Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 9, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

 

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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast



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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Today into next week.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor.  Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Monitor updates.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor.   Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain.  I can’t rule out pockets of flash flooding.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees?  No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast?  No.

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July 09, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   High confidence
Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /    South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94°  /  SE MO 88° to 94°  /  South IL 88° to 94°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94°  /  West KY  88° to 94° /  NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some thunderstorms could produce wind damage, as well.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Friday  night Forecast:  Becoming cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.  Some storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% /    South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° /  SE MO 70° to 75°  /  South IL  70° to 75° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° /  West KY 70° to 75° /  NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed:  South southwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce wind damage.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 5:05 AM
Moonset:  8:27 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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July 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Intervals of sun and clouds.  A good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /    South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90°  /  SE MO 85° to 90°  /  South IL 85° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90°  /  West KY  85° to 90° /  NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce wind damage.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Check the weather radars.  Thunderstorms are likely.
UV Index: 8.  High.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /    South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° /  SE MO 68° to 72°  /  South IL  68° to 72° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° /  West KY 68° to 72° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South southwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce high winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Check the weather radars.  Thunderstorms are possible.
Moonrise: 6:01 AM
Moonset:  9:13 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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July 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /    South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85°  /  SE MO 80° to 85°  /  South IL 80° to 85°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85°  /  West KY  80° to 85° /  NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:  West southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce high winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Check the weather radars.
UV Index: 8.  High.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /    South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° /  SE MO 63° to 66°  /  South IL  63° to 66°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° /  West KY 63° to 66° /  NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  west southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Check the weather radars.  Thunderstorms are possible.
Moonrise: 7:01 AM
Moonset:  9:53 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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July 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   Medium confidence
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /    South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85°  /  SE MO 80° to 85°  /  South IL 80° to 85°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85°  /  West KY  80° to 85° /  NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° /  SE MO 66° to 70°  /  South IL  66° to 70° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° /  West KY 66° to 70° /  NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  South southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 8:05 AM
Moonset:  10:29 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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July 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   Medium confidence
Tuesday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A slight chance of  thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /    South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90°  /  SE MO 85° to 90°  /  South IL 85° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  85° to 90°  /  West KY  85° to 90° /  NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed:  South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of mainly evening thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° /  SE MO 70° to 74°  /  South IL  70° to 74 /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 9:09 AM
Moonset: 11:01 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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July 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Hot and humid.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°  /  SE MO 90° to 94°  /  South IL 90° to 94°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90° to 94°  /  West KY  90° to 94° /  NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed:  South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of evening thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° /  SE MO 70° to 74°  /  South IL  70° to 74 /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 10:15 AM
Moonset: 11:29 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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July 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Hot and humid.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°  /  SE MO 90° to 94°  /  South IL 90° to 94°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90° to 94°  /  West KY  90° to 94° /  NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed:  South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of evening thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° /  SE MO 70° to 74°  /  South IL  70° to 74 /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 11:20 AM
Moonset: 11:58 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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July 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?   Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Hot and humid.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94°  /  SE MO 90° to 94°  /  South IL 90° to 94°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  90° to 94°  /  West KY  90° to 94° /  NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed:  South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
UV Index: 11. Very high
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of evening thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° /  SE MO 70° to 74°  /  South IL  70° to 74 /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed:  South southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 11:20 AM
Moonset: 11:58 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click images to enlarge them

 

 


Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through July 11th:  Thunderstorms over the coming days will produce locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.  Some of the thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind and hail.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

    1.   Hot and humid.
    2.   Thunderstorms.

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Weather advice:

Thunderstorms will be a concern today through Sunday.  A few of those thunderstorms could produce wind damage, torrential rain, and frequent lightning.  A few severe thunderstorms are possible.

 

Discussion

We do have some weather concerns over the next few days.

First, I am going on a get-away with my family Friday into next week.  I will try and keep some of the products updated, but there may be some days when the blog is not fully updated.

I will also send out some general app messages if severe weather threatens.  I may not be able to send out county by county messages.  I will give you the general forecast.

Our primary concern today through Sunday will be a stationary front that has draped itself across our region.  This front will be the focus of repeated shower and thunderstorm chances.

A few storms will pop up today during the heat of the day.  I can’t rule out some of those producing high wind gusts.  Widespread severe weather through the late afternoon hours is not anticipated.

A line of thunderstorms will develop across Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois later this afternoon and evening.  This line will move southeast overnight.  Instability will wane the later into the night we push.

If the line arrives after midnight then the risk of severe weather will decrease.  Even after midnight, however, there could still be some severe thunderstorms.  Keep that in mind.  The main concern will be damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

If the line of thunderstorms arrives before midnight then the risk of severe weather will be greater.  All modes of severe weather would be possible.

The risk will be highest over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The risk will decrease the further south and east you travel.

The front will remain in our region Saturday into Sunday.  There will be several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain will be possible.

A few of the thunderstorms may produce damaging wind, as well.  A low-end risk of hail.  The tornado risk Saturday and Sunday will be low (but perhaps not zero).

Between now and Sunday night, there will likely be a widespread 0.75″ to 1.75″ of rain.  Pockets of much higher totals will occur where repeated thunderstorms occur.  Keep that in mind.

The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture over the coming days.  It is July, after all!

Monday through Thursday will deliver warm/hot and muggy conditions.  A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible, as well.  It does appear that the coverage will be less than this weekends activity.

Any storms that form during the heat of the day could produce gusty winds and heavy rain.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
  3. The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Longer range GFS

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Long range

 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers July 9th through July 15th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers July 16th through July 22nd

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

 

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″

This outlook covers July 20th through August 2nd

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

 

The June outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Temperature departures

Final June Forecast

 

June precipitation outlook

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Preliminary outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

July Temperature Outlook

July precipitation outlook

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Preliminary outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

August Temperature Outlook

August precipitation outlook

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Summer Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

June, July, and August Temperature Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook

 

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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

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