.
Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
.
.
.
Monday to Monday
The live severe weather blog has been activated.
Link https://wtalk.co/8W9US6K5
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible each day through at least Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. Some storms may be severe this afternoon. The primary concern will be southeast Missouri. Areas to the E/SE should monitor updates.
We will have daily shower/thunderstorm chances into Thursday. I can’t rule out a few reports of wind damage. Overall, the risk appears lower-end. I will monitor each day in case adjustments are necessary.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Monitor updates moving forward. Slow moving storms could cause flash flooding.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
..
.
August 31, 2020
The live severe weather blog has been activated.
Link https://wtalk.co/8W9US6K5
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Patchy AM fog. Mostly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. The chances are higher over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee. The further north and northeast you travel the lower the chance of rain. Some storms could produce wind damage and heavy rain. A few hail reports.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: West and south at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous over southeast Missouri. Scattered elsewhere.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few severe storms will be possible. Mainly over southeast Missouri. Areas to the southeast should monitor, as well.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:24 PM
.
Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 7:03 PM
Moonset: 4:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
September 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:35 PM
Moonset: 5:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
September 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 80° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:21 PM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 8:03 PM
Moonset: 6:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
.
September 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 82° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
.
Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 8:30 PM
Moonset: 7:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
September 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 77° to 80° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 76° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:18 PM
.
Friday night Forecast: Becoming mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
September 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 80° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 82° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:19 PM
Moonset: 9:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
September 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 80° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 82° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:15 PM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:46 PM
Moonset: 10:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
September 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
.
Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 10:14 PM
Moonset: 11:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
.
What is the UV index?
.
.
- Cooler temperatures.
- A daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
- Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
.
Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
Today through September 6th: Severe weather will be possible this afternoon and evening across southeast Missouri. Everyone else should monitor updates. The threat of severe weather is greatest over Missouri. That does not rule out severe storms moving into Kentucky/Tennessee.
The rest of the week will provide daily chances of thunderstorms through Thursday. Friday into Sunday should be dry. Some storms could produce gusty wind, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.
The live severe weather blog has been activated.
Link https://wtalk.co/8W9US6K5
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
.
The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
..
Weather advice:
Updated August 31, 2020
The primary concern this week will be on and off shower and thunderstorm chances. Locally heavy rain and lightning are the main concern. A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind. Temperatures will be cooler this week.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
.
Weather Discussion
-
- Unsettled weather.
- Cooler weather.
- Cooler in the long range.
- Meteorological Fall arrives September 1st! Hard to believe.
.
The live severe weather blog has been activated.
Link https://wtalk.co/8W9US6K5
Well, the good news is that cooler weather has arrived. The bad news is that we will be dealing with on and off shower/thunderstorm chances.
A stationary front has draped itself across our local area. This is why we had showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.
This front will provide a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
Each 12-hour period will need to be monitored for thunderstorm chances. This will be a tricky and changeable forecast.
Forecasting these weak impulses that travel along stationary fronts can be a meteorological headache. A slightly stronger than forecast pulse would mean widespread showers and thunderstorms vs scattered.
One disturbance will move across Missouri today. It will travel northwest to southeast. It is possible some of those thunderstorms could be severe with damaging wind and hail. Monitor updates.
The risk is higher over Missouri vs the rest of the area. Especially southern Missouri.
A cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This will also provide more lift for showers and thunderstorms.
A stronger disturbance combined with a cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. Into the likely category.
Clouds will also help keep temperatures in check. Thus, it will be cooler than normal.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be high on Wednesday and Wednesday night, as well. Then, I will need to monitor Thursday and Thursday night.
Rainfall totals could be high from today through Thursday. Some locations will pick up one to three inches of rain. I can’t rule out higher totals where thunderstorms train over the same area.
As always, during the summer months, rainfall totals will vary GREATLY. Some will have less than others. Some will have more than others. Typical for the summer months.
Drier air will arrive Friday into the weekend. That should help shut down the daily shower and thunderstorm chances.
A few models hang the front up in our region Friday into Saturday. IF that were to happen then rain chances would continue.
For now, that has been discounted and I have kept the front moving southward. I will keep an eye on it and update if need be.
Final September Outlook
Temperatures
Rainfall
.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
.
This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 31st through September 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
.
This outlook covers September 7th through 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers September 8th through the 21st
.
Precipitation outlook
1
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
.
Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
.
September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
.
October temperature outlook.
October precipitation outlook.
.
November Temperature Outlook
.
November Precipitation Outlook
.
Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.