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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** NOTE: Thursday and Friday are travel days for me. No blog update. The weather will be nice Friday into most of next week **
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Wednesday through Wednesday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Rain totals Wednesday night and Thursday may be enough to cause some problems. The heaviest band of rain will likely be across western Tennessee into western Kentucky. Over two inches if likely in spots.
5. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Monitor. I am monitoring Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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October 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
** NOTE: Thursday and Friday are travel days for me. No blog update. The weather will be nice Friday into most of next week **
Wednesday Forecast: Morning fog. Cloudy. Rain will spread into the region from north to south. Some moderate downpours possible. Rain chances will be higher over the Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. It will spread northward.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ increasing to 60% IL ~ increasing to 60% KY ~ increasing to 80% TN ~ increasing to 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 55° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Becoming more numerous as the day wears on.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. I will monitor the chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy rain likely. Temperatures over the Bootheel into Kentucky/Tennessee will rise overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel Rising to 60° to 54° MO 44° to 50° South IL 44° north to 52° south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) Rising to 56° to 60° West KY Rising to 58° to 64° NW TN Rising to 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Monitor the chance of flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 5:03 PM
Moonset: 4:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Locally heavy rain. A dry slot may move into portions of the area. We will have to monitor that. Rain will end where that occurs. Temperatures will fall. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° early then falling SE MO Falling temperatures 50° to 60° South IL 48° to 62° Falling temperatures Northwest KY (near Indiana border) Falling temperatures 55° to 60° West KY Falling temperatures 62° to 65° NW TN Falling temperatures 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North winds over our northerly counties. South winds over our southern counties. Variable wind direction 10 to 20 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 64° Falling temperatures during the day
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Heavy rain. Small chance of lightning. Monito the flash flood risk where the heaviest rain band occurs.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Remaining rain showers will come to an end from west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Rain ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
Moonrise: 5:27 PM
Moonset: 5:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few patchy clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 35° to 38° NW TN 36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Light north wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:52 PM
Moonset: 6:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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October 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: A few passing clouds. A decent day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Light and variable wind. Wind becoming southeast.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 35° to 38° NW TN 36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 7 to 14.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:19 PM
Moonset: 7:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? AM freeze
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost and freeze possible. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible. Freeze possible. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:49 PM
Moonset: 7:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Frost possible. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 8:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Rain chances over the coming days.
- Nicer weather Friday into early next week (dry spell).
Click graphics to enlarge them.
The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through November 1st: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated October 28th
Locally heavy rain is likely this week. The main time-frame of concern will be Wednesday night into Thursday.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled weather.
- Series of fronts and disturbances.
- Halloween weather is shaping up dry.
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** NOTE: Thursday and Friday are travel days for me. No blog update. The weather will be nice Friday into most of next week **
There is only one weather story to talk about. RAIN! A lot of rain.
The only question left is how much will it rain at your house.
Model guidance is showing a widespread one to three inch rain events with pockets of greater than three inches.
There is still some disagreement on exactly who ends up with the jackpot totals.
The overall thinking is the heaviest totals will be near the Ohio River. There is absolutely some room for adjustments.
Not a single tropical forecast has gone as planned this year. Thus, plan on a lot of rain. Avoid flooded roadways.
The heaviest rain will fall tonight into Thursday. Rain will diminish as we move through Thursday afternoon and evening.
A few showers will arrive as early as this afternoon. The rain will then spread northward across the region.
That means the Missouri Bootheel and areas along the Kentucky/Tennessee border will experience rain before others.
We have a storm system approaching from the southwest. That is the one that brought heavy ice to Texas and Oklahoma.
An ice disaster struck those areas. Some locations received more than an inch of ice. The leaves are still on the trees. Thus, the damage is extensive.
That system will combine with Hurricane Zeta. Zeta will strike Louisiana over the next 12 to 24 hours. It will then spread north and northeast into the Middle Atlantic States.
This system will help increase moisture into our region. Thankfully, the severe weather will stay to our south and east.
Here is the track of Zeta.
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Let’s take a look at how the models are handling the rain totals. They do vary. You can grasp the overall idea from these graphics.
Hrrr model guidance rainfall totals forecast.
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GFS rainfall totals. This is what that model is forecasting.
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NAM 3K rainfall forecast.
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NAM model guidance rainfall totals.
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An areal flood watch covers much of the region.
The WPC/NOAA has issued these two graphics to cover the heavy rain threat.
Excessive rainfall outlook for Wednesday. Locally heavy rain in the green and yellow. Higher chance of excessive rain in the yellow zone.
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Excessive rainfall outlook for Thursday. Locally heavy rain in the green and yellow. Higher chance of excessive rain in the yellow zone.
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Here is the official NWS areal flood watch zone. The blue area. A few counties have been left off. They could be added later.
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WPC rainfall forecast (NOAA).
Here is what the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service put out.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 28th through November 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers November 4th through November 10th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers November 10th through November 23rd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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