June 5, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

Heavy rain possible this week.

It isn’t going to rain all of the time. We will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning this evening and perhaps lasting into next week.

Just keep in mind, each day won’t be a wash-out at every location.

Hit and miss thunderstorms. Some with very heavy rain.

Any slow moving thunderstorms could produce pockets of flash flooding.

This is the kind of pattern that produces several inches in one county while a neighboring county receives very little.

Flash flood outlook for Sunday

Monday

Green is a level one out of four. Yellow is a level two out of four. One being the lowest.

Tuesday

Rain totals from 6 PM through 7 AM Sunday.

This is what fell overnight. A WIDE range of totals.

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Saturday to Saturday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Saturday night (late) into at least Thursday

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. The risk of severe weather through next Saturday appears low, but perhaps not zero. Some thunderstorms could produce downburst winds. These can exceed 50 mph.

Downburst winds occur when thunderstorms collapse.

This is what that looks like. Heavy rain dumping from the storm. Strong winds can occur with this heavy rain.

Example

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with this week. This could lead to flash flooding. Extremely heavy rain is possible if slow moving thunderstorms train over the same areas. Monitor updates.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

June 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild. Odds favor dry conditions. There is a tiny chance of an evening thunderstorm during the heat of the late afternoon/early evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late at night
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:06 AM
Moonset: 3:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the afternoon (heat of the day)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM. Anything after 9 PM would be widely scattered or isolated.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:30 AM
Moonset: 4:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 80° to 84° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 3:56 AM
Moonset: 5:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:25 AM
Moonset: 6:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

June 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the weather radars
Moonrise: 4:58 AM
Moonset: 7:49 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through June 9th: The threat of severe thunderstorms into next week appears low. Monitor updates.

I am more concerned about the potential of heavy rain next week. Very high moisture content in the atmosphere could mean flash flooding. Monitor updates.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Becoming warmer and more humid this weekend into next week.
2. Thunderstorm chances begin to ramp up late Saturday night into at least Thursday.
3. Locally torrential downpours possible next week (high moisture content in the atmosphere).
4. Localized flash flooding next week will be a possibility.

Weather advice:

Monitor weather updates Sunday into much of next week. Locally heavy thunderstorms could produce torrential rain. Flash flooding will be possible if slow moving thunderstorms develop.

No changes to Friday’s update.

We are starting to see moisture stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. This is the moisture feed that will lead to locally heavy rain over the coming seven days.

I am forecasting a widespread one to two inches of rain with pockets of three to five inches of rain. Some locations could top five inches.

The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

We will have daily chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning this evening and lasting into next weekend.

I will need to monitor when the chances decrease. Some of the data shows less coverage Thursday through Sunday. Not all of the data agrees with that. Monitor updates if you have plans next weekend.

Flash flooding will be possible with this event.

This is the kind of event where a thunderstorm can easily drop one to two inches of rain in less than thirty minutes.

If thunderstorms repeatedly impact one location, then very heavy rain totals will occur.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Satellite shows you the moisture stream. This is moving northward.

IR satellite shows widespread showers and thunderstorms from Arkansas into the Gulf of Mexico. Notice the feed into the Bay of Campeche.

Water Vapor Satellite. Again, you can see the feed of moisture.

Models won’t handle rain totals all that well. The EC model shows 1.2 to 6.5″ of rain over the next seven days.

Again, don’t take this as gospel. Models just can’t handle pop-up thunderstorms. There will be a wide range of rain totals.

The 8 AM radar shows rain developing to our south. This is moving northward.

See all of our radars at the bottom of the page. You can track the rain with those radars.

The WPC/NWS has placed our region in a level one out of three risk of flash flooding Monday.

This will likely continue Tuesday into at least Wednesday (perhaps beyond).

Green is level one. Yellow is level two. This is a four level scale. One being the lowest.

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