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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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Friday night to Friday night
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. A light rain and rain/snow/sleet mix is possible Sunday night into Monday evening. At this time, accumulation appears little to none. Monitor updates.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Monitor. Wind chill temperatures may drop below 10 degrees early next week.
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** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **.
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Friday night Forecast: Some evening clouds. Clearing. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° MO 26° to 32° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely dry
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:51 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 50° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. More numerous over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy with rain or snow showers. A wintry mix possible. More likely over the eastern half of the region vs west. Monitor.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28° West KY 26° to 28° NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. More coverage over our eastern counties vs west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor winter conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:22 PM
Moonset: 4:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cold. Breezy, at times. A chance of rain or snow showers. Wintry mix possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 38° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 35° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor winter weather forecasts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold. A chance of snow showers or snow flurries. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° MO 18° to 24° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:59 PM
Moonset: 4:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° SE MO 36° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:42 PM
Moonset: 7:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° MO 22° to 25° South IL 22° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 23° to 26° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:32 PM
Moonset: 8:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° MO 30° to 34° South IL 30° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:28 PM
Moonset: 9:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 35° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:29 PM
Moonset: 10:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 6th: No severe thunderstorms.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 27th
I am watching a system Sunday night into Monday. A light rain snow mix is possible.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Much colder air is on the way
- A few showers and snow showers possible with the frontal system and area of low pressure.
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** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
The main weather discussion is mainly focused on the Sunday into Monday storm system.
Today and Saturday:
We do have a dry cold front passing through the area today/tonight (Friday). No major concerns. Some clouds.
Another increase in clouds is likely Saturday afternoon and night.
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Sunday into Wednesday:
A powerful winter storm is forecast to develop Sunday into Tuesday. Mainly to our south and east.
This system will move from the southern United States into the Appalachians. It is forecast to rapidly deepen as it move northeast.
This will mean an increase in clouds and moisture for our region Sunday into Monday. Gusty wind, as well. A tightening barometric pressure gradient will guarantee that.
Much colder air will then sweep in behind the system. We may even see the rain end as a wintry mix. Little or no accumulation for most of the area.
I will keep a close eye on it. It would not take much of a shift to bring accumulating wintry precipitation to the region.
One thing is for certain, it is going to feel like winter as we move into the new work week. Highs may only reach 40 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Lows in the 20s.
That is the big weather story. Colder air.
Let me show you the GFS model forecast for high temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Well below normal.
Monday high temperatures (this may be a bit too cold but you get the general idea)
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Tuesday high temperatures
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Departures from average. Monday 12 PM. How many degrees below normal will temperatures be? That is what this chart shows you.
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Departures from average. 6 AM Tuesday. How many degrees below normal will temperatures be? That is what this chart shows you.
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Let me show you the EC and GFS models. They look similar.
Some rain pushes into the region Sunday/Monday and then pulls away Monday and Monday night.
The red L is the area of low pressure. The green and yellow represents rain.
The blue represents snow.
The second image shows the deepening storm system pulling away from the region. Purple and blue represent snow and a wintry mix. Mostly to our east/northeast. Some in our area.
The GFS model
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Quiet weather Tuesday into Wednesday night.
Another system may approach the region Thursday and Friday with an increase in clouds and perhaps some scattered showers.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No short-range precipitation
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
No short-range precipitation
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 27th through December 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 4th through December 10th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 11th through the 24th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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