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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some small adjustments may be made during the morning hours.
The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.
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Tuesday night to Tuesday night
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. A light wintry mix is possible Wednesday night into Thursday night. For now, accumulation chances appear small. Monitor updates.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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December 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly for early December with below normal temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 43° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 26° SE MO 23° to 26° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 25° West KY 23° to 26° NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:42 PM
Moonset: 7:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny AM. Some increase in clouds will be possible as the day wears on. More clouds over southeast Missouri late in the day vs elsewhere.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 48° to 54° South IL 48° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 48° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of rain and snow showers developing from the west/southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 32° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Monitor updates in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Moonrise: 6:32 PM
Moonset: 8:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of scattered rain and snow showers. Snow showers would be early AM hours. Chilly temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast wind becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Monitor early AM hours in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers becoming mixed with snow showers. Ending as the night wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered early. Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 7:28 PM
Moonset: 9:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Becoming partly sunny. Chilly temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Light northwest wind 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated rain or snow shower possible over our eastern counties. That would mostly be Evansville, Indiana southward to Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Near that area o eastward.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 32° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways (eastern counties).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 8:29 PM
Moonset: 10:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated rain or snow shower possible over our eastern counties. That would mostly be Evansville, Indiana southward to Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Near that area o eastward.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways (eastern counties).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 28° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 PM
Moonset: 11:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:40 PM
Moonset: 11:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 7th: No severe thunderstorms.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 30th and December 1st
Cold wind chills tonight (Monday night) and Tuesday morning.
I am watching rain and snow chances (light) Wednesday night into Friday.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Much colder air has arrived.
- Monitoring precipitation chances Wednesday night into Friday.
It has turned a bit wintry on us. Thankfully, we haven’t received any significant ice or snow from this system.
Here was the 1:15 PM radar and temperature map. Brrr. January like temperatures.
Click to enlarge.
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There were flurries and snow showers today. That will wind down this evening and move off to the east.
Central and eastern Kentucky received some measurable snow!
My friend Scott sent me this photograph from Versailles, Kentucky.
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It will remain windy this evening into tonight. Wind gusts above 20 mph will be possible.
With time, the wind will also die down.
Tuesday into Wednesday will deliver sunshine and chilly temperatures. It will be dry.
Our next series of systems will arrive Wednesday night into Friday morning.
Several upper-level disturbances will push across the region. This will mean increasing clouds and a chance of rain or rain/snow showers.
Southerly winds will develop Wednesday and Thursday. This will help push temperatures upward. A bit, nothing too extreme.
If there were to be some snow, it would be Wednesday night and Thursday morning and then again late Thursday night.
For the time being, it appears little or no snow accumulation with this event. As always, monitor updates. It is that time of the year.
I have the weekend dry and a bit milder. Again, nothing extreme.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 1st through December 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 8th through December 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 15th through the 28th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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