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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Rain chances will VARY Saturday. See detailed forecast further down in today’s update
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Friday to Friday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Saturday/Saturday night.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. A few storms could be severe Saturday evening and night. Mainly over southeast Missouri. Monitor elsewhere.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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November 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny AM. Perhaps some PM clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds from the west. A chance of showers after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars late
Moonrise: 4:26 AM
Moonset: 4:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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November 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers. An isolated thunderstorm. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous (intervals early AM and then another round PM)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy before 3 AM. A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Windy, at times. A few storms could be severe.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° MO 44° to 48° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 35 mph. Wind becoming southwest and west at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous. A band of rain will move west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor severe risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Moonrise: 5:42 AM
Moonset: 4:39 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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November 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Am clouds giving way to clearing. A slight chance of rain. Falling temperatures. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West at 15 to 35 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over Kentucky before 10 AM. Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways (early)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° MO 30° to 35° South IL 30° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: West 7 to 14 mph early becoming west/northwest at 4 to 8 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:58 AM
Moonset: 5:21 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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November 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:13AM
Moonset: 6:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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November 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35° West KY 30° to 35° NW TN 30° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 36°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:25 AM
Moonset: 7:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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November 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:28 AM
Moonset: 8:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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November 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:22 AM
Moonset: 9:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through November 18th: A few storms could be severe Saturday night over mainly southeast Missouri. Elsewhere, monitor updates.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 13th
Some storms could be severe Saturday night. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain chances ramping up. Briefly.
- Windy weekend. Boaters use caution.
- Decent temperatures today and tomorrow. Cooler Sunday and Monday.
A cold front will push into the region over the next 36 hours. This will lead to shower chances. A few thunderstorms.
A warm front will move through the region late tonight. It will move SW to NE. This will be accompanied by a band of showers. Isolated lightning.
Most of that rain will occur between 1 AM and 6 AM across southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee. Between 4 AM and 9 AM across much of southern Illinois and far western Kentucky. A bit later near the Illinois/Indiana and Kentucky/Indiana state line.
Then, there will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day.
Rain chances ramp up Saturday evening and night as a cold front sweeps across the region.
That will be the main band of showers and thunderstorms. See the future-cast radars below.
Some of the storms could be severe. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
It will be windy this weekend. Some gusts above 40 mph will be possible. This is because of a tight pressure gradient.
Rain totals will vary. A bit heavier over Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky and Tennessee.
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Rain chances Sunday will be less than 20%. Some lingering clouds and gusty wind.
Dry Monday and Tuesday. I am watching another system next Wednesday/Thursday. For now, that looks to be a dry cold front. I will keep an eye on it.
The next chance of rain after that would be next weekend. Long way off and plenty of time to monitor that portion of the forecast.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 13th through November 19th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers November 20th through November 26th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers November 27th through December 10th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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