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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Friday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring Friday’s weather. There could be some severe weather.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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October 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars and the latest forecast
Moonrise: 3:41 PM
Moonset: 12:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Warmer ahead of the front and turning cooler behind it.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 76° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 76° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the latest forecast
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Turning cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and the latest forecast.
Moonrise: 4:18 PM
Moonset: 1:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Some morning clouds with a stray morning shower. Rain ending and becoming sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
Timing of the rain: Before noon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 8 to 16 mph – gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars during the morning.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:48 PM
Moonset: 2:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:15 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 42° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:15 PM
Moonset: 3:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 74° / South IL 68° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° / West KY 68° to 74° / NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None expected
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:40 PM
Moonset: 5:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 74° / South IL 68° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° / West KY 68° to 74° / NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None expected
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 6:13 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:05 PM
Moonset: 6:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.
Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.
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Double click these graphics to enlarge them.
BAMwx DID NOT POST THESE TODAY
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through October 16th: I am monitoring Friday. There could be some severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled weather.
- Cooler by the weekend.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
The primary weather concern will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms today into Friday night. Some of the storms could be severe Friday.
A few shower’s and thunderstorms will be possible today. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, there will be a mix of sun and clouds.
Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Some of the showers and storms could produce locally heavy rain.
PWAT values will be high for this time of the year. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.
Rain totals of 0.75″ to 1.75″ will be possible with this event. Don’t be surprised if some locations top two inches.
You can see the stream of PWAT’s here on this animation.
The front moves across the region Friday. There should be enough instability for at least a few strong thunderstorms. Whether we have severe thunderstorms will depend on just how much CAPE we have. Remember, CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to tap into.
Earlier in the week it appeared we would not have enough instability. The models have been creeping upward with CAPE over the last 48 hours. There still remain questions.
We will have a lot of clouds in the region Friday. We will also have numerous showers and thunderstorms to deal with. If CAPE does develop then all modes of severe weather will be possible. That includes damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.
We went through this Monday with only a couple of severe weather reports.
The Storm Prediction Center upgraded us to a level two risk Friday. They had us at a level one risk. The scale goes to five. One being the lowest. Five being the highest.
Severe weather is not a certainty Friday, but there are enough parameters showing up in the models to warrant us paying attention.
The shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off Friday night and Saturday morning. There could still be some showers early Saturday morning before clearing arrives and the showers come to an end.
Saturday and Sunday look to be nice days (once any remaining clouds/showers exit). Highs will be much cooler. Mostly in the 60s. Lows will dip into the 40s.
Saturday afternoon
Sunday afternoon
Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be dry and autumn-like.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 14th through October 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers October 21st through October 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers October 22nd through November 4th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September Temperature Outlook
September precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
October Temperature Outlook
October precipitation outlook
November Temperature Outlook
December Temperature Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Preliminary Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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