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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Sunday. Lightning will be possible. I am watching Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. I will monitor Sunday and Tuesday.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Not at this time. I am monitoring a system next Tuesday. I can’t completely rule out a wintry mix. For now confidence is low.
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December 2, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain: .
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:43 AM
Moonset: 3:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 3, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° / SE MO 70° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Periods of clouds. A slight chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:43 AM
Moonset: 3:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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December 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cooler. Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain: .
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: N NW 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after 3 AM.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:18 AM
Moonset: 5:00 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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December 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with rain likely. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 62° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 56° to 62° / NW TN 56° to 62°
Winds will be from the: Southeast becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered the first half of the night. Ending west to east.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 33° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 8:24 AM
Moonset: 6:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds late.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 26° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 26° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° / West KY 26° to 30° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:40 AM
Moonset: 7:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or a wintry mix changing to rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 46° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: Southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the chance of a wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 32° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 34° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:34 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 46° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Winds will be from the: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 32° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 34° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:18 AM
Moonset: 9:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click these graphics to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through December 7th: I am monitoring Sunday afternoon. A few storms could be intense.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Mild with near record temperatures in some counties today and tomorrow.
- Isolated showers Friday evening.
- Cooler Saturday through Monday.
- Widespread rain Sunday and again Tuesday into Wednesday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
Well, we had a bit more rain yesterday than anticipated. Further south, as well. I had to scramble to update the forecast. Sometimes that happens!
Rain totals will mostly in the 0.01″ to 0.20″ range. There were even a few embedded thunderstorms with small hail.
The big weather news over the next 48 hours will be the warm temperatures. WELL above average temperatures with near record highs in some counties. I would not be surprised if a few records fall. Anomalously warm.
It will be warmer today in the temperature department. See the daily forecast at the top of the page. This mild weather will continue Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday are likely to be the warmest days of the week. WELL above seasonal levels.
Today
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Friday
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Temperature anomaly maps for today, tomorrow, and Friday. How many degrees above average will temperatures be? Here you go! Average highs are in the lower 50s.
Thursday anomalies
Friday anomalies
A cold front arrives Friday night. This front could produce isolated showers, as well. Most of the area will remain dry.
Here is the official rainfall forecast. As you can see, not much is expected. This is for Friday evening.
The front will bring much cooler air into the region. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be quite a bit cooler. Seasonal temperatures. It will feel colder than it actually is (since we are experiencing several mild days ahead of the front).
Another front arrives Sunday. The trend over the past few days is lending itself towards more precipitation vs less. Expect widespread rain Sunday and Sunday evening. Tapering Sunday night.
Yet another front will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. Models show widespread precipitation developing with this system, as well.
The models show a wintry mix for portions of the region. Too early for certainties on precipitation type. It is possible that the rain begins as a mix before changing to all rain. I will be monitoring trends and will hopefully know a bit more tomorrow.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 33 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 2nd through December 8th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers December 9th through December 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers December 14h through December 27th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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