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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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Thursday night through Thursday night
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Monday/Tuesday.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Monitor. Wind chill temperatures may drop below 10 degrees early next week.
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** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **.
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Wednesday night Forecast: Clearing sky conditions. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:32 PM
Moonset: 2:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy most of the day. Some clearing west to east. Portions of the region may remain in clouds. Stubborn clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. More clouds before midnight vs after.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Rain may mix with snow with no accumulation. The chance of that happening is higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 3:51 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy with rain or snow showers. A wintry mix possible. More likely over the eastern half of the region vs west. Monitor.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 28° MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor winter conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:22 PM
Moonset: 4:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cold. Breezy, at times. A chance of rain or snow showers. Wintry mix possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° SE MO 35° to 42° South IL 35° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 42° West KY 36° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor winter weather forecasts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold. A chance of snow showers or snow flurries. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:59 PM
Moonset: 4:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:42 PM
Moonset: 7:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° MO 22° to 25° South IL 22° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 23° to 26° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:32 PM
Moonset: 8:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:28 PM
Moonset: 9:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly. A slight chance of precipitation.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (monitor)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:29 PM
Moonset: 10:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 6th: No severe thunderstorms.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 26th
I am watching a system Monday/Tuesday. It may bring some snow flurries or snow showers/wintry mix. Colder air, as well.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain is winding down and pushing off to the east.
- Cooler behind the front. Gusty wind.
- Dry Thanksgiving.
- Monitoring the weekend into early next week for a couple of disturbances.
- Colder next week.
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
Our much anticipated cold front is pushing across the region.
The front will be off to our east by this evening (Wednesday evening).
Widespread showers and thunderstorms accompanied the front as it pushed through the region. Some of the rain was briefly heavy.
Strong and gusty wind has been reported over the area, as well. Wind gusts above 35 mph have occurred.
This is mostly because of the tight pressure gradient associated with the front and area of low pressure.
Radar earlier this morning looked like this. You can see the pre-frontal rain band.
Again, this is an old radar image. Most of this has pushed off to the east as of this writing.
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Dry weather will be the rule tonight into Thursday night. A bit cooler, but nothing extreme.
Highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 50s over most of the region. Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the upper 30s.
A few clouds Thursday.
At one point, Friday through Sunday was shaping up cloudy and wet. Models have backed off the extent of clouds and rain.
I had low-end rain chances. I still have some low-end rain and snow probabilities. See the detailed forecast at the top of the page.
No snow accumulation.
One big difference between this week and next week will be temperatures.
Much colder air is going to push into the region over the weekend and especially next week. Perhaps the coldest air of the season, thus far.
A large upper level low pressure system continues to show up in the model guidance Sunday night into Thursday.
This upper-level low meanders over the Ohio Valley. Perhaps even retrograding westward.
Models never handle these systems all that well.
Model guidance has shown everything from rain to heavy snow in our region.
For now, I have kept the mention of a low-end light rain or snow shower chance Sunday into Tuesday.
The GFS shows a few snow flurries in the region Monday.
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Confidence in the forecast early next week is very low. Monitor updates as adjustments are certainly possible.
Either way, it appears that it will be cold.
Lows Sunday night will drop into the 30s. Lows will drop into the 20s Monday and Tuesday night.
Highs on Monday and Tuesday may remain in the 30s and 40s. Chilly air.
Monitor updates.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 27th through December 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 4th through December 10th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 11th through the 24th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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