.
Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
A WIDE range of weather conditions tonight into Sunday night.
Rain chances will vary greatly. See the daily details further down in the blog (and the future-cast radars).
.
.
.
.
Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Wednesday night into the weekend.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Some flooding can’t be ruled out.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
.
..
.
March 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 15 to 35 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms possible over western and northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Lesser chances as you move south and east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly north)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 5:04 AM
Moonset: 3:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
March 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 50% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% NW TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
.
Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% NW TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 5:40 AM
Moonset: 4:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
March 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% NW TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
.
Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% MO Bootheel ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 6:10 AM
Moonset: 5:23 PM
The phase of the moon: New
.
March 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% NW TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Cool. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% MO Bootheel ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
Moonset: 6:23 PM
The phase of the moon: New
.
March 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will be more likely during the afternoon and evening vs the morning hours. Mainly along an incoming cold front. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% MO Bootheel ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% NW TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated AM. Scattered to numerous PM.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% MO Bootheel ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% NW TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 25 mph becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and have a plan B
Moonrise: 8:04 AM
Moonset: 8:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
March 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A light shower possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
.
Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset: 9:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
March 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:53 AM
Moonset: 10:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
.
.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
Today through March 15th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
.
The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
..
Weather advice:
Avoid flood roadways.
Monitor river crest forecasts.
Weather Discussion
-
- Increasing chances for locally heavy rain.
- Windy, at times.
First, we have gusty winds to deal with today into tomorrow. Winds may occasionally gust above 35 mph. If you are going to be out on area lakes or rivers then use care.
These winds are associated with a tightening pressure gradient over the Central United States. Barometric pressure gradients increase wind speed.
Not a huge deal, but it could be an issue for some. Use care if you are burning brush, as well.
The next concern will be a series of rain events.
Keep in mind, there will be a WIDE range of rain probabilities from north to south in our region beginning tonight and lasting into Sunday night/Monday morning.
See the future-cast radars for a general idea of what to expect.
This forecast has been a bit of a headache when it comes to the timing of the rain and the rain totals.
I have a going forecast of a widespread one to two inches of rain area-wide between tonight and Sunday night/Monday.
Then, I have bands of greater than two inches, as well. Perhaps several bands of two to four inches. We don’t need this much rain, of course.
The ground is still wet from recent snow and rain events.
Thus, the end result will be flooding or flash flooding. Avoid flooded roadways.
There will be thunderstorms embedded in the rain, as well. That will help enhance rain totals. Especially, if training occurs.
Training is where showers/storms move repeatedly over the same area. We call that training precipitation. This too can enhance rain totals.
Model guidance has been fairly consistent in developing a band of heavy rain across southern Missouri into southern Illinois. There is, however, disagreement on just how far south to push the heavier rain totals.
A flood or flash flood watch may need to be issued, at some point, for the area. The NWS will decide that. Either way, the forecast will remain the same.
See the graphics below. You can see that there is some agreement about Missouri and Illinois totals. Less agreement further south.
The problem will be the placement of a frontal boundary that will waver across our region. Small shifts north and south will impact rain totals. Keep that in mind.
Rain chances will peak, area-wide, Thursday into Friday night and then again Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will sweep across the region Sunday afternoon/night. Gusty wind and lightning will be possible. For now, I do not have severe thunderstorms in my forecast. I will keep an eye on it. If we had higher dew-points then severe weather would be a concern. For now, monitor updates.
The Storm Prediction Center agrees with me. They have the threat of severe weather to our west. Again, monitor updates in case there are adjustments.
The Sunday event is still five days away. The yellow zone is where the Storm Prediction Center has a risk of severe weather Sunday.
.
Let me show you some of the forecast rain totals from different models and the NWS.
WPC/NOAA rainfall totals forecast through Monday.
.
EC model rainfall forecast totals through Monday.
.
GFS model rainfall forecast totals through Monday.
.
There are now two versions of the GFS model. Here is the second version.
.
We do have a risk of flash flooding Thursday/Thursday night.
The WPC has placed us in a low-end risk of excessive rainfall.
.
The, they have a higher risk Friday into Friday night. The yellow zone is the higher risk area (green is lower). Either way, locally heavy rain could cause issues.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
.
This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
.
This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
No rain in the forecast
.
This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 10th through March 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
.
This outlook covers March 17th through March 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
.
.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers March 23rd through April 5th
.
Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
.
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
.
February Precipitation Outlook
.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
.
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
.
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
