June 18, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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48-hour forecast

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Monday to Monday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible today. Then, a low chance Thursday/Thursday night. A higher chance Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. I will monitor Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could be severe today. Damaging wind is the main concern. Hail is a second concern. Tornado risk is low. I will monitor Friday into the weekend. Storms this time of the year can occasionally produce wind damage.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain today. I will monitor the weekend. Typically, any thunderstorms this time of the year produce locally heavy rain.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Not at this time.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some will produce heavy rain, gusty wind, frequent lightning, and perhaps hail.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy early. Clearing late. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms the first half of the night. Ending northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the night. Ending overnight.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 1 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts before midnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Evening storms could produce high winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the night. Check the radars.
Moonrise: 5:01 PM
Moonset: 2:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Nicer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant conditions.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 56° / South IL 54° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:18 PM
Moonset: 3:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:33 PM
Moonset: 4:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

June 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer. More humid. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated (MO/IL)
Timing of the rain: During the afternoon (MO/IL)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning (MO/IL)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 8:43 PM
Moonset: 5:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

June 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:44 PM
Moonset: 6:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the latest forecasts.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
Moonrise: 10:35 PM
Moonset: 7:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

June 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check weather radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:15 PM
Moonset: 8:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

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CLICK IMAGES TO ENLARGE THEM

Final June Forecast

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 19th: A few storms could be intense near the I64 Corridor Friday evening/Friday night. Perhaps Saturday, as well. Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday area-wide. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Hot today and tomorrow. Muggy, as well.
2. Heat index values will top 100 degrees today and tomorrow.
3. A few thunderstorms over our northern counties tonight/tomorrow.
4. Thunderstorm chances area-wide late Sunday night into Monday.

Weather advice:

Hot and muggy conditions. Uncomfortable outside.

A few storms are possible tonight and Saturday over northern portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Smaller chances as you drive further south.

We will need to carefully monitor how far south the boundary pushes Saturday. If it pushes a tad further south then bring the thunderstorm line deeper into southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.

Severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out Monday area-wide. A strong cold front will push into the region from the west/north. Monitor updates.

Discussion

The primary weather story will be the hot and muggy conditions today and tomorrow.

As a matter of fact, heat index values could top 105 degrees this afternoon and evening. Highest heat index values may end up across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Some locations could hit the 110 degree mark! Hot. Uncomfortable weather. Use care if you must work outside.

A cold front is sagging southward across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

This front will help spark showers and thunderstorms across our northern counties later today and tonight. Perhaps Saturday, as well. See the future-cast radars.

It appears the bulk of our region will remain dry over the next 48-hours. A few locations, however, could pick up an intense thunderstorm.

The Storm Prediction Center has our far northern counties outlined for a low-end severe weather risk.

Where thunderstorms form, they will produce frequent lightning. Plenty of energy in the atmosphere.

A strong cold front will push southward into the region late Sunday night into Monday night. Strong thunderstorms are likely along this front. Monitor updates concerning severe weather.

Cooler and less humid air will arrive next Tuesday and Wednesday.

I am monitoring additional thunderstorm chances towards next weekend, as well. Still some time to watch that.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.