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Storm Tracking Links
Interactive local city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
*NEW* Zoom interactive radar (with storm chaser streams)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7
Real time lightning tracker system two.
https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Apple users click here. Android users click here.
What you need to know
Key Points
- A band of intense thunderstorms is likely to sweep across our region late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
- The severe weather risk increases Sunday night into Monday morning. Damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes will be possible.
- Have your Beau Dodson Weather app on. Check it. Make sure you have not logged out of the app.
- Remember, a watch means to monitor updates. A warning means to seek shelter. A warning is a higher threat.
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The latest update will be posted here at the top of Beau’s severe weather blog.
1 AM
The threat of severe weather is now low. Some storms may still produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain.
The severe risk, however, is low.
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12:09 AM
Dunklin and Pemiscot Counties
A line of severe thunderstorms is approaching from the west. This line may produce pockets of 60 mph wind gusts and small hail. Some wind damage will be possible with this line of storms.
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11:41 PM
Scott County, Missouri. Union and Alexander Counties in southern Illinois.
A line of storms is approaching from the west. These storms have a history of high winds. Occasionally, the storms are showing isolated areas of rotation, as well.
Seek shelter if you are in the path of this storm. Storms are moving east/northeast at 40 to 50 mph.
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11:30 PM
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11:25 PM
Southern Bollinger County. Southern Cape Girardeau County, Missouri.
Radar shows a second area of rotation in southern Bollinger County, Missouri. Movement is northeast at 40 to 50 mph. This storm will move into southern Cape Girardeau County.
The main circulation was north of Advance, Missouri moving northeast.
Two areas of concern in Bollinger and Cape Girardeau County.
Seek shelter if you are in the path of these storms.
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11:19 PM
Cape Girardeau County, Missouri.
Radar continues to show strong rotation near Millersville, Missouri. The rotation is moving east/northeast at 50 mph. This storm could produce a tornado. Damaging wind is likely with the storm, as well.
It is moving towards the Fruitland and surrounding countryside.
Seek shelter if you are in the path of this tornado.
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11:07 PM
Central Bollinger County. Cape Girardeau County.
An intense line of storms is moving through these counties. Radar also showed an area of rotation southeast of Scopus, Missouri and southwest of Millersville, MO.
This storm could produce short-lived tornadoes and damaging winds. Seek shelter if you are in the path of this thunderstorm.
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1:00 PM
Storms moving through Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties are intense. They could produce pockets of wind damage. Very heavy rain, as well.
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10:48 PM
Tornado watch expanded to include the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
10:30 PM
Storms have shown some weakening over the past hour. This is good news.
Storms are still intense and damaging wind remains a concern.
We will be monitoring for any rotation in the storms, as well.
The atmosphere is not as unstable over southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. For now, at least.
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10:04 PM
Far northwestern Jefferson County.
Radar shows some rotation moving through far northwestern Jefferson County, Illinois. This storm is mainly to your north, but is clipping the county. There could be a tornado with this storm.
Again, this is the far northwest portion of the county and most of the circulation is to the north of the county line. Be weather aware as the storm moves through the area.
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9:53 PM
General update
Ste Genevieve, Perry, Bollinger, and Cape Girardeau Counties.
Randolph, Perry, Jackson, and Jefferson Counties.
A line of severe thunderstorms extended from Perry County, Illinois south/southwest into Bollinger County, Missouri.
This line of thunderstorms has a history of producing wind damage and some tornadoes. Numerous warnings are in effect for many of the above mentioned counties.
The storms are starting to form more a line. That may be an indicator that they will transition into more of a damaging wind event with an isolated tornado risk.
Continue to stay sheltered if you are in one of the tornado warned locations. Otherwise, be prepared to seek shelter as these storms move through/into your area.
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9:42 PM
Perry County, Illinois.
The storm that struck Chester, Illinois has now weakened. The storm could still produce damaging wind and occasionally these storms cycle up and down.
Stay aware as the storm moves through your county.
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9:37 PM
Bollinger, northern Cape Girardeau, and Perry Counties in southeast Missouri.
A new tornadic supercell is approaching northern Bollinger County, Missouri. The storm is moving rapidly northeast at 50 mph.
This storm has a history of producing tornadoes, as well. It may produce additional tornadoes.
Seek shelter if you are in the path of these thunderstorms. Turn on local media for live wall to wall coverage, as well.
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9:33 PM
Jackson County, Illinois.
Another tornadic supercell thunderstorm is moving through Perry County, Missouri. This storm will pass over or near Perryville, Missouri over the next few minutes.
This storm continues to strengthen and if it stays on the current path it will soon move into Jackson County, Illinois.
Tornadoes and damaging wind are possible with this thunderstorm. Be prepared to seek shelter as this storm moves into Jackson County, Illinois.
I encourage you to turn on local television media for wall to wall coverage, as well.
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9:30 PM
A tornado is approaching or moving through Silver Lake and Perryville, Missouri. This is a dangerous storm with a history of damage producing tornadoes. Stay sheltered as this storm moves through Perry County, Missouri.
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9:27 PM
A tornado was located northeast of Chester, Illinois. This tornado is moving northeast at 50 mph and will soon approach the following areas
Bremen, Welge, Blair, and Steelville, Illinois.
Seek shelter immediately. This is a dangerous tornado with a history of damage.
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9:22 PM
Randolph, Perry, and northern Jackson Counties.
Turn on KFVS, WPSD, WSIL television for wall to wall coverage, as well.
A tornado is hitting the Chester, Illinois area. A tornado emergency has been issued for Chester, Illinois and surrounding areas. This is a dangerous tornado.
Be prepared to seek shelter if this storm approaches your area. Perry County, Illinois and northern Jackson County, Illinois should monitor the track of this storm, as well. It is moving northeast at 50 mph.
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9:18 PM
A tornado is approaching Silver Lake, Missouri and will then approach Perryville, Missouri. This storm has a history of producing damaging tornadoes.
This is a dangerous storm. Seek shelter if you are in the path of this tornado. Turn on your local media and watch wall to wall coverage, as well.
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9:15 PM
Chester, Illinois. Seek shelter now. A large tornado is approaching your area. This is a confirmed tornado that is approaching your area.
Stay sheltered.
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9:12 PM
Jackson, Perry, and Jefferson Counties in southern Illinois.
A line of supercell tornadic thunderstorms is approaching from the west/southwest. If these storms don’t weaken then severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings are likely in your area over the coming hours.
These storms have a history of producing damaging confirmed tornadoes. Be weather aware over the coming hours.
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9:09 PM
Randolph County, Illinois.
A tornado is on the ground entering Randolph County, at this time. The tornado was near Saint Mary, Missouri. The tornado is moving northeast at 50 mph.
Seek shelter if you are in the path of this tornado. It is on the ground. Damage is occurring.
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9:03 PM
A new tornado is passing through or near the Fredericktown, Missouri area and will soon enter southern Ste. Genevieve County, Missouri and western Perry County, Missouri.
This storm has a history of producing tornadoes on the ground. Damage has been reported with this tornado. This is a separate storm from the previous one that is currently moving through the Saint Mary, Missouri area (crossing into Illinois).
Seek shelter now.
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9:00 PM
Ste Genevieve and Perry Counties in MO. Randolph County, IL.
A tornado is nearing Saint Mary, MO. This tornado will soon pass over the Mississippi River. It will then pass in or near Kaskaskia, Illinois. It will also pass in or near Chester, Illinois.
If you are in or near these areas then stay sheltered until these storms pass your location.
This is a dangerous storm and has caused damage. Seek shelter if you are in the path of this storm.
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8:50 PM
Bollinger County, Missouri
A line of severe thunderstorms, with a history of producing tornadoes, will approach Bollinger County over the next hour. Be weather aware as these dangerous storms move into your county. Warnings are likely going to be issued for portions of your county shortly.
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8:49 PM
Ste Genevieve County and Randolph County
A tornado has struck the Coffman, Missouri area. This tornado, if it stays on the same track, will pass near Saint Mary, Missouri and then move across the Mississippi River.
This is a dangerous storm and has caused damage. Seek shelter if you are in the path of this storm.
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8:48 PM
Perry County, Missouri.
A tornado has struck the Coffman, Missouri area. This tornado is on the ground and causing destruction. If you are not in a safe space then move there now. A confirmed large tornado is moving through Ste. Genevieve County, Missouri and will pass across the far northern portion of Perry County, Missouri.
Additional storms may impact Perry County, Missouri from the southwest. Stay alert.
This is a particularly dangerous situation.
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8:39 PM
A tornado is entering the Coffman, Missouri area. This tornado is on the ground and causing destruction. If you are not in a safe space then move there now. A confirmed large tornado is moving into Ste Genevieve County, Missouri.
This is a particularly dangerous situation.
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8:37 PM
TORNADO WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS…
SOUTHEASTERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI…
UNTIL 915 PM CDT.
AT 834 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COFFMAN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
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8:32 PM
Ste Genevieve County
A possible tornado was located near Farmington, Missouri. This storm is moving northeast at 50 mph. Seek shelter as this storm moves through Ste. Genevieve County.
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8:29 PM
Randolph County, Illinois
Radar shows a possible tornado near Prairie Du Rocher in Randolph County, Illinois. This storm is moving northeast at 50 mph. Seek shelter if you are in northern Randolph County, Illinois.
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8:20 PM
Storm Prediction Center Update
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8:18 PM
Ste Genevieve County, Missouri
Randolph County, Illinois
Radar shows a possible tornado near or north of Bloomsdale, Missouri. This storm is moving northeast at 50 to 60 mph.
Another rotation was 15 miles south/southwest of Farmington, Missouri. This too was moving northeast at 50 to 60 mph.
Both of these thunderstorms are dangerous and could produce a tornado at any time. Seek shelter until this storm passes.
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8:12 PM
Ste Genevieve County, Missouri
Randolph County, Illinois
Multiple storms are entering Ste Genevieve County, Missouri. Two tornado warned cells. One will pass across the northern portion of the county and another one will move directly into the county.
Both of these thunderstorms are capable of producing damaging wind, quarter size hail, and a tornado.
Seek shelter until these thunderstorms pass your area.
Randolph County, Illinois, should be monitoring these storms, as well.
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7:19 PM
Ste Genevieve County, Missouri
Randolph County, Illinois
Several intense storms are approaching the county from the southwest. Over the coming hour or so these thunderstorms will push towards Ste. Genevieve County and Randolph Counties.
The atmosphere is unstable and if these thunderstorms hold their intensity then they could produce damaging wind gusts, hail, heavy rain, and even a tornado.
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A new tornado watch will likely be issued for the red circled area. Additional watches are likely tonight.
5:55 PM
A tornado watch has been issued for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Additional counties may be added later.
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5:20 PM
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5 PM Sunday Update
A line of storms is beginning to take shape in Missouri. This line will sweep eastward over the coming hours. Some of the thunderstorms will be severe.
I expect a tornado watch to be issued for at least portions of the region later this evening. Stay abreast of changing weather conditions and be prepared to seek shelter if severe weather warnings are issued.
5 PM radar
A tornado watch has been issued to our west. Additional watches are likely later this evening.
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11 AM Sunday
A few models are speeding up tonight’s precipitation by an hour or two.
Either way, most of this event will be after dark.
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9 AM Sunday Update
Everything is on track for an episode of thunderstorms tonight. There will likely be one main band of storms with a few thunderstorms possible ahead of the main line.
The main line will push east/southeast across our region tonight. Much of this event will be after dark. That makes it a bit more dangerous.
There is a chance of a tornado with this event in my forecast counties. The risk is highest across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A bit lower over Kentucky and Tennessee.
All four areas could experience severe weather. Remember, it only takes on tornado to cause problems.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with this event. Wind gusts above 65 mph will be possible with the most intense thunderstorms. A few reports of hail can’t be ruled out, either.
Thunderstorms may not exit my far east/southeastern counties until after 5 AM Monday. Long night ahead.
Let me show you a few graphics
Remember, a few storms could form ahead of the primary line. That would skew the timing a bit. This is a rough estimate posted by the NWS.
We are in a level one, two, and three zone for this event. Orange is the highest threat zone. Yellow second highest, Dark green is level one.
A severe thunderstorm is a severe thunderstorm. No matter what color zone it occurs in.
Nighttime severe weather is always more concerning.
Here is the latest Hrrr and SPC WRF future-cast radar
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7 PM Saturday Update
The next update will be Sunday morning.
No changes to the going forecast. There will be some storms tonight across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (perhaps northwest Kentucky). These storms will remain below severe levels.
There is a small chance of a Sunday afternoon thunderstorm. If storms do form they could be strong.
The primary time of concern will be 8 PM to midnight over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois and then spreading east/southeast through Sunday night/Monday morning.
All modes of severe weather will be possible.
Monitor updates.
Here is the latest Hrrr model future-cast radar. What radar might look like Sunday night.
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11 AM Saturday, October 23, 2021 Update
Good day, everyone.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a severe weather risk Sunday night into Monday morning.
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should remain below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Unfortunately, this appears as if it may be a late night event. Those tend to be more dangerous in our local area. Mainly because people are sleeping when the storms arrive.
We will need to be alert for changing weather conditions.
The ingredients are coming together for a line of thunderstorms to form over western and central Missouri Sunday afternoon. This line will then push rapidly east/southeast into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Eventually moving into Kentucky and Tennessee, as well.
Wind fields aloft will be strong with this event. There will be some turning in the atmosphere as you move higher up. That raises concerns about tornadoes.
The tornado threat is highest over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. That isn’t to say there isn’t a threat further east/southeast, as well. The entire area needs to monitor updates concerning this event.
Damaging wind will be a threat with any bowing line segments on radar. I can’t rule out some hail reports, as well.
It appears the timing for southeast Missouri will be anywhere from 9 PM onward. Then, perhaps after midnight across Kentucky/Tennessee.
I will show you the Hrrr and SPC WRF model. Keep in mind, the line could speed up or slow down by an hour or two. We will need to monitor timing. Any storms that form ahead of the line would arrive earlier, as well.
There is a chance a few supercells form ahead of the main squall line (line of storms). If that happens, then those would have a greater tornado risk associated with them.
Some QLCS tornadoes are certainly possible. QLCS tornadoes are usually embedded in the line of storms, difficult to warn on, and hard to see. They usually only last a few minutes.
The one question meteorologists are wrestling with is what time does the instability wane. Instability waning would cause the storms to weaken. There may be enough unstable air to keep the severe threat going into Kentucky and Tennessee.
Remember the May 4th event. That event was very late at night. Well past midnight. It produced several tornadoes in far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Hrrr model. Future-cast radar.
SPC WRF model. Future-cast radar. You can see how the two models time the event. Late at night.
Monitor updates.
Make sure your Beau Dodson Weather Talk app is working. Click on it. Make sure it is on.
Today’s severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
Some safety graphics.
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
New ZOOM radar (with storm chasers)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Satellite Data
Computers and tablets. These two satellite links may not work well on cell phones.
Visible Satellite. This one is to be used during daylight only. Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page. Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/a5A0e
IR Satellite. This one shows cloud temperatures. Bright colors represent cold cloud tops. That could mean thunderstorms. Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page. Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/R2fw1
Water Vapor Satellite. This one shows mid-level moisture in the atmosphere. Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page. Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/xFVwx
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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