December 30, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours.

The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.

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Thursday into Thursday

1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. There is chance of freezing rain Thursday night over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois before changing to all rain. Ice accumulation of 0.05″ to 0.10″.

2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday night and Friday.

3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. I am watching Thursday night into Friday. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out. The main concern will be over western Kentucky and Tennessee.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. There will be locally heavy rain Thursday night and Friday. I can’t rule out some sharp rises in streams. Monitor.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Unlikely.

December 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A few showers from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. Likely dry elsewhere. Rain chances will begin to redevelop from south to north late today into tonight. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: It will vary from north to south. Dry north. Wet south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms developing. A chance of freezing rain at the beginning over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Rising temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 8:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly the first half of the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 55° to 62° NW TN 58° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East wind 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day. Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor western Kentucky and Tennessee for a few intense thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 30° to 35° South IL 30° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:27 PM
Moonset: 9:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

January 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a light rain or snow shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a light rain or snow shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few wet roadways. I will monitor the temperatures in case we do have some light precipitation.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:33 PM
Moonset: 9:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

January 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 26° to 32° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:40 PM
Moonset: 10:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

January 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 52° NW TN 46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 38° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:47 PM
Moonset: 11:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

January 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 11:55 PM
Moonset: 11:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through January 3rd: A few storms could be intense Thursday night into Friday. Monitor updates.

The primary concern will be western Kentucky and Tennessee.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Ice is possible over our far northern counties Thursday night (changing to rain).

A few intense storms are possible Thursday night and Friday morning. Locally heavy rain, as well.

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Weather Discussion

1. Rain chances.
2. Turning colder. A wintry mix for some of my forecast counties.
3. A few intense storms Friday (KY/TN).

Wednesday night into Friday

There may be quite a bit of dry air moving in from the north. If that happens then there won’t hardly be any wintry precipitation. Keep that in mind.

The main weather story continues to be the cold front pushing across the region.

The front will push into Arkansas and Tennessee by tomorrow morning. It will then move back north as a warm front Thursday night.

Widespread rain has been occurring across our region today. The rain has been slowly shifting east/southeast.

Colder air is pushing in from the northwest.

This colder air will make it to the Ohio River by late tonight. It will then linger into Thursday morning.

There is a considerable amount of dry air behind the cold front. That may help diminish precipitation over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois tonight into tomorrow morning.

Widespread rain is likely to continue from the Missouri Bootheel into Tennessee and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border (Thursday). Watch to see how far south the dry air extends. The will shut the rain down.

I did lower rain chances today (Thursday) over much of the region.

Temperatures will slip down to or below 32 degrees over at least the northern half of the region tonight and tomorrow morning.

If precipitation continues then a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will develop.

Precipitation totals will be light and mainly confined to elevated surfaces. Bridges, decks, trees, and so on.

Ice accumulation of a trace to 0.10″ and snow totals of less than 0.50″ are anticipated.

Again, if the dry air wins out then there won’t even be that.

The cold air should push to Butler County, Missouri, and then northeast towards Paducah, Kentucky, and then northeast towards Owensboro, Kentucky. Near and north of that line is where a light wintry mix will be possible.

Again, this is not a big winter storm for our local area. It is more of a nuisance than anything else.

An area of low pressure will develop over Texas tonight and move northward into Missouri by Thursday night and Friday morning.

This will bring a surge of warmer air into our region. It will also prolong our rain chances.

A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night and Friday morning. A few storms could be severe Friday. Mainly over Kentucky/Tennessee. Monitor updates.

A fast moving system will bring a chance of light rain and snow Saturday into Saturday night. Mostly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Little or no accumulation is anticipated.

Sunday should be dry.

Here is where a little bit of sleet and freezing rain may occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Again, this is a light event and mainly on elevated surfaces.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.