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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Thursday through Thursday
1. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thursday. Thursday night. Saturday and Saturday night. I am watching next Tuesday and Wednesday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Severe weather is possible Thursday and Thursday evening. Large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible if the surface low tracks over our region. Stay tuned. See the severe weather blog. Click here to read a special severe weather blog post concerning Thursday’s severe weather potential.
Another chance of severe thunderstorms Saturday (lower confidence on that).
I will keep an eye on next Tuesday/Wednesday.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain Thursday/Thursday evening.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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March 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could become severe. Locally heavy rain. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% MO Bootheel ~ 100% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% South IL ~ 100% West KY ~ 100% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: At any given point during the day. It will not rain all day. There will be intervals of rain bands/storms.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 7:12 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Becoming windy. Showers and thunderstorms ending early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% South IL ~ 50% West KY ~ 60% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Ending west to east.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM. Coverage decreases as we move through the overnight hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 25 to 40 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe early in the evening. Strong wind gusts possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 3:46 PM
Moonset: 5:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 7:13 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:57 PM
Moonset: 5:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 40% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 50% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: At any given point in the night.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest becoming west northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce strong wind and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 6:09 PM
Moonset: 6:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Clearing. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest and north at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Clearing and colder. Frost is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:09 PM
Moonset: 6:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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March 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 7:15 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 10% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:35 PM
Moonset: 7:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given time of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 7:16 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 40% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 40% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given time of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:49 PM
Moonset: 8:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 30% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given time of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 40% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 40% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given time of the night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:04 PM
Moonset: 8:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 28th. Click here to read a special severe weather blog post concerning Thursday’s severe weather potential.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Thursday evening. Saturday afternoon and night. I will monitor next Tuesday/Wednesday.
A severe weather event may unfold in the region. This is a conditional risk. Meaning, the atmosphere has to destabilize after tonight and tomorrow morning’s rain and clouds.
If the atmosphere can re-charge then all modes of severe weather will occur. Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes.
What is a severe storm?
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Weather advice:
Severe storms are possible Thursday. Heavy rain is possible. Avoid flooded roadways.
Make sure your Beau Dodson Weather app is turned on. Check it. Remember, a watch means to monitor updates. A WARNING means to seek shelter immediately. Storms are incoming and could cause property damage.
Monitor Saturday afternoon and evening. A few strong storms are again possible. Lower confidence on that portion of the forecast.
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Weather Discussion
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- Windy conditions.
- Thunderstorm chance.
- Locally severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.
- Dry Friday and Saturday morning.
- Shower chances Saturday/Saturday night.
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BOTTOM LINE
Timing.
The risk of severe weather will be greatest between 2 PM and 8 PM tonight.
Concerns.
A conditional severe weather risk. That means that there remain questions about whether the atmosphere will become unstable enough to produce severe thunderstorms.
If the atmosphere can recover, then damaging wind, golf ball size hail, and tornadoes will be possible.
The risk is higher across western Kentucky and Tennessee vs other areas. That does not mean other areas won’t see severe storms (including tornadoes).
Pay close attention today.
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Thunderstorms will be producing locally heavy rain and lightning, as well.
Storms will move at speeds of 70 mph this afternoon and this evening. Fast movers. That will not give you much time to see shelter.
It will be dry Friday into Saturday morning.
I am watching Saturday afternoon and evening for thunderstorms. A few storms could be severe. This is a change from previous forecasts.
Today’s concentration, however, will be on what is happening later today and this evening.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 25th through March 31st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers April 1st through April 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers April 6th through April 19th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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