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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Low risk. A small chance today. A small chance late tonight/tomorrow.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. River flooding will continue.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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April 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of mainly AM showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the morning hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few showers, especially over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 40% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:22 AM
Moonset: 9:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few showers again possible. Mainly across the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Perhaps portions of western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 40% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: At any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset: 10:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A few more clouds in the afternoon vs morning.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:31 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers across mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:22 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. A slight chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 65° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 8:57 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: At any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 65° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 9:39 AM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% / MO Bootheel ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the evening hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 10:28 AM
Moonset: 12:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 10:30 AM and 11:30 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 18th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Showers ending today.
- Cooler than average temperatures well into next week.
- Monitoring frost chances.
The region is currently under the influence of a fast moving weak short-wave. This is producing light rain across much of the region.
Rain totals will be light, for the most part. Radar did show slightly higher totals over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
There was an east to west band of showers. I did not notice any lightning on satellite, but there could be a rumble or two of thunder.
You can see those heavier showers on this 7 AM radar screen grab.
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This system will quickly move off to the east. That will leave the rest of the day dry (once it exits).
We are in a rather messy upper level flow.
That means a few more chances of showers over the coming days.
One of those events will arrive tonight and tomorrow. This time, it will be a bit further south. That means the rain chances will be higher across southern Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Once again, I can’t completely rule out a rumble of thunder, but severe weather is not a concern.
Yet another fast moving weak system will move across the region Friday night and Saturday. A couple of showers will be possible with it, as well.
We are under a cool temperature pattern and that is also going to continue. As a matter of fact, cool or coolish weather will be with us into next week.
Temperatures may dip back down into the 30s next week (for overnight lows). I continue to monitor frost chances. Too soon to know if that is a concern.
Here is the GFS model temperature anomaly animation. Watch just how long the below average temperatures continue.
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The summer forecast has been updated. June through August.
Drought concerns are significant for a large portion of the United States. Whether that drought impacts our region will need to be monitored.
Typically, severe thunderstorms surround the ring of drought.
I am monitoring to see where the heat ridge sets up shop. Large thunderstorm complexes will impact areas around the edge of the ridge.
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Current drought monitor map.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 13th through April 19th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers April 20th through April 26th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers April 27th through May 10th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
April precipitation outlook
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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