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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Scattered today and Friday. Isolated Saturday and Sunday. I will monitor Monday night and Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. At this time, the risk of severe weather appears to be minimal. A couple of storms could produce downburst wind gusts of 50 mph. Overall, the risk at any given location is small.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with this week. This could lead to flash flooding. Heavy rain is possible if slow moving thunderstorms train over the same areas. Monitor updates.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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June 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
Moonset: 8:47 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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June 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. Hot and muggy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Warm and humid. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: It may be dry for most areas. Otherwise, any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars if clouds thicken.
Moonrise: 6:20 AM
Moonset: 9:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars if clouds thicken.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars if a thunderstorm approaches.
Moonrise: 7:10 AM
Moonset: 10:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated chance of a storm.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:07 AM
Moonset: 11:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated chance of a storm.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Monitor updates on the chance of thunderstorms. Wet roadways and lightning where they occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Any given point of time.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Monitor updates on the chance of thunderstorms. Wet roadways and lightning where they occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:08 AM
Moonset: 11:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Any given point of time.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:11 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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June 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 78° to 82° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Any given point of time.
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 62° / South IL 58° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:16 AM
Moonset: 12:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Click the images to enlarge them.
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These images are from Wednesday. New images will be posted later this morning.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through June 13th: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms could produce gusty wind today into the weekend. The risk of severe weather is low. An isolated severe thunderstorm warning can’t be ruled out.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- A few thunderstorms today into Saturday.
- Storm activity becomes widely scattered Friday and Saturday. Isolated Sunday.
- Hot and muggy weekend.
- Less humid by Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Weather advice:
A few thunderstorms today into Saturday could produce lightning and locally heavy rain.
An isolated storm is possible Sunday. Most of the area should remain dry Saturday and Sunday.
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We have another chance of thunderstorms today. We continue to have a wide range of rain totals. Some areas have received very little rainfall. Others are now over five inches!
Thunderstorms will become widely scattered Friday and Saturday. Any storms that form could be intense with gusty wind and heavy rain. Lightning, as well.
It will be hot Friday into Sunday. Heat index values well into the 90s to around 100 degrees. Actual air-temperatures will be in the 86 to 92 degree range. Muggy air.
There should be somewhat lower dew points Sunday, but the much lower ones won’t arrive until Monday and Tuesday.
Air you wear. Not the best weekend weather forecast if you want to be outside.
This weather will continue into Monday.
A cold front arrives Monday night and Tuesday. Perhaps some thunderstorms with the front. It will turn cooler and less humid by Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Dew points will make it feel muggy into the weekend. Dew points in the 70 represent air you wear. Tropical air.
Let’s take a look at dew points
Today
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday will deliver nicer dew points. Tuesday dew points should be even lower.
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Heat index values will be high, as well. These will be the highest heat index values this year, thus far.
Use care if you are outside.
Friday heat index values.
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Saturday heat index values.
Sunday heat index values.
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The good news is that thunderstorm activity will fall into the slight chance category as we move into Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday.
A cold front may bring some additional thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. Perhaps we will have a zero chance by Tuesday as the cooler air arrives.
There will be some showers and thunderstorms with the cold front. I will need to monitor the timing of that cold front. Right now, it appears that it will push through the region Monday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers June 10th through June 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers June 17th through June 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
The June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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