.
Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
.
.
.
.
Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. Low-end lightning chances Saturday afternoon and night. Increasing chances Sunday through Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
.
.
May 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast becoming east southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 7:57 PM
.
Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a late night shower (mainly NW).
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (NW)
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 55° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few wet roadways possible over our northwest counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:36 AM
Moonset: 10:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
May 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day. Perhaps more numerous during the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° / SE MO 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Greater coverage the northern half of the region vs the southern half.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° / West KY 56° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 8:23 AM
Moonset: 11:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
May 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 76° to 78° / NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% / MO Bootheel ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64° / SE MO 56° to 62° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 9:15 AM
Moonset: : PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
May 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% / MO Bootheel ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° / SE MO 70° to 75° / South IL 72° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 76° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 7:59 PM
.
Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% / MO Bootheel ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 60° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 10:13 AM
Moonset: 12:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
May 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% / MO Bootheel ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 75° to 78° / NW TN 75° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:00 PM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:15 AM
Moonset: 1:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
May 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A few clouds. An isolated thunderstorm. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:43AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:20 PM
Moonset: 1:51 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
.
.
These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
.
.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
Today through May 18th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.
.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
.
The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
Weather advice:
No significant weather concerns (outside of rain chances).
.
Weather Discussion
-
- On and off rain chances into next week.
- Warming trend.
** SUNDAY UPDATE **
I lowered rain chances later this week. I raised temperatures later this week.
End
One more dry day before rain chances increase.
Today will be a nice day across the region. Somewhat warmer. All in all, a decent May day.
Clouds increase tonight and we will start to move away from high pressure and into a more active weather pattern.
Most of the area will remain dry tonight. Rain chances will begin to increase late tonight across our northwest counties (northwest portions of southeast Missouri).
Saturday through Thursday will deliver unsettled weather with on and off rain chances. Some thunderstorms, as well.
It will be difficult to pin down the county to county forecast. I did my best with the % numbers at the top of the blog update. I suspect there will be adjustments.
The best advice, if you have outdoor activities, is to check the radars. Plan on scattered showers and thunderstorms at just about any given point through next Thursday.
It definitely won’t rain all of the time. There will be periods of time where shower/thunderstorm complexes will roll through the region.
Have a plan B if you have outdoor activities and then hope for the best.
Perhaps Saturday will deliver a greater dry-period than other days. That is because the system will still be approaching our region.
Rain chances will be higher Saturday across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois vs Kentucky/Tennessee.
The future-cast radars have been updated below.
There remain different opinions in the models as to the exact timing and placement of higher rain chances.
Models are struggling with the pattern.
Let’s look at the WIDE range of rain totals via the different models. You can see the large differences between all of them.
The EC is the driest model through Sunday night.
Here is the GFS model through Sunday night
Here is the NAM model through 7 AM Monday
Here is the NAM 3K model through 1 PM Sunday
.
There is little agreement in the model guidance as to the placement of the heavier rain totals.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
.
This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
.
.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers May 14th through May 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
.
This outlook covers May 22nd through May 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers May 28th through June 10th
.
Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
.
May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
.
The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
.
Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
.
Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
.
Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
.
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
.
Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
