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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday through Friday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Lightning will be possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. A smaller chance Wednesday morning.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
5. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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November 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 PM
Moonset: 11:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few PM clouds possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:36 PM
Moonset: 12:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 72° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° MO 58° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:43 PM
Moonset: 1:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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November 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few PM clouds possible. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° SE MO 75° to 80° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear the first half of the night. Some late night clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° MO 58° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 1:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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November 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a few showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° MO 43° to 48° South IL 44° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Moonrise: 12:52 AM
Moonset: 2:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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November 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: AM clouds. A chance of morning showers. Clearing west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: AM scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:02 AM
Moonset: 2:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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November 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:13 AM
Moonset: 3:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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November 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° MO 38° to 40° South IL 38° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:26 AM
Moonset: 4:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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November 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a late night shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° MO 45° to 50° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 5:42 AM
Moonset: 4:39 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through November 12th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 6th
No major weather concerns.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Dry weather.
- Nice temperatures. No extremes in the short-range.
Well, we have had quite the stretch of amazing weather. This is especially true since it is November!
The only weather story will be a cold front that pushes into the region Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front. This does not appear to be a heavy rain event.
At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.
Here is the most likely solution for rainfall totals. Less than 0.40″ is the current forecast. Most of this falls Tuesday.
It will turn cooler behind the Tuesday cold front. Nothing extreme.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers November 13th through November 19th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers November 20th through December 3rd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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