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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME. IT WILL NOT RAIN EVERYWHERE EACH DAY. SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance through Friday. Saturday and Sunday should be dry (a low-end chance of isolated showers during the PM hours)
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. The risk of severe weather is low. A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain. This could lead to isolated issues.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Today. The range will be 96 to 104 degrees
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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June 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / South IL 88° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: ——
Moonset: 10:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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June 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:19 AM
Moonset: 11:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 01, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 72° / South IL 70° to 72 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:45 AM
Moonset: 12:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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July 02 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. A cold front may push through the region. If this happens then rain chances will end west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:09 AM
Moonset: 1:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 03, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds. A chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most areas
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most areas
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:34 AM
Moonset: 2:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 04, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds. A chance of an isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None (unless the cold front stalls). If the cold front stalls then there will be showers and thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:59 AM
Moonset: 3:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 05, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None .
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:27 AM
Moonset: 4:43 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Click the images to enlarge them.
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CLICK IMAGES TO ENLARGE THEM
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through July 4th: A few storms, over the coming days, could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty wind.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm and humid through Friday.
- Scattered thunderstorms.
- Strong cold front pushing through the region later this week.
- Much nicer Saturday and Sunday.
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Weather advice:
The primary concern over the coming days will be locally heavy downpours and lightning.
Discussion
The main weather story over the coming days will be a slow moving cold front entering our region from the north/northwest. This is the same front that has delivered day after day of flooding rains to portions of Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Some locations have exceeded a foot of rain.
The front has a lot of moisture to work with. That moisture is going to increase as the remnants of Tropical Storm Danny pushes into the region from the southeast.
The front will approach from the northwest tonight into Friday. The tropical system will approach from the southeast. They will both meet up over our region.
We will have very high moisture content in the atmosphere. Thus, any showers and thunderstorms that develop could produce locally torrential downpours, gusty wind, and lightning.
The peak coverage of precipitation will be Wednesday and Thursday. That is when the front will be the closest to the region.
The good news is that the front will continue to move south/southeast into the weekend. Had the front stalled then we would have a hot and soupy air-mass to deal with through the holiday. Instead, we will have a nicer air-mass. Lower temperatures. Lower dew points. It will feel nicer by Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday.
There is an upper level low pressure center that will try to push southwest from the Great Lakes both Saturday and Sunday. This could produce some additional clouds and perhaps a few pop-up showers both Saturday and Sunday. That would primarily occur during the afternoon hours. For now, this does not appear to be a big deal.
The chances will be a bit higher over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky (closer to the upper level low).
It is possible that low does not nudge far enough southwest to impact our region. I am watching it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 29th through July 5th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers July 6th through July 12th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers July 13th through July 21st
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
The June outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Final June Forecast
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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