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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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Friday to Friday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Not at this time.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Tuesday night and Wednesday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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November 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds through the day. A sprinkle is possible as clouds thicken.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers late. Mainly over MO/IL.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° MO 45° to 54° South IL 48° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars late
Moonrise: 12:06 PM
Moonset: 10:13 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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November 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers over the northern half of southeast Missouri and most of southern Illinois. Odds favor northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% north 20% Bootheel IL ~ 60% north 30% south KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 50° to 56° South IL 52° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly northern half of the region)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways (mainly northern half of the region)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars (mainly northern half of the region)
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:43 PM
Moonset: 11:16 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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November 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. A small chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 50° to 56° South IL 50° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A small chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers ending. Turning colder. Clearing overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° MO 30° to 35° South IL 30° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming north northwest at 7 to 14 mph..
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 1:15 PM
Moonset: 6:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Morning clouds. Decreasing clouds west to east. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 36°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:43 PM
Moonset: 12:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 8 to 16 mph becoming west at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 2:08 PM
Moonset: 1:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 2:32 PM
Moonset: 2:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 52° to 56° South IL 52° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° MO 30° to 35° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through November 29th: I am watching next Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 20th
Rain chances ramp up Saturday into Sunday. I am watching the chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night/Wednesday.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain chances will increase over the weekend.
- No major extremes.
- Another chance of rain next week. Perhaps some storms.
Beginning next week. ** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
There were numerous fires Thursday. Gusty wind combined with low humidity levels to help cause brush fires. Several businesses even burned.
Calmer weather today.
I anticipated today to be dry. There is a small chance of a sprinkle as clouds thicken from west to east.
Rain chances begin to increase late tonight from west to east.
The rain chances will be higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois vs Kentucky/Tennessee.
Rain chances ramp up Saturday night and Sunday area-wide.
This should be a widespread 0.40″ to 0.80″ rain event. Some locations will top an inch of rain (esp MO/IL).
The rain chances will end west to east Sunday afternoon and evening.
High pressure will push into the region Sunday night into Monday night. Cooler temperatures.
I am closely watching another storm system Tuesday into Wednesday night.
For now, I lowered rain chances Tuesday. I increased rain chances Tuesday night/Wednesday.
This system may also bring a few thunderstorms. A bit early to know if severe weather will be a concern.
It appears Thursday (Thanksgiving) will be dry and cool.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 20th through November 26th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers November 27th through December 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 1st through the 14th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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