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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Monitor updates concerning a cold front towards the middle of next week.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Heavy rain is possible towards the middle of next week.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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March 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 65° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 5:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:07 PM
Moonset: 9:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 5:53 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 28° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 9:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 5:54 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 30° to 34° South IL 28° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:19 AM
Moonset: 10:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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March 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM.
Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:29 AM
Moonset: 11:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:34 AM
Moonset: 12:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 8. 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:31 AM
Moonset: 1:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. An isolated late night shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:22 AM
Moonset: 2:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Monitor the chance of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty. Becoming west/northwest overnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Monitor the chance of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 5:04 AM
Moonset: 3:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 10th. I am watching the middle of next week. I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Avoid flood roadways.
Weather Discussion
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- No significant weather concerns.
- No severe storms. No winter storms.
Early March is starting out quiet.
The end of February was a mess.
No weather concerns through Sunday. Just a few clouds Friday.
I am watching next Wednesday. A cold front should bring rain and thunderstorms. Too soon to know if severe thunderstorms or flooding will be a concern.
Monitor updates.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
No rain in the forecast
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
The system later today and tonight. Weak event.
Short-range. The GFS pops some light sprinkles along the incoming Wednesday cold front. Do not expect much if anything at all.
No rain in the forecast
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the forecast
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers March 3rd through March 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 10th through March 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers March 16th through March 29th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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