Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day.  Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours. 

The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.

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3.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

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December 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. A chance of scattered rain and snow showers.  Snow showers would be early AM hours.  Chilly temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°    SE MO 43° to  46°    South IL  43° to 46°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  43° to 46°    West KY 43° to 46°    NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast wind becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Monitor early AM hours in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A few rain and rain/snow showers (mainly the southeast half of the region, which would be Kentucky and Tennessee).  Ending as the night wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36°     SE MO  30° to 34°     South IL  32° to 34°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°    West KY 33° to 36°     NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 0 to 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.  More numerous as you travel east of LBL in western Kentucky.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 7:28 PM
Moonset:  9:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny. A chance of a few showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50°    SE MO 44° to  46°    South IL  45° to 48°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 48°    NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Light northwest wind 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Perhaps a few morning wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Some clouds.  Most likely the rain will have ended.  I will keep an eye on the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34°     SE MO  26° to 30°     South IL  26° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32°    West KY 30° to 34°     NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:29 PM
Moonset:  10:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Most likely the rain will have ended.  I will keep an eye on the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48°    SE MO 44° to  48°    South IL  44° to 48°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 48°    West KY 44° to 48°    NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34°     SE MO  28° to 30°     South IL  28° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30°    West KY 28° to 34°     NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 PM
Moonset:  11:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds.  Patchy AM fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°    SE MO 44° to  48°    South IL  44° to 48°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 48°    West KY 44° to 48°    NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Chilly.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32°     SE  MO  25° to 30°     South IL  25° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30°    West KY 26° to 30°     NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:40 PM
Moonset:  11:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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December 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  A few AM clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°    SE MO 43° to  46°    South IL  44° to 46°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°    NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.   Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32°     SE  MO  25° to 30°     South IL  25° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30°    West KY 25° to 30°     NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 23° to 26°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:48 PM
Moonset:  12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

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December 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  A few AM clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°    SE MO 44° to  48°    South IL  44° to 48°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 48°    West KY 46° to 48°    NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.   Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32°     SE  MO  26° to 30°     South IL  26° to 30°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30°    West KY 28° to 32°     NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset:  12:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns). 

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through December 10th:   No severe thunderstorms.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Weather advice:

Updated December 2nd and 3rd

No significant weather concerns.  A light rain rain/snow event Wednesday night into Friday night.  Little or no snow accumulation.

Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

1. 1.   Cool temperatures.
   2.   Shower chances tonight into Thursday night.   Rain and rain/snow showers.

The main weather story is an area of low-pressure that will move out of the Central Plains and into the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys tonight and Thursday.

This system will spread clouds and scattered rain and snow showers into our region.

The clouds are already noted on satellite spreading into the region from Arkansas and Missouri.

Scattered showers will form Wednesday night over southeast Missouri.  It may be cold enough for some rain and snow.  Any snow accumulation would be less than 1/2″ and on grassy surfaces.

Most of the area will not experience accumulating snow.

Scattered rain showers will be with us Thursday into Thursday night, as well.  Rain totals area-wide will be less than 0.30″.  Some areas may receive no measurable rain.

The rain will push off to the east Friday.

There continues to be debate about rain chances Friday and Saturday over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky.  See the daily details at the top of the page.  Most likely it will end up dry.

Otherwise, cool temperatures will linger into next week.  Chilly nights and cool days.  Mostly below normal temperatures.

No extreme weather in the forecast.

I am watching the models that are showing another system around December 13th to 16th.  The GFS shows a larger precipitation event.  A bit soon to know how that will pan out.  Just something I am watching.

Did you see the lake effect snow in Cleveland, Ohio, yesterday?

Check out some of these photographs!

Click images to enlarge them.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  December 3rd through December 9th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers  December 10th through December 16th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

 

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″

This outlook covers December 15th through the 28th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING.  DURING THE GROWING SEASON.

 

Winter Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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And the preliminary March outlooks

Temperature departures

Precipitation

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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