Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

The primary weather concern in the short-term forecast will be thunderstorm chances today.

We have several complexes of thunderstorms over Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas as of this writing (7 AM).

These clusters of storms can be seen on both satellite and radar.

The satellite view showers the cold cloud tops (bright colors).  Those are thunderstorms.  Remember, these are clouds.

See the live satellite and radar links at the bottom of the page for the latest images.

And radar shows the rain and thunderstorms.  Again, this is the 7 AM radar.  See the live radar links for the updated images.

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All of this will push into our region later this afternoon and into tonight.

There remain questions about whether we will experience much in the way of severe thunderstorms.

Dew points will struggle later today over Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.   Higher dew points over  southeast Missouri.  Dew points measure moisture in the atmosphere.  Higher dew points equal higher severe weather chances.

CAPE also struggles.  CAPE is a measure of energy.

I am forecasting the highest risk of severe weather to be placed over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Decreasing chances as you move further south and east.  That does not mean Kentucky and Tennessee won’t experience a severe weather risk.  It just means the risk appears smaller.

A few thunderstorms could form ahead of the main squall line.  If that happens then those could produce damaging wind and hail, as well.

Some of the models hint as this happening between 11 AM and 2 PM.

The main line will approach southeast Missouri and southern Illinois between 12 PM and 3 PM.  We will have to see how much of it remains intact.

Additional lines of thunderstorms may form over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas this afternoon.  Those would move east/southeast, as well.

The bulk of the thunderstorm activity will occur between 2 PM and 10 PM.

Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app for the most up to date information.

Did you know that we have a SEE ALL tab on the www.weathertalk.com website?  You can view every message for every county.

Click here to view that tab.

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Notice how the CAPE is a bit muddled.  It attempts to pump up tomorrow and then is knocked back down.  That is because of the morning showers and thunderstorms.

If that morning line messes with the CAPE then it may be difficult for the CAPE to recover.  If the CAPE does not recover then the risk of severe weather is lower.

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The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has outlined the risk of severe thunderstorms for our entire area.  As a matter of fact they have a level one, two, and three risk outlined.

Five is their highest risk.

Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center.  The graphic shows you their primary concern zone.  You can see the risk is a bit higher as you travel west/southwest.

Monitor updated forecasts.  Adjustments are possible.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
3. The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

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Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

The primary forecast concern over the coming days continues to be showers and thunderstorms.

We are waking up to scattered showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms.  Nothing of the severe nature.  Just some wet roadways and lightning to deal with for your morning commute.

These showers and thunderstorms will be with us into this afternoon and a few perhaps into the evening hours.

A couple of thunderstorms this afternoon could produce brief gusty wind and small hail.  The severe weather risk appears to be small this afternoon and evening.  Low-end risk of a severe thunderstorm warning.  I will send out app messages if need be.

We have a relative lull tonight before a stronger system approaches tomorrow.

This strong system will help usher in much cooler air by Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.  Then, another rain maker towards the middle of next week.

The atmosphere will become unstable Thursday late morning into Thursday night.

A high amount of moisture will be pushing into the region below a northward moving warm-front.

This northward moving warm-front will be key to what happens later in the day.  How far north it travels will be important to our sensible weather.

There are a couple of ideas on the weather table for tomorrow and tomorrow night.

One is that a line of thunderstorms pushes across Illinois and Missouri tomorrow morning.  Reaching our region after 11 AM.  This line of storm may be weakening.  It could then intensify over our local counties.  That would occur as it bumps into an unstable air-mass.

If that line weakens and then does not intensify, then we would have to wait on the second round of storms Thursday night to produce any risk of severe weather.

For now, it appears that the morning line may move into our north/northwest counties of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois after 11 AM and then move across the rest of the area.  It may be weakening.

A second line of storms would then move into the region after 9 PM Thursday night.  This line would peak over Missouri and perhaps portions of Illinois.  It would then be in a weakening stage as it moves into Kentucky and Tennessee.

Either round of thunderstorms could produce some severe weather.  The main concern appears to be damaging wind.  Straight line winds are possible in some counties.  Any bowing  echoes could produce short-lived tornadoes, as well.

Tomorrow is a conditional severe weather risk.

What does conditional mean?  It means that there is lower than normal confidence in how the forecast unfolds because a few of the ingredients may not materialize.  If they don’t materialize then the severe weather risk will be lower.

My advice is to be prepared for severe weather Thursday and then monitor the severe weather blog throughout the day and night.  I will, of course, be sending out app messages.

Let’s take a look at the CAPE maps.  CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

Notice how the CAPE is a bit muddled.  It attempts to pump up tomorrow and then is knocked back down.  That is because of the morning showers and thunderstorms.

If that morning line messes with the CAPE then it may be difficult for the CAPE to recover.  If the CAPE does not recover then the risk of severe weather is lower.

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The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has outlined the risk of severe thunderstorms for our entire area.  As a matter of fact they have a level one, two, and three risk outlined.

Five is their highest risk.

Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center.  The graphic shows you their primary concern zone.  You can see the risk is a bit higher as you travel west/southwest.

Since this is their day three outlook, it is likely to change between now and when the event occurs.  They could add or remove counties from the risk zone.

Thus, monitor updated forecasts.  Adjustments are likely.

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The primary forecast concern over the coming days will be showers and thunderstorms.

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as today.  The coverage will, however, be limited.

Rain chances will begin to increase tonight into tomorrow.  Into the likely category.

It won’t rain all of the time, but there will be rain on radar pretty much through most of tonight and tomorrow.

A few of the thunderstorms could be intense Wednesday afternoon and evening.  There will be some energy in the atmosphere.  The wind shear, however, is going to be fairly weak.

That means that the risk of severe thunderstorms will be limited.  I don’t expect an outbreak of severe weather Wednesday.  A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind and perhaps nickel size hail.

I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm watch, but this appears to be a low-end severe weather risk.

I will monitor today’s data and update accordingly.

Let’s take a look at the CAPE maps.  CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

You can see limited CAPE Wednesday but higher CAPE Thursday afternoon and night.

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Thursday will deliver higher severe weather chances.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has outlined the risk of severe thunderstorms for our entire area.  As a matter of fact they have a level one, two, and three risk outlined.

Five is their highest risk.

The thinking is that a dying line of thunderstorms will push across Missouri and Illinois Thursday morning and then redevelop Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

It is this line that they are concerned about producing high wind, hail, and even some tornadoes.

The risk is conditional.  There are questions about whether the line will reignite.  This will need to be monitored.  I will start the severe weather blog in case the event verifies.

The primary concern will be afternoon into the overnight hours.  Showers and thunderstorms would then taper off Friday afternoon and evening.

Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center.  The graphic shows you their primary concern zone.  You can see the risk is a bit higher as you travel west/southwest.

Since this is their day three outlook, it is likely to change between now and when the event occurs.  They could add or remove counties from the risk zone.

Thus, monitor updated forecasts.  Adjustments are likely.

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The supercell thunderstorm composite shows peak numbers Thursday PM and then waning Thursday night.

The supercell composite is one indicator of severe thunderstorms.

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Dew points Wednesday afternoon will reach into the upper 60s to around 70.  That is muggy air.  That is enough moisture to help produce some downpours with any thunderstorms that develop.

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We take a look at the dew point animation for Thursday, as well.  You can see the moisture streaming northward ahead of our storm system.  Pumping moisture into our region.

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Let’s look at another moisture indicator.  PWAT values.  PWAT is something I look at when considering heavy rain or heavy downpours from showers/thunderstorms.

We will have quite a bit of moisture in the region.  Not extreme, but enough to help produce some locally heavy downpours.

Rain totals between now and Friday will vary greatly.  If you end up with a couple of thunderstorms then an inch of rain will be possible.

Generally, rain totals of 0.20″ to 0.50″ is anticipated.  Again, storms will cause heavier totals.

It is not out of the question that some areas receive very little in the way of rain.  Typical for this time of the year.

Don’t forget our website has a “see all” tab.  You can see every warning that I send out (and other information).

Click here for the see all tab.  You can monitor other counties.  You can make sure you didn’t miss anything.  LINK https://weathertalk.com/app/messages

What you need to know.

Key Points (monitor the top of the page for updates)

1.   A low-end risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and night.
2.   A greater risk Thursday afternoon and night.
3.   A few of the storms could produce hail and wind damage.  A low tornado risk.
4.   Locally heavy rain and lightning.
5.   Have your Beau Dodson Weather app on.  Check it.  Make sure you have not logged out of the app.
6.   Remember, a watch means to monitor updates.  A warning means to seek shelter.  A warning is a higher threat.

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Call to action.

Monitor updated weather forecasts.

Have a safety plan.

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