Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars.  Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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March 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:   Windy, at times.  Showers likely.  A thunderstorm is possible.  A band of rain will push west to east through the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90%    MO Bootheel ~ 100%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80%     South IL ~ 80%    West KY ~ 80%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80%    NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous, at times.
Timing of the rain: At any point during the day.  Coverage will increase from west to east.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°    SE MO 63° to 66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°    NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusts above 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.   Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index:  4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy.   A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly early.  Ending west to east.  Partial clearing overnight from west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40%    MO Bootheel ~ 30%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50%     South IL ~ 50%    West KY ~ 40%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50%     NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early in the night.  Perhaps a final band of rain pushing west to east.
Timing of the rain:  Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°     SE  MO  48° to 54°     South IL  48° to 54°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54°    West KY 53° to 56°     NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.   Perhaps lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the radars.
Moonrise:  1:35 PM
Moonset:  3:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.  More clouds during the morning vs the afternoon.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near the Indiana border) ~ 0%    NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72°    SE MO 68° to 70°    South IL  66° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  66° to 68°    West KY 68° to 72°    NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  5.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures may rise overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70%    MO Bootheel ~ 70%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60%     South IL ~ 60%    West KY ~ 60%    NW KY (near the Indiana border) ~ 60%    NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Low chances before 12 AM.  Rising chances after 12 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58°     SE  MO  52° to 55°     South IL  50° to 55°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°    West KY 52° to 55°     NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed:   Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  2:39 PM
Moonset:  4:40 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms.  Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80%    MO Bootheel ~ 80%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80%     South IL ~ 80%    West KY ~ 70%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%     NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain: At any given point during the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70°    SE MO 64° to 66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°    NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Monitor updates concerning thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Have a plan B.
UV Index:  4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 7:12 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:   Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Tapering as the night wears on.  Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60%    MO Bootheel ~ 60%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60%     South IL ~ 60%    West KY ~ 60%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70%     NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight.  Coverage decreases as we move through the overnight hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     SE  MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 43° to 46°     NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest and west at 15 to 35 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise:  3:46 PM
Moonset:  5:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°    SE MO 58° to 64°    South IL  58° to 64°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°    West KY 62° to 65°    NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 7:13  PM
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Friday night Forecast:   Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     SE  MO  40° to 44°     South IL  40° to 44°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 42° to 45°     NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  Southerly at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  4:57 PM
Moonset:  5:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    MO Bootheel ~ 0%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0%     South IL ~ 0%    West KY ~ 0%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%     NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°    SE MO 65° to 70°    South IL  65° to 70°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68°    West KY 66° to 70°    NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6.  High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 7:14  PM
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Saturday night Forecast:   Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    MO Bootheel ~ 20%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20%     South IL ~ 20%    West KY ~ 20%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%     NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the rain:  After 9 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°     SE  MO  44° to 46°     South IL  43° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 44° to 46°     NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  6:09 PM
Moonset:  6:30 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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March 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10%    MO Bootheel ~ 10%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10%     South IL ~ 10%    West KY ~ 10%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%     NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the rain:  At any given point during the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°    SE MO 62° to 65°    South IL  62° to 65°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°    West KY 63° to 66°    NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph.  Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index:  7.  High.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 7:14  PM
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Sunday night Forecast:   Clearing and colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    MO Bootheel ~ 20%   I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20%     South IL ~ 20%    West KY ~ 20%    NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%     NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46°     SE  MO  38° to 42°     South IL  38° to 42°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44°    West KY 40° to 45°     NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise:  6:09 PM
Moonset:  6:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

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These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

 

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through March 28th.  I am monitoring Thursday for a chance of intense thunderstorms.  This is a highly conditional severe weather risk.  If the low stays to our south then we won’t have severe thunderstorms.

If the low tracks over us or north of us, then severe weather chances increase.

What is a severe storm?

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Rain is pushing into the region from the west.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars.  Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

7 AM radar looked like this.  You can see the rain.

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Low pressure will pass to our west today.  Remember, low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.  The low is in Kansas and Oklahoma as 0f 7 AM Tuesday morning.

Notice how the clouds curl?  Pulling moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

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A wind advisory today for portions of the area.

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This rain will push east to west today.  Rain totals of 0.10″ to 0.50″ will be the forecast totals.

I can’t rule out isolated lightning.  Severe storms are not in the cards today.

If there is some clearing this afternoon, then there could be a strong storm with 30 to 40 mph wind and pea size hail.  Below severe limits.

We dry out tonight and tomorrow.

A larger system takes shape Wednesday night over Texas and moves into our region Thursday into Thursday night.

This system will spread widespread moderate rain (some heavy) into our region.

Rain chances will begin to ramp up Wednesday night.  Widespread rain is likely Thursday and Thursday night.

This system is similar to last weeks system.

The track of the low is key to the risk of severe thunderstorms.  At this time, I am concerned about areas that were hit hard by last weeks tornado outbreak.  Areas to our south/southeast.

Our region will once again have a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms.  What does conditional mean?  It means that a few ingredients are certain.

The SPC has us in a level one and two risk.  Five is the highest risk.

Light green means non-severe storms.  Dark green is a level one risk.  Perhaps a few severe storms.  Level two is a higher risk.  It means severe storms could have higher coverage.

Clouds and ongoing widespread rain may help keep CAPE values down.  Think of CAPE as energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

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Remember, those towering cauliflower looking storms in the summer?  Those are thunderstorms.

Of course, they can occur year-round.

Updrafts are what make thunderstorms so tall.  That is also what gives it that cauliflower look.

Storms also have downdrafts.

Without updrafts, you can not have thunderstorms.

CAPE helps increase updrafts.  Higher CAPE values usually mean larger/faster updraft speeds.  Thus, severe storms can occur.

If CAPE levels are lower then the risk of severe weather is lower.

Let me show you what the models are thinking.

Two camps.  The EC camp and the GFS camp.  Both of these models have different ideas.

The EC is farther north than the GFS model.  The further away they are, the less confidence in the forecast.

The good news is that there is a Mean on the EC and GFS.  See that below.  They are very close to agreement.

CAPE values on the ensembles.

Again, remember, each square is one run of the ensemble.

The colors represent CAPE.  For now, we are not paying attention to “how much” CAPE, but rather whether we have any CAPE to work with.

The EC model shows some CAPE Thursday afternoon and evening in our region.

Thursday morning (it even shows some CAPE during the AM hours)

Afternoon

Thursday evening

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GEFS (GFS model)

Thursday afternoon

Thursday late Afternoon

Thursday evening

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So there is some CAPE in the models.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

The CIPS analog severe weather forecast is showing some potential, as well.

CIPS runs past events and compares them with upcoming events.  Sometimes, you can find potential by looking at past events.

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I am forecasting a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms.  Conditional means that everything needs to come together in order to have severe storms.

Clouds and rain could interfere with that.  That is what happened last Wednesday.  We had an outbreak of tornadoes to our south and southeast.  Clouds and rain kept our CAPE levels low.  We ended up with no severe reports.

Will that happen again?  It is possible, but we have to monitor it.

Monitor updates moving forward.

That rain event could produce pockets of one to two inches of rain. Perhaps more.  We will need to monitor this since rivers and streams are high.

The area will dry out Friday into Saturday.

A fast moving system may bring some showers late Saturday night into Sunday.  For now, I have low-end rain chances during that time period.  Confidence in the last weekend system is still rather low.  Signals are mixed on that one.

Let me review some of the yesterday’s discussion on weather maps and why the track of the area of low pressure is important.

Let’s talk weather maps.

A cyclone is an area of low pressure.  Low pressure is usually associated with clouds, rain, snow, storms, and so on.

High pressure is typically dry weather.

You have a warm front and a cold front.

The low pressure center is the center of the entire storm system.

A warm front usually extends east of the low.  That warm front is where severe storms can occur.  Along and south of the warm front.

Then, you have your cold front.  The cold front usually extends south of the low.

Ahead of the cold front is where you can have rain and storms.  Sometimes severe.

So, a weather map looks like this.

When you hear me talk about an area of low pressure and the track of that low, this is why.

It is important as to where the low tracks.  A low that tracks west/northwest of us, places us in the warm sector.

The warm sector is where severe storms are typically located.

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Cold fronts push air upward.  That forms clouds.  That forms showers and thunderstorms.

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As we head into spring, we will be talking about low pressure centers, warm fronts, and cold fronts.  Quite often!

To dig deeper, we use ensembles.  Ensembles help smooth out the differences in the data/different models.  In theory, at least.

Now, let me show you some ensemble data.

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First the MEAN from the EC and GFS models.  The Mean would be from all the model runs (put together).

EC model

We are looking at the track of the low pressure center.

Thursday evening

Then it moves into southern Illinois and deepens.

GEFS model

It tracks the low into western Kentucky.  A slight shift southward from the previous run (24 hours ago).

The EC and GEFS seem to agree on the Mean.

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This is the EC model.

Over the past 24 hours, the EC and GFS models have come into better agreement as to where the low will track.

This is increasing forecast confidence in the final outcome.

This is Thursday afternoon.  Those L’s represent the area of low pressure.  Each L is one run of the model.  There are dozens of EC ensemble members.

Each L represents one member.  The more they agree (tightly clustered) the higher the confidence in the forecast.

Clustered over northern Arkansas (but some spread).

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Thursday night.  Clustered over Illinois and Indiana.

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Early Friday morning.  Clustered to our northeast.

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Let’s look at the GEFS (GFS model ensembles)

Thursday afternoon.

Remember, each L represents one run of the GEFS ensembles.  The more L’s that are located in close proximity means the higher the confidence on the track.

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Thursday night

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Late Thursday night/Friday morning

 

 

For the entire week.  WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.

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There is a low-end risk of flash flooding Thursday and Thursday night, as well.  This is the WPC/NOAA map for excessive rainfall.

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Let us look at some more rain total forecasts from the different models.

A blend of models through Saturday night

 

NAM 3K model through Thursday 1 PM

 

 

The NAM model through Friday

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The GFS (new version) model through Friday night.

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The EC model through Sunday

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.