June 24, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME. IT WILL NOT RAIN EVERYWHERE EACH DAY. SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

—> There is lower than normal confidence with this forecast. The placement of the cold front has shifted north/northwest. This raises questions about whether we will have much in the way of rainfall through Saturday.

48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Thursday into next Wednesday. There are questions about coverage of precipitation today through Saturday. Guidance has drastically backed away from widespread showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. If you have outdoor plans then simply monitor updated forecasts. Monitor radars.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. There are low-end chances of severe weather Thursday into next week. There is not a strong signal for any given time period. I will need to monitor this portion of the forecast.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain Thursday into next week. Heavy rain is likely in some counties.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Unlikely. Upper 90s to around 100 will be possible Friday.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A bit warmer and a bit more humid. Perhaps thunderstorm over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly over portions of SE MO and south IL). Lower confidence as you move further south and east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (monitor) to perhaps numerous. I will be watching a line of storms moving in from the St Louis, Missouri, area.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 75° / SE MO 73° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 8:43 PM
Moonset: 5:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

June 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will likely be higher over Missouri and Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over mainly the northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern portions of southern Illinois. Confidence in rain chances south of there decrease.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances may be higher over Missouri and Illinois vs the rest of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over mainly the northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern portions of southern Illinois. Confidence in rain chances south of there decrease.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:44 PM
Moonset: 6:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances may be higher over Missouri and Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the latest forecasts.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Again, chances will be higher over Missouri and Illinois.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:35 PM
Moonset: 7:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: 11:15 PM
Moonset: 8:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: 11:49 PM
Moonset: 9:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: ——
Moonset: 10:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

CLICK IMAGES TO ENLARGE THEM

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 29th: I am monitoring Thursday into next week. There will be several periods of showers and thunderstorms. I can not rule out severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Unsettled weather.
2. Models have dramatically backed off rain coverage today through at least Saturday.
3. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible into next week. Placement will need to be monitored.
4. Locally heavy rain where storms do occur.

Weather advice:

Monitor updated forecasts concerning thunderstorms later this week.

What I know

Showers and thunderstorms will return to radar as soon as Thursday. The chances will mainly be across Missouri and Illinois.
Locally heavy rain will impact the area.
A low-end severe weather risk through that time-period, as well.

What I don’t know:

The exact timing of the thunderstorm complexes Thursday and Thursday night (it is possible most of the region remains dry during that time-period).
The placement of the heaviest rain bands. Right now, that favors Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky/Tennessee. At least early on in the event.
The placement of the cold front Sunday into next week. This will be key to where heavier precipitation totals occur.

It has been a tricky forecast today into the weekend. I have said that all along. Nothing has changed when it comes to that.

The issue centers around the placement of a cold front to our north. That front will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms today through much of next week.

The only question has been (and remains) how far south do we push that front. It is key to your rain probabilities.

The trends over the last three days have been to push the heavier rain bands further north and northwest. That trend continued last night into this morning.

My going forecast has been for the heaviest rain bands to be across Missouri and Illinois today into Saturday. Then, late in the weekend into next week to shift that boundary further south and southeast.

That appears to still be the case (the going forecast).

My biggest concern is whether Missouri and Illinois see much in the way of rainfall today through Saturday. Speaking only of my counties. Areas further north will absolutely have heavy rain.

Model guidance has been leaning towards less in the way of rain totals through Saturday.

As a matter of fact, some models area completely dry over the southern half of southeast Missouri, the southern half of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Thus, confidence in the overall forecast remains lower than normal.

The morning Hrrr model has completely changed from 24 hours ago. It now brings a complex of thunderstorms all the way into the region Thursday night.

This will need to be monitored.

I am confident that if we do have thunderstorms that the chances of higher further north vs south. That appears to be certain.

If you have outdoor plans through Sunday, then you will want to check back and see if the forecast has been adjusted. I would recommend checking our local and regional radars.

Temperatures will be warm through Sunday. It will increasingly become more humid, as well. Muggy air is returning. Thus, the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

We have experienced some nice weather the last few days.

Let’s look at NOAA’s/WPC rainfall forecast. I can’t argue with these numbers. I think the biggest question would be today through Saturday.

48-hour rainfall totals forecast

72-hour rainfall totals forecast

120-hour rainfall totals forecast

WPC excessive rainfall/flash flood outlook.

Higher risk north vs south. You can see their current thinking.

Today

Tomorrow

Saturday

Let’s look at some ensembles. These give us clues.

Ensembles are the primary models. They run them over and over again with slightly different beginning variables.

The more ensembles agree the higher the confidence in the forecast numbers.

Let’s look at the EC ensembles through Saturday PM.

Most of the rain is to our north. Heavy rain stretches across northern Missouri into northern and central Illinois.

There is a lot of agreement for this. Some of them show a little rain locally.

The second batch of EC ensembles. Same time period. Again, there is a lot of agreement here.

Let’s look at the EC model mean. Combining all the ensembles together through Sunday afternoon.

Notice the heavier rain to our north. That seems locked in. Just a matter of how far south to bring rain chances through Sunday afternoon.

The GFS ensembles have always been further south than the EC. There is agreement that heavier rain falls north. The difference, however, is it wants to bring several bands of thunderstorms further south. Confidence in this solution is low.

Let’s look at the GFS model mean. Combining all the ensembles together through Sunday afternoon.

Notice the heavier rain to our north. That seems locked in. Just a matter of how far south to bring rain chances through Sunday afternoon.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.