slight chance of an early morning light shower or flurry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before noon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:18 AM
Moonset: 9:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 11:54 AM
Moonset: 10:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some increase in clouds during the afternoon. Milder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not yet. Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:23 PM
Moonset: 11:46 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

December 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain appears likely.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms early. Rain may end as snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 32° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 34° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible (esp early in the night).
Moonrise: 12:50 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

December 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 46° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 30° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 35° / South IL 30° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35° / West KY 30° to 35° / NW TN 30° to 35°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 PM
Moonset: 12:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

This is an average for the region.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them. These five graphics are from Thursday. New ones will be posted this afternoon (a bit later than usual).

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through December 7th: A few storms could be intense Sunday afternoon and evening. Monitor updates. Damaging wind would be the primary concern.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Mild today.
2. Isolated showers Friday evening.
3. Cooler Saturday through Monday.
4. Widespread rain Sunday and again Tuesday into Wednesday.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

Another unusually mild day ahead of us. Near record or record high temperatures are likely in some counties. Expect another day of widespread 70s. How about that! Quite amazing for December.

A cold front is approaching the region from the northwest. This front won’t have much moisture to work with. Perhaps an isolated shower as it crosses the region this evening and tonight.

The primary change, with this cold front, will be cooler air spilling into the region late tonight and especially Saturday. Saturday will feel quite a bit colder with highs only in the 50s. Dry Saturday and Saturday night.

A stronger cold front will push into the region Sunday. Southerly winds will bring higher dew points into the region. Higher dew points mean more moisture.

The front will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. Ending Sunday night.

There will be quite a bit of wind shear with this event. Wind shear is one ingredient when considering severe thunderstorms as a possibility.

Another ingredient is what we call CAPE. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. There might be just enough CAPE for a few of the storms to becoming severe with damaging wind gusts. Occasionally, systems like this can produce short-lived tornadoes, as well.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a low-end severe weather risk Sunday. Monitor your Beau Dodson WeatherTalk app over the weekend.

The system will have no shortage of moisture to work with. Locally heavy rain will be possible Sunday/Sunday night with a widespread 0.75″ to 1.50″. There will be pockets of higher rain totals, as well.

The trend over the past 48-hours was to increase rain totals with the Sunday event. So, I bumped them up a bit more.

Potential rain totals (totals will vary).

Ponding of water on roadways and lead clogged drains could be an issue in some counties.

Most of the rain should be over by Monday morning. Just a small chance over western Kentucky. It will be quite a bit colder Monday with highs only in the 40s. Brrr. That is going to feel even colder after our recent warm weather.

The weather won’t remain quiet for long as yet another storm system approaches the region Tuesday and TUesday night. This one will have moisture to work with, as well.

Expect some rain showers Tuesday. I will need to monitor the coverage. Data suggests scattered showers becoming more numerous late in the day and especially Tuesday night/Wednesday.

There could even be a few snowflakes Tuesday night as colder air pushes into the region. For now, I am not forecasting any snow accumulation, but will keep an eye on it.

Rain showers will continue into Wednesday. The rain should be tapering off west to east.

At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to be a mix of sun and clouds. For now, I left a small chance of precipitation in the Thursday forecast.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.