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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Not at this time.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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February 21, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of afternoon rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 42° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 46° West KY 44° to 52° NW TN 48° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely before midnight. Ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Black ice possible if moisture refreezes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 12:06 PM
Moonset: 2:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Morning clouds departing off to the east. Becoming sunny west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 48° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:55 PM
Moonset: 3:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Patchy AM fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 5:44 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:51 PM
Moonset: 4:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Milder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 2:54 PM
Moonset: 5:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of early morning showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early in the morning
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? West roadways early in the morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 5:46 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 24° SE MO 22° to 24° South IL 22° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24° West KY 22° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:01 PM
Moonset: 5:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 5:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:11 PM
Moonset: 6:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Confidence in rain chances Saturday are low. I need to monitor a possible cold front during that time-frame. For now, I introduced low-end rain chances.
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 5:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 7:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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RETURNS MARCH 1, 2021
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through February 28th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Monitor for the chance of fog over the coming days. Warmer air moving over cold ground conditions can produce dense fog.
Snow will melt. Rivers and streams may rise.
In the longer range, we will need to monitor any heavy rain chances. We don’t want river flooding.
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Weather Discussion
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- A calmer weather pattern than the last three weeks.
- Warming trend will help melt the snow and ice.
- Patchy dense fog.
- Rain chances today. Slight chances Wednesday/Wednesday night. Watching Saturday for additional rain chances.
The big weather story, over the coming week, will be increasing temperatures. It appears we will break into the 50s this week.
Ground cold conditions (with snow) could temper those temperatures, but for now, it appears 50s are a good bet.
That is welcome news for those dealing with ice jams on the roofs. It is also welcome news for those who are looking for a hint of spring.
Speaking of spring, it is not far off. We will start to think about severe weather as we move through the coming weeks.
Don’t forget to make sure your Beau Dodson Weather app is on. Make sure you have not logged out.
Remember, we send messages to the app. Verizon and ATT stopped sending out (reliably) the texts. Move to the app.
You can find the app links at the bottom of the page and on the www.weathertalk.com website.
A fast moving cold front will bring some rain showers to the region this afternoon and especially tonight. Rain totals will likely remain below 0.25″ at most locations. Not a big deal.
You can see the beginning of that system on the 10:30 AM radar. Snow well to our north. Rain will eventually form over our region (mainly tonight).
You can see clouds building to our west on satellite, as well.
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Watch for fog tonight and tomorrow morning (Sunday night/Monday morning).
Dry Monday through Wednesday morning. No major weather concerns. Perhaps some fog.
Another fast moving cold front will push across the region Wednesday night. A few showers may accompany this front. Again, rain will be light.
Slightly cooler Thursday and Friday behind that front.
I am watching the weekend into early next week for additional rain or rain/snow chances. We will need to keep an eye on model trends. Some are showing another snow event. Too soon to make a call on that. I will be monitoring.
To make you feel better, let me show you some high temperature maps.
Some of the models show middle 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. The snow cover may temper that. These maps show a bit lower. Still, better than recent weeks.
Monday
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Tuesday
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Wednesday
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Thursday
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
The system later today and tonight. Weak event.
The GFS shows another system (or two) towards the weekend into next week. Rain and snow on the GFS Something that I am monitoring.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
System one. Today/tonight.
The long range EC shows another systems towards the weekend into next week. It shows rain. Locally heavy.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 19th through February 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 26th through March 4th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers March 5th through March 18th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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