October 11, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will likely occur today ending this evening. Another chance of thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday with peak chances being Thursday night into Friday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. There is a chance of a few severe thunderstorms today. I will be monitoring Friday, as well.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

October 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce high wind and hail.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 15 to 30 mph gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few intense storms will be possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 6:24 PM
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Monday night Forecast: A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Decreasing clouds overnight. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 58° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 10 to 20 mph gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:03 PM
Moonset: 10:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

October 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:22 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area. A chance of wet roadways and lightning over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:05 PM
Moonset: 11:33 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

October 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 6:21 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 2:58 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

October 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:19 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 65° / NW TN 60° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars and the latest forecast
Moonrise: 3:41 PM
Moonset: 12:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

October 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Warmer ahead of the front and turning cooler behind it.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the latest forecast
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Turning cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and the latest forecast.
Moonrise: 4:18 PM
Moonset: 1:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

October 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Some AM clouds with a slight chance of departing showers. Becoming mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
Timing of the rain: Before noon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars during the morning.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:48 PM
Moonset: 2:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

October 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:15 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:15 PM
Moonset: 3:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

This is an average for the region.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through October 10th: Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday and perhaps again Friday. The primary concern Monday will be damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail. There is a low-end chance of a tornado, as well. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app for the most up to date watches and warnings.

I am monitoring Friday. A strong cold front will sweep through the region with showers and gusty thunderstorms. I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Thunderstorms Monday.
2. Gusty winds.
3. Unsettled weather Wednesday and especially Thursday into Friday.
4. Much cooler next weekend.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A rather unsettled weather pattern is developing.

A cold front will sweep across the region Monday and Monday night. This front will be responsible for damaging winds and tornadoes today across Kansas and Oklahoma. That activity will spread eastward Sunday night.

Gusty winds will accompany this system. Expect wind gusts Monday to top 30 mph from the south. These will be gradient winds (low pressure to our west will move northeast). Gradient winds are caused by the pressure difference between high and low pressure.

The NAM model even shows gusts over 40 mph. The NAM is sometimes a bit too strong with gusts. You can get the general idea though from this wind animation.

A line of thunderstorms will be moving into southeast Missouri early Monday morning. This line will then push eastward across our entire area.

Some of these thunderstorms could be severe. There is a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms Monday. Conditional means that there will need to be some CAPE (energy) build ahead of the line of thunderstorms. Cloud cover could prevent this from happening.

If CAPE does not develop then the risk of severe weather will be lower. Less likely. Models show some CAPE but not a lot.

There will be a lot of wind shear to work with. Wind shear means that winds will increase with height. Stronger winds aloft help produce severe thunderstorms.

Typically, during the autumn months, we have strong wind shear but not much CAPE. The strong wind shear can sometimes offset the lack of CAPE.

The bottom line is that some severe thunderstorms are likely to develop Monday in our local area. The extent of the severe weather appears to be rather limited.

Damaging wind is the primary concern and then perhaps some reports of quarter size hail. There is enough turning of the winds with height (direction wind shear) that a tornado could develop. Again, this is a conditional risk and there is the possibility that there won’t be much in the way of severe weather. It will come down to the develop of CAPE.

The band of storms will push west to east through the day. Precipitation should end Monday evening west to east.

Tuesday should be dry.

I am monitoring a couple of systems Wednesday through Friday. These systems will produce at least scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday into Thursday.

Peak shower and thunderstorm chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday night. A strong cold front will sweep across the region during this time period. Temperatures will only be in the 60s for highs this coming weekend and then lows will drop into the 40s.

There could be a few remaining showers early Saturday morning, but for the most part the system will be departing.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.