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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning today. Small risk of lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No. Small hail is possible today (not severe). Cold air funnels are possible today. They rarely touch down.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. Rain, over the last 24 hours, may have caused some issues. Avoid flooded roadways.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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March 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm is possible. Turning colder. There may be some reports of small hail or cold air funnels (harmless). Temperatures falling through the day. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% NW TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 52° SE MO 44° north to 52° south South IL 52° north to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. More numerous over our northern counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Small hail. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 7:06 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of light rain. Rain may mix with snow or sleet with no impact. Clearing late. Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:49 AM
Moonset: 11:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds from time to time. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 50° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy frost if the wind dies down. A freeze possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 26° to 32° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 32° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:22 AM
Moonset: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 58° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 56° to 58° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:00 AM
Moonset: 1:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Partly cloudy during the afternoon
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:45 AM
Moonset: 2:09 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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March 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A shower possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 50° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° West KY 48° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:37 PM
Moonset: 3:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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March 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% NW TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 48° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 1:35 PM
Moonset: 3:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 20th. Small hail and cold air funnels are possible Thursday. Cold air funnels rarely touch down.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Avoid flooded roadways.
Weather Discussion
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- Scattered showers.
- Much colder. Frost?
- Monitoring rain chances next week.
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A severe weather outbreak struck several states Tuesday and Tuesday night. Numerous tornadoes caused damage across Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama.
Some of those were on the ground for quite a few miles.
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Time lapse of the tornado that moved thru Silas, AL yesterday afternoon. Speed is increased 6x… or about 17 minutes of video condensed to 2 1/2 minutes. #alwx #Tornado Higher res will be on my Photojournalist Brian Emfinger page. pic.twitter.com/v0RoL5zYT8
— Brian Emfinger (@brianemfinger) March 18, 2021
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A little video of the tornado near Silas, AL #alwx #tornado #drone pic.twitter.com/iWjHri2s9v
— Brian Emfinger (@brianemfinger) March 17, 2021
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👀 WOW! 🌪️ Tornado captured on camera this afternoon in Laurel, Mississippi. Debris can be seen circulating around vortex.
🎥 Video from Shalea Jones. pic.twitter.com/qe1lnrm6uk
— Brantly Keiek (@BrantlyWx) March 17, 2021
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RETWEET: Incredible visuals are coming in from #Mississippi today as storms 🌪️🌪️ rip across the south. Check out this #tornado in Strengthford, MS from this afternoon. #MSwx #tornadowarning pic.twitter.com/HuXSrHodqS
— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) March 17, 2021
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Today is the anniversary of the famous Tri-State Tornado. One of the longest tracked tornadoes on record. One of the deadliest on record.
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OTD in 1925: The great "Tri-State Tornado" occurred, the deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The storm claimed 695 lives, and caused seventeen million dollars property damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long from East-Central Missouri to southern Indiana . pic.twitter.com/Z5jN5d1DnJ
— James Spann (@spann) March 18, 2021
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Thankfully, our conditional risk of severe weather stayed in check.
If you remember, from my posts, the conditional risk was conditional because of rain and clouds. If rain and clouds were widespread then the risk of severe weather would be lower.
There was widespread rain Tuesday. Clouds were thick, as well (for the most part). This kept temperatures down. This kept dew points down.
The primary warm front stayed well to our south. That primary warm front is where most of the severe weather occurred. Along and south of the warm front.
The low tracked fairly far south, as well. Normally, for widespread severe weather in our region, you would want the low to track further north. Perhaps through central Missouri into central and northern Illinois.
Here is where the low tracked.
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You will see me mention conditional severe weather risks over the coming months. Conditional simply means all conditions must come together in order for there to be severe weather.
An upper level low will pass through the region today. This low will provide enough lift for rain showers. Some small hail may also occur. Cold air funnels are possible. Cold air funnels rarely touch down. They are common in our region.
The system will pull away tonight. Perhaps ending as a wet snowflake or pellet of sleet. No impact. No accumulation. No concerns.
It will turn much colder tonight and tomorrow night. Lows will dip into the 20s and 30s. Frost conditions are possible. A freeze is possible.
The coldest night will be Friday night.
I am watching rain chances Tuesday and Tuesday night of next week. For now, this does not appear to be a severe weather event. Monitor updates, as always.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 18th through March 24th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 25th through March 31st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers March 30th through April 12th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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