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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The live severe weather blog has been activated.
Link https://wtalk.co/8W9US6K5
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible each day through at least Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms could be intense over the coming days. High wind is the primary concern.
We will have daily shower/thunderstorm chances into Thursday. I can’t rule out a few reports of wind damage. Overall, the risk appears lower-end. I will monitor each day in case adjustments are necessary.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Heavy thunderstorms could cause flash flooding today into Wednesday night.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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September 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
The live severe weather blog has been activated.
Link https://wtalk.co/8W9US6K5
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:35 PM
Moonset: 5:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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September 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 80° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:21 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 8:03 PM
Moonset: 6:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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September 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 8:30 PM
Moonset: 7:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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September 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 77° to 80° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 76° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Becoming mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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September 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 80° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 82° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:19 PM
Moonset: 9:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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September 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 80° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 82° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:15 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:46 PM
Moonset: 10:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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September 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 10:14 PM
Moonset: 11:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Cooler temperatures.
- A daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
- Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through September 6th: Thunderstorms through Thursday could produce locally heavy rain, gusty wind, small hail, and lightning. There could be some wind damage from the heavier storms. This will need to be monitored daily.
The live severe weather blog has been activated.
Link https://wtalk.co/8W9US6K5
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated September 1, 2020
The primary concern this week will be on and off shower and thunderstorm chances. There is no shortage of moisture. Very heavy rain will be possible. Training thunderstorms could easily produce one to three inches of rain. A few storms could produce damaging wind. A low-end tornado risk today.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled weather.
- Cooler weather.
- Cooler in the long range.
- Meteorological Fall arrives today.
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The live severe weather blog has been activated.
Link https://wtalk.co/8W9US6K5
Welcome to meteorological fall! Meteorologists consider September through November to be fall. Sometimes the weather follows along. That will be the case this time.
Big weather changes are on the way!
First, we have to deal with several days of potentially heavy rain. There is a LOT of moisture in the atmosphere. Well above normal PWAT values. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.
You can see that rain moving in from the SW on this static radar image from 6 AM.
And Satellite shows a lot of red. Those are cold cloud tops. Cold cloud tops represent thunderstorms.
The little white specks would be lightning. This is a 6:30 AM satellite image. That complex of storms will move into our region later today.
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PWAT values today into tomorrow will be 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal.
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That means thunderstorms can produce one to two inches of rain in less than thirty minutes. If storms train over a particular area then they could easily receive one to three inches of rain (if not more). This could cause some flash flooding.
Flash flooding warnings will be possible today into tomorrow. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
The WPC/NOAA has placed our region in a risk of flash flooding. A level two risk.
And tomorrow
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Some of the thunderstorms could also produce wind damage and even a tornado later today. The tornado risk is non-zero. Meaning, it is a low risk but not a zero risk.
There is some wind shear to work with today. There is instability to work with today.
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Be sure and make sure you are signed into your Beau Dodson Weather app. I will be sending out messages as needed.
The on and off shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into Thursday night. Additional heavy rain is certainly possible during that time.
We don’t need this much rain but it appears we have no choice in the matter. There will be some very wet fields.
Let me show you what one model has for rain chances over the coming two days. This just gives you an idea.
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As always, during the summer, rain totals will vary GREATLY.
Here are four models and their predictions on rain totals. You can see the wide range.
Models don’t do well with handling training thunderstorms.
GFS model through Thursday.
NAM 3K model through 1 PM Thursday
Hrrr model only goes through Wednesday at 1 PM
The NAM model through Thursday
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And the NWS posted this graphic.
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The good news is that major weather changes will arrive Friday into next week. Widespread below normal temperatures will push into the central United States. It is going to feel like autumn.
That means highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Some days could even be cooler if we have clouds and precipitation.
This is a significant cool wave for the United States. An early season shot of cool air. Cold for some. Models are predicting lows in the 30s across the northern plains.
Let me show you the GFS model’s forecast.
This is showing you temperature departures. Above or below normal. Blue is below normal.
This is next Tuesday. Look at all the blue and purple! Wow.
Next Thursday
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Zooming in a bit. This is our regions temperature departures for Saturday morning. Well below normal.
Sunday afternoon’s departures
Monday’s temperature departures. Quite impressive for this time of the year.
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As far as rain chances next week, there will be a chance of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Still several days to monitor that.
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Final September Outlook
Temperatures
Rainfall
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The Preliminary October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers September 1st through September 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers September 8th through 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″
This outlook covers September 15th to the 28th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The Preliminary October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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