June 23, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME. IT WILL NOT RAIN EVERYWHERE EACH DAY. SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

CAMPING FORECAST. This will vary area-wide. Please see the area by area forecast further down in the blog.

48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Thursday into next Wednesday

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. There are low-end chances of severe weather Thursday into next week. There is not a strong signal for any given time period. I will need to monitor this portion of the forecast.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain Thursday into next week. Heavy rain is likely in some counties. Flash flood warnings can not be ruled out.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Unlikely. Upper 90s to around 100 will be possible Friday.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:33 PM
Moonset: 4:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Confidence in the Thursday night forecast is low. A complex of thunderstorms may move into the region from the north. There is uncertainty surrounding the timing and strength of this thunderstorm complex. Monitor updates.
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some increase in afternoon clouds. I will be tracking a thunderstorm complex moving south southeast through northern Missouri. This could bring some precipitation into at least portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon hours. Warmer. More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. I will monitor our northern counties.
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon (MO/IL)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. I will monitor our northern counties for wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly over portions of SE MO and south IL). Low confidence in the rain chances Thursday night. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (monitor)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 8:43 PM
Moonset: 5:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

June 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will likely be higher over Missouri and Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered from the Bootheel into western Kentucky/Tennessee. More numerous over Missouri and Illinois.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances may be higher over Missouri and Illinois vs the rest of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:44 PM
Moonset: 6:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances may be higher over Missouri and Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the latest forecasts.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:35 PM
Moonset: 7:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: 11:15 PM
Moonset: 8:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: 11:49 PM
Moonset: 9:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74 / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: ——
Moonset: 10:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

THESE IMAGES ARE FROM TUESDAY. CHECK BACK LATER THIS MORNING FOR TODAY’S GRAPHICS

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 29th: I am monitoring Thursday into next week. There will be several periods of showers and thunderstorms. I can not rule out severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Unsettled weather developing later this week.
2. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday onward.
3. Locally heavy rain likely.

Weather advice:

Monitor updated forecasts concerning thunderstorms later this week.

Another nice day on tap for the region. Cool temperatures this morning. Nice!

The weather will begin to turn as early as tomorrow across Missouri and Illinois. On and off showers and thunderstorms into much of next week.

There are a lot of details left to be worked out on the placement of the heaviest rain.

It is likely that there will be a large precipitation gradient from NW to SE across my forecast counties (esp Thursday into Saturday).

What I know

Showers and thunderstorms will return to radar as soon as Thursday. The chances will mainly be across Missouri and Illinois.
Locally heavy rain will impact the area. Totals could exceed three inches between Thursday and Monday (in some locations).
A low-end severe weather risk through that time-period, as well.

What I don’t know:

The exact timing of the thunderstorm complexes Thursday and Thursday night (it is possible most of the region remains dry during that time-period).
The placement of the heaviest rain bands. Right now, that favors Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky/Tennessee. At least early on in the event.
The placement of the cold front Sunday into next week. This will be key to where heavier precipitation totals occur.

Breaking it down by days. Current thinking.

Thursday: Perhaps a band of shower’s and thunderstorms into the northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois. The chances decrease the further south and east you travel.

Friday: Heaviest showers and thunderstorms will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances the further south and east you travel.

Saturday: Heaviest showers and thunderstorms will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances the further south and east you travel.

Sunday: The bands of showers and thunderstorms should begin to shift further south and east. This brings higher rain chances area-wide.

Monday: Showers and thunderstorms numerous area-wide.

It is not going to rain all of the time. We are going to have dry periods. And, for that matter, some areas may not receive any rain on some of the days in question.

The entire rain circus will surround the placement of a stationary front. The front will be the focus of the concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity.

Where the front stalls will experience the heaviest rain. It is also likely that the front will waver about.

Model guidance shows one disturbance as early as Thursday. That would approach our northern counties from northeast Missouri and Central Illinois. That would be an MCS. An MCS is a thunderstorm complex. They are actually responsible for much of our summer rains.

How far south it survives, if it does develop, remains a question. I have at least a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night (higher chances the further north you travel).

Friday through Wednesday will be warm, humid, and unsettled. We will have daily chances of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

Rain totals from Thursday night into Wednesday will vary greatly. This is typical for late June. As you know, one county can pick up several inches of rain and neighboring counites pick up very little.

A good example of this is what happened Monday. Some locations received no measurable rain. Other locations received three to five inches!

I will need to adjust the precipitation probability numbers as we approach the weekend.

Do not be surprised if someone picks up two to three (or more) inches of rain between Thursday and Monday.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend then you will want to monitor updated forecasts. It likely won’t rain all of the time. It will, however, likely rain somewhere in the region each day.

PWAT values will be sustained and very high. This is a signal for locally heavy rain. If thunderstorms train repeatedly over the same area, then some spots can pick up one to two inches of rain in less than thirty minutes. Again, the key will be the placement of the stationary front.

Early on, that favors Missouri and Illinois (Thursday into Saturday). With time, that front should shift south and east. The placement of heavy rain will begin to push into the rest of the area (more widespread, at least) Sunday into next week.

Here is what those PWAT values look like on an animation. Notice the high numbers for an extended period of time. Anything above 1.6 is considered high. Anything about 2.0 is extremely high.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

The NWS/WPC has put out these maps. They are forecasting heavy rain totals.

This is through 7 AM Saturday

Notice how the rain shifts south and east over the weekend and into next week.

Click the images to enlarge them.

This is through 7 AM Monday

And this is through 7 AM Wednesday

Click the image to enlarge it

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.