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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Wednesday to Thursday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Possible. Early Saturday morning, snow may develop (before changing to rain) over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Brief accumulation is possible. Temperatures will quickly rise above freezing Saturday morning.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday and Saturday night.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible Saturday. Monitor updates.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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January 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Morning clouds departing. Becoming sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° SE MO 34° to 36° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Late at night, some clouds may develop from the southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 23° to 26° NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: Variable direction at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:13 PM
Moonset: 7:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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January 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:17 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of snow over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Mainly the far northwest counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 26° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 7:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A thunderstorm is possible. Snow may develop early in the morning (mainly over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois). Let’s keep an eye on AM temperatures. If snow forms, it would then turn to rain as temperatures rise.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor AM hours for snow over MO/IL.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 5:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. A thunderstorm is possible. Rain tapering west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 40° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 7:30 PM
Moonset: 8:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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January 31, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly early)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 5:19 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:38 PM
Moonset: 9:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 34° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 5:19 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Clearing west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 22° to 25° South IL 22° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 26° West KY 24° to 26° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:46 PM
Moonset: 9:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 5:21 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:56 PM
Moonset: 10:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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February 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:23 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 10:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through January 31st. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Rain Saturday. No major concerns.
Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Dry today into Friday night.
- Rain arrives Saturday. Snow early in the day far northern counties.
- A few remaining showers Sunday.
- Dry Monday and Tuesday.
Well, some of you picked up snow Wednesday. Mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. One to three inches of snow fell.
Western Kentucky and western Tennessee picked up none to an inch or so. It was warmer in those areas. Thus, the snow did not last long.
Temperatures will marginal for accumulation.
Dry weather will prevail today as high pressure takes over. Dry through tomorrow.
Late Friday night, our next storm system will push into the region.
Once again, this area of low pressure will push to our north. That means we are in the warm sector. Thus, mostly rain.
Snow may develop early Saturday morning over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If it does snow, it won’t last. Temperatures will rise above freezing. The snow would turn to rain. I will keep an eye on trends.
Widespread rain will move into the region Saturday. A few thunderstorms will be possible, as well. Instability is lacking. Severe weather appears unlikely.
Rain totals of 0.5 to 1.00″ are likely.
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The rain will continue into Saturday night. It will end Sunday morning west to east. A few remaining showers Sunday.
I am watching model trends to see if rain showers or rain and snow showers will linger into Sunday night over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Dry weather will then prevail Monday and Tuesday.
I am watching for rain next Wednesday/Thursday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers January 28th through February 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 4th through February 10th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers February 9th through February 22nd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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