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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Wednesday night. Isolated lightning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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November 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers. Showers will develop west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west/northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 3:59 PM
Moonset: 4:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Becoming sunny. A slight chance of early morning showers over primarily Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. Ending early in the day.
Timing of the rain: During the early morning
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° / West KY 48° to 50° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Becoming mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° / West KY 24° to 28° / NW TN 26° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:26 PM
Moonset: 5:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° / West KY 48° to 50° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:58 PM
Moonset: 6:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mostly after midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 5:35 PM
Moonset: 7:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Rain may briefly mix with sleet or snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 6:17 PM
Moonset: 8:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:05 PM
Moonset: 9:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click these graphics to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through November 24th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- One more mild day.
- Rain chances increasing.
- Much colder tomorrow into next week.
- Monitoring Sunday rain chances.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
Today will be mild and breezy across the region. Highs will average above normal. Mostly in the 60s where there area clouds and 70s elsewhere. Not bad for the middle of November!
Today’s temperatures. Mild ahead of our cold front.
The good news is that I do not have any severe thunderstorms in the forecast. Even though it is warm, the ingredients for severe weather are lacking.
A strong cold front will push towards the region today. Clouds will develop ahead of the front. A couple of showers are possible, as well. Mainly over Missouri and Illinois. Smaller chances further east/southeast.
Widespread rain develops west to east tonight across the region. Mainly along and behind the cold front.
Rain totals still appear to be in the 0.3 to 0.6″ range. There could be locally higher amounts, as is usually the case. Totals will vary greatly from county to county.
A clap of thunder will be possible tonight, as well. Again, nothing severe.
The cold front will push off to the east early Thursday morning. This will bring an end to any shower chances.
A couple of showers may linger over our eastern counties (Owensboro to Hopkinsville) during the early morning hours (Thursday). Any remaining showers will quickly exit off to the east.
Dry conditions Thursday into Saturday afternoon. It will be colder. Nothing too extreme.
Another cold front pushes into the region Saturday night into Sunday night. This will bring another round of showers to the area. Rain totals of 0.10″ to 0.40″ are anticipated.
Temperatures will be much colder behind the Sunday night cold front. Lows will dip into the 20s next week. Perhaps some lower to middle 20s! Some of the coldest air of the season, thus far.
Tuesday morning lows. Brrr. Wind chills may dip into the teens.
I am watching precipitation chances next Wednesday/Thursday. For now, confidence in rain or snow is low. I will monitor trends in the guidance.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 17th through November 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers November 24th through November 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers November 30th through December 13th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Preliminary Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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