August 11th 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. An isolated chance today through Thursday. Increasing to likely by Friday and Friday night. I will monitor Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday for low end thunderstorm chances.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could be severe Friday afternoon and night. Damaging wind is the primary concern. A low-end tornado risk. Nickel size hail, as well.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce excessive rain. Locally heavy downpours can drop an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes. Same as recent weeks.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Today and tomorrow. Expect 100 to 110 degrees. Occasionally, higher.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

August 11th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny hot and muggy. Excessive heat. A slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. An isolated chance.
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Excessive heat index values. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. None for most of the area.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 9:12 AM
Moonset: 10:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 12th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated chance.
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 96° / South IL 94° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 96° / West KY 94° to 96° / NW TN 94° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Dangerous heat index levels. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy Warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible (esp late).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:20 AM
Moonset: 10:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 13th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms developing from the north.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction becoming southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few storms could be intense with high wind and small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely along an incoming cold front. Turning a bit cooler and less humid. A cold front will push through the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Higher chances before midnight vs after
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few storms could be intense with high wind and small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:27 AM
Moonset: 10:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 14th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Not as humid. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most areas. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible over the Missouri Bootheel, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the west northeast at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:37 PM
Moonset: 11:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 15th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day (perhaps higher during the PM hours)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:47 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

August 16th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day (perhaps higher during the PM hours)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Some evening clouds. Becoming mostly clear. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:59 PM
Moonset: 121:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

August 17th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day (perhaps higher during the PM hours)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Some evening clouds. Becoming mostly clear. A slight chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:10 PM
Moonset: 121:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. This graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through August 13th: A few storms could produce high winds and hail Friday afternoon and night. We are in a low level risk of severe weather during that time period.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Hot and muggy weather continues. High heat index values will make it uncomfortable outside. Dangerous levels.
2. Thunderstorm chances Friday/Friday night.
3. Cooler and drier Saturday and Sunday.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

If you must work outside, then be careful with high heat index values. It will be muggy this week.

Monitor watches and warnings. A few storms could be severe this week.

Weather Discussion

The last 24-hours was a bit more quiet than the previous 24-hours.

We did have a few showers and thunderstorms on radar yesterday and last night. Nothing too extreme other than some locally heavy summer rains. Most areas were dry.

We have a series of disturbances pushing through the region over the coming days. Models are not in agreement as to whether we will actually experience much in the way of measurable rainfall from these systems.

Thunderstorms mainly to our north today into Thursday. Only an isolated risk locally:

Radar this morning shows thunderstorm clusters across northeast Missouri into Iowa and Illinois. Well to our north. Those will remain up there. We only have a slight chance of thunderstorms today.

Our thunderstorm chances increase Friday.

You can see the trough to our north. See how the jet stream dives down from Canada across the Northern Plains? This has been causing round after round of severe thunderstorms. There has even been tornadoes across northern Illinois into Wisconsin. Several.

These rounds of storms will continue until the trough and front push further to the south Friday into the weekend. That sets the stage for our higher thunderstorm chances Friday and Friday night. I have likely chances during that time-frame. Drying out late Friday night into the weekend.

Friday Cold Front:

A strong cold front will shift southward Friday and Friday night. This front will usher in cooler and less humid air. A better air mass than recently.

The mid-August cold front will bring thunderstorms with it, as well. I have likely chances for thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. There is a low level risk of severe thunderstorms. There will be plenty of heat and humidity/high dew points to work with.

The storms will be moving north to south across the region. Perhaps northwest to southeast.

If you have outdoor plans Friday and Friday night then you are going to want to monitor radars and the latest severe weather updates from your Beau Dodson Weather Talk app. Remember, that is for www.weathertalk.com subscribers.

We are forecasting the front to push south of the region by late Friday night and Saturday. That will usher in the somewhat cooler temperatures and much lower dew points. The air-mass will feel nicer outside. That is the good news.

I have a 10% chance of showers Saturday and Sunday. The cooler air aloft could help pop a couple of showers.

I am monitoring thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday. I have those in the slight chance, for now.

Heat and high dew points (muggy)

The other weather story, through Thursday, will be the heat and high dew points.

It is going to fell like summer. Anyone that receives rain will be even muggier. Dew points will be the air you wear type numbers. Not the best for outdoor work.

The high dew points will combine with temperatures in the 90s for heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. There will be pockets of 105 to 110 degrees. Hot.

Your body cares about the heat index. The heat index is what your body responds to. These numbers can be dangerous if you are outside too long.

Double click images on this page to enlarge them.

Heat index values will be high over the coming days. Uncomfortable and at times, dangerous.

Today

Thursday heat index values

Friday

Saturday

Let’s look at actual air temperatures behind the cold front later this weekend! Much anticipated cooler air. Not cool, but cooler.

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tropical Storm Fred has formed in the Atlantic. It will push off to the northwest over the coming days.

Arrival time of tropical storm force winds.

The path forecast. S means tropical storm strength. For now, this is not forecast to become a hurricane. Mainly a heavy rain maker.

Satellite shows the tropical storm. It is not all that impressive, at this time. It will be crossing the islands over the coming days. This could tear it apart. That happens from time to time with tropical storms in that region.

If it does survive then it may strengthen some in the Florida Keys and then as it moves up the west coast of Florida. If you have travel plains into that area then monitor updates.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadF-M6C07_G16_s20212231110205_e20212231119525_c20212231119574.nc

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.