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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
A freeze watch has been issued for Tuesday night. More counties may be added or a frost advisory may be issued, as well.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Low chance. A small chance today/tonight. I am watching Friday and Saturday. Another low-end chance of lightning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. River flooding will continue.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Yes. Some slushy accumulation possible Tuesday afternoon and night. Primarily over Missouri and Illinois. Lower chances elsewhere.
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April 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Warm ahead of the front. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the front. Morning sunshine. Increasing clouds from the northwest. A band of rain and snow will develop over Missouri and Illinois and quickly move east/southeast. Brief heavy wet snow possible. A clap of thunder is also possible. Accumulation, if any, will be light and slushy. It would not last long since it will be warm ahead of the front and ground temperatures are also warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered during the afternoon. Increasing from the northwest.
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 55° to 65° then falling / South IL 55° to 68° then falling / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South becoming west/northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 70° falling temperatures from the northwest
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Slushy snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Freeze likely. Cloudy the first half of the night. Rain and snow moving off to the east/southeast. Turning sharply colder. Breezy, at times. Frost possible after 1 AM (if sky conditions clear).
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous before 12 AM
Timing of the rain: Before 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 26° to 32° / South IL 26° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35° / West KY 30° to 35° / NW TN 33° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 10 to 20 mph becoming north northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Frost/freeze possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 12:25 PM
Moonset: 2:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Morning clouds. Isolated rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~20% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly between 11 AM and 4 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Clearing and cold. Frost possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 30° to 34° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:27 PM
Moonset: 3:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? AM frost
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A few showers possible late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 38° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:35 PM
Moonset: 3:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of PM showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly the PM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.
Moonrise: 3:44 PM
Moonset: 4:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Rain chances will be higher before 1 PM vs after.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: The bulk of this will be before 1 PM. Then, decreasing chances.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor lightning chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:55 PM
Moonset: 4:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° / West KY 64° to 68° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:08 PM
Moonset: 5:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 26th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Weather advice:
Frost will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday night. Protect sensitive plants.
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Weather Discussion
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- Mild ahead of the front. Cold behind it.
- Rain and snow showers Tuesday/Tuesday night.
- Monitoring weekend rain chances.
A powerful spring cold front will sweep across the region today. You can expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees ahead of the front. You can expect 20s and 30s behind the front. That is a 30 to 40 degree temperature drop.
Impressive cold front for any given time of the year. I am thankful to say, that severe thunderstorms won’t be an issue with this front. Quite remarkable given the time of year.
We will have gusty winds developing today along the front. Southerly winds ahead of the front and northerly winds behind the front.
The push of cold air will move across the region from northwest to southeast. Some locations will experience their high temperatures this morning.
A band of shower and snow will accompany the frontal passage. A brief one to three hour period of rain and snow. The snow may be heavy enough, at times, to stick to elevated surfaces. This would most likely occur across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The further north and west you travel, the greater the chance of a light dusting of wet snow. It would then melt once the snow ends.
Ground and road temperatures are way too warm for a significant snow event. This is a novelty snow event. Flakes in the air. Perhaps some brief slushy accumulation here and there. Again, mainly Missouri and Illinois.
The chances of a brief wet slushy snow accumulating over western Kentucky is lower, but perhaps not zero. Either way, this is not a big deal. It won’t impact travel.
The Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee should see mainly rain. Maybe a wet snowflake mixed in. No accumulation.
The bigger story will be a freeze tonight and a frost tomorrow night.
Additional counties will be added if confidence increases the colder air will push further south and east. For now, these are the advisories.
A frost advisory is also possible Wednesday night, but hasn’t been issued, yet.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s over much of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and portions of western Kentucky. The Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee may also flirt with the freezing mark.
This may bring harm to some plants.
A few showers may redevelop Wednesday afternoon. Nothing major.
Temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the lower to middle 30s. Frost is likely.
Our next weather maker will push into the region late Thursday night into Saturday. Rain is likely to develop ahead of an area of low pressure moving out of the southwest United States.
Widespread rain is likely late Friday into Saturday morning,
The rain will end west to east late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.
I did increase Saturday morning rain chances. The GFS is less bullish than the EC model. However, with that said, both show rain.
Rain totals with that event will range from 0.20″ to 0.50″. Locally higher.
There is a low-end chance of lightning Friday night/Saturday morning. There is not much instability to work with.
Temperatures will begin to push towards seasonable levels Sunday and Monday. We have experienced below normal temperatures for the last two weeks. April has been an odd-ball. The lack of severe weather is stunning, as well.
Our region has experienced almost no severe thunderstorms this year, thus far. Not that I can remember. Quite unusual. A quiet severe season is a great severe season.
Let’s remember that our peak tornado months are April, May, and June. Remember, winter was dull until it wasn’t. It all came at once.
Let’s continue to stay weather aware over the coming weeks.
Models indicate the potential of a warmer than normal May. We shall see how that pans out.
There is a Pacific Typhoon that could mess with the May forecast. It is something that I am monitoring. Sometimes these systems can cause cooler air and sometimes warmer air. It depends on the exact track.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 20th through April 26th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers April 27th through May 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers May 5th through May 17th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
April precipitation outlook
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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