June 8, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

A level one severe weather risk today. Light green is sub-severe. Dark green is where a few storms could produce high wind. I can’t rule out an isolated tornado threat if we have more CAPE (energy) for storms to work with. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather app.

Heat index Friday may hit 100 degrees.

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today through Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could be severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, a low-end risk of downburst wind from collapsing thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with this week. This could lead to flash flooding. Heavy rain is possible if slow moving thunderstorms train over the same areas. Monitor updates.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 8, 2021

We have a low-end severe weather risk today. Damaging wind and an isolated tornado will be the concern. There are questions about whether the atmosphere will become unstable enough for severe weather. Locally heavy rain is likely. I did start the severe weather blog (just in case we have a few severe thunderstorms). Link to that CLICK HERE
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be severe with high wind and torrential rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° / SE MO 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Strong wind gusts near thunderstorms. An isolated tornado risk if we have enough CAPE (energy in the atmosphere). CAPE is in question with the clouds and ongoing rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Strong wind near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:25 AM
Moonset: 6:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:58 AM
Moonset: 7:49 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
Moonset: 8:47 PM
The phase of the moon: New

June 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Hot and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Warm and humid. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 6:20 AM
Moonset: 9:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

June 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° / SE MO 88° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: West 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 900° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 7:10 AM
Moonset: 10:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

June 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:07 AM
Moonset: 11:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Click images to enlarge them

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 9th: Some thunderstorms could be severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. There are questions about instability today. If clouds and rain linger then CAPE will be lower. Remember, CAPE is basically energy that storms tap into. Normally, we need sunshine to build CAPE. IF that happens today, then severe storms are possible. Damaging wind is the main concern and perhaps a brief tornado. Yesterday, there were some tornado warned storms in southern Arkansas. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Otherwise, the threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low Wednesday and Thursday. There could be a few reports of downburst winds. Thunderstorms pop-up and eventually collapse on themselves. This can cause isolated 50+ mph wind gusts. Overall, the risk is small through Thursday.

I am monitoring Friday and Saturday. Instability levels may be higher. If thunderstorms do form Friday or Saturday then they could be locally intense.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Wet pattern continues.
2. A WIDE range of rainfall totals over the coming days (same as recent days)
3. A few thunderstorms could become severe today and this evening.
4. Locally heavy rain with the potential of pockets of flash flooding.
5. Monitoring Friday and Saturday when the atmosphere may be a bit more unstable.
6. Warm and muggy conditions.

Weather advice:

Monitor updates concerning locally heavy rain this week.

Monitor updates in case a few thunderstorms become severe. The primary concern will be wind damage and torrential rain. A low-end tornado risk today and this evening, as well.

The big question today will be whether we have enough CAPE for thunderstorms to tap into to become severe. Models are not showing much CAPE. Some of the models show more than others, of course.

The high resolution Hrrr model is showing very little. This would lower the severe weather threat.

If we have sunshine today, then the risk of severe weather would increase. We will need to monitor satellite trends.

CAPE (energy) values will be high. Storms tap into CAPE. CAPE is one parameter that I look at when considering severe thunderstorms.

High resolution models show thunderstorms forming today. That is a certain. Locally heavy rain is the primary concern. A secondary concern would be the low-end severe weather risk.

PWAT values will be very high today. This is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. Any thunderstorms that form could produce torrential rain in a short period of time. A few flash flood warnings can’t be ruled out.

Day one excessive rainfall (flash flood outlook). This scale goes one to four. One being a slight risk. Four being a high risk.

You can see our region is in a risk of flash flooding today, tomorrow, and Wednesday.

Today

Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be in the forecast through Friday.

The greatest coverage will be today through Wednesday. Then, lessening coverage Thursday and Friday. Even less coverage Saturday and Sunday.

I continue to watch a cold front Saturday/Sunday. This front may bring in slightly cooler and less humid air by Sunday and Monday.

I will need to keep an eye on shower and thunderstorm chances along that front, as well. There could be an increase in coverage as the front passes.

For now, I went with lower-end rain chances Saturday and Sunday, but I will need to watch trends in the guidance. There could be a line of showers and thunderstorms with the frontal boundary.

I will keep the weekend forecast updated.

Models do show a stronger push of cooler and less humid air by next Tuesday or Wednesday. That is another part of the forecast that I will be monitoring.

Until then, muggy weather will rule with dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Air you wear. Tropical air.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.