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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Sunday night and Monday. Lightning will be possible Wednesday/Wednesday night. Lightning will be possible next Monday night.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some storms could be severe.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Locally heavy rain will be possible Sunday night/Monday morning and again Wednesday/Wednesday night.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Becoming widespread from west to east. Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous from west to east as the night wears on.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 8:04 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly early in the day). Ending west to east as the day wears on. A few afternoon storms may redevelop. Lower confidence on the afternoon storms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% MO Bootheel ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% NW TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast becoming east southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Becoming scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the day. Then, monitor radars in the afternoon.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds overnight. A chance of a light shower early.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset: 9:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A light shower will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 8:53 AM
Moonset: 10:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mild. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% NW TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong thunderstorms will be possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 7:05 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 54° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Strong thunderstorms will be possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check updates/radars.
Moonrise: 9:20 AM
Moonset: 11:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% NW TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph behind the front (we will have to watch the timing of the front. It may move through Wednesday night)
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 7:06 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Clearing overnight. Cooler. A slight chance of a few remaining showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
Moonrise: 9:49 AM
Moonset: 11:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Friday night Forecast: A few clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:22 AM
Moonset: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:00 AM
Moonset: 1:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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March 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:45 AM
Moonset: 2:09 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 20th. I am monitoring Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some thunderstorms could be intense.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Monitor river crest levels.
Strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday/Wednesday night. Monitor updates.
Weather Discussion
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- Rain chances this week.
- Monitoring the chance of strong thunderstorms Wednesday/Wednesday night.
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Two primary weather makers over the next few days.
The first one will be today into Monday morning.
A cold front will push into the region from the west. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move west to east this afternoon and tonight. Arriving in southeast Missouri first.
You can see that on the Hrrr future-cast radar. A band of showers and thunderstorms moving west to east.
Click images and animations to enlarge them.
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The band of showers and thunderstorms could produce some locally heavy rain and gusty wind. Rain totals of 0.30″ to 0.60″ will occur with this band. Pockets of 0.60″ to 1.00″ possible.
This will likely not cause significant flooding issues.
A few remaining showers or thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. For the most part, the rain will be over by then.
I did include a slight chance of showers Tuesday. For the most part, however, expect dry conditions.
I will keep an eye on a warm front Tuesday night. I can’t rule out a few storms forming along it.
A stronger system will push across our region Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will have higher dew points to work with. Wind fields will be strong. There will be some instability to work with.
A few of the thunderstorms could be severe. There remain questions about the track of the area of low pressure. If it tracks too far south then the severe weather threat will remain south of my forecast counties.
For now, I have a chance of intense thunderstorms Wednesday/Wednesday night. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary concern. We will have to watch the tornado threat.
We will need to monitor dew points. Dew point is a measure of moisture. Once we reach the 58 degree mark, we start to think about severe thunderstorms.
Dew points in the 60s represent more than enough moisture for severe thunderstorms. Of course, there are other ingredients, as well.
NAM model guidance. Dew point forecast animation. This shows you Tuesday into Wednesday night.
You can see the tongue of 60+ dew points nudging into our region.
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The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined the region for a risk of severe weather Wednesday/Wednesday night.
The risk is higher to our south, but we are still included in the risk zone. Higher probabilities across eastern Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama.
You can see that here.
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Analogs (previous weather events) show a strong signal for severe thunderstorms over the Mississippi Valley. The risk is higher over portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. It does extend into our region. Let’s pay close attention to Wednesday’s forecast. Still early for certainties.
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Tornado risk
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Hail risk
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Damaging wind risk
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Another graphic. This shows you were thunderstorm chances are highest.
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Rain will end late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Perhaps a few remaining showers Thursday. That will depend on how fast the system pulls away. Some of the models show the low lingering a bit longer.
Cooler behind the Wednesday system. Overnight lows may dip into the 30s behind the system. I can’t rule out frost later this week.
For now, I have Friday, Saturday, and Sunday dry.
I am watching another system next Monday night into Wednesday. Long way off on that one.
It has been damp over the last few weeks.
You can see our region is wetter than average.
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Drought monitor shows widespread drought to our west. Many summer forecasts show this drought spreading into the central United States over the coming months. How far east will need to be monitored.
Many summer forecasts are hot and dry.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 14th through March 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 21st through March 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers March 26th through April 8th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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