May 2, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

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Today: Thunderstorms today into tonight. Lightning will be a concern. Some of the storms could produce high winds, hail, and even isolated tornadoes. The severe weather risk will be highly dependent on the atmosphere become unstable as a morning round of showers and storms. Morning storms could produce high winds. Locally heavy rain could briefly cause flash flooding.
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Tomorrow: Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night. Lightning will be the concern tomorrow into tomorrow night. Saturday could have some lightning strikes, as well.

Active/wet pattern will continue into next week and perhaps longer.
Flooding.

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Thursday through Saturday night.

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today into Saturday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Yes. A few storms could produce high wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes Thursday and Thursday evening. The severe weather risk is dependent on the destabilization of the atmosphere after our morning thunderstorms. Morning storms could also produce high winds and small hail.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. There is a low-end flash flood risk. Locally heavy rain/storms could quickly produce an inch of rain. This is especially true where storms train over the same areas.

Sunday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Monday onward. Some of the guidance holds showers and thunderstorms off until Tuesday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates. Thunderstorms are possible Monday onward. Some of the guidance holds showers and thunderstorms off until Tuesday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk. Monitor updates. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible next week. I will be monitoring the potential of heavy rain.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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No major adjustments.

May 2, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe. Some heavy downpours are again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Intervals of scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Some storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:59 AM

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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense. Perhaps a period of numerous showers and storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 8 to 16 mph. Wind becoming variable at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Some storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
Moonrise: 5:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:36 PM

May 3, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Chances increase Friday night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 72° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 80°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars and updates.
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms are likely. Chances increase as we move through the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 58° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:36 PM

May 4, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Some thunderstorms are also possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72° SE MO 66° to 74° South IL 66° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 70% NW TN 80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3 Low to moderate. If clouds persist then lower numbers.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy early. Any remaining showers will end.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 54° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning early in the evening.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check radars before 6 PM.
Sunset: 7:47 PM
Moonrise: 6:06 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 7:38 PM

Sunday: Medium to high confidence. Some morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Warm. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. Low temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. Variable winds. Light winds.

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Monday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. A 20% to 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Monday and Monday night. Monitor these rain probabilities. They will likely need adjusting as confidence in the final forecast increases. Warm. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Southerly wind at 6 to 12 mph.

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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. A 30% to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Tuesday night. Monitor these rain probabilities. They will likely need adjusting as confidence in the final forecast increases. Warm. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures in the lower 60s. South winds 7 to 14 mph and gusty.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

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Agriculture Forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Lightning is possible today into tomorrow. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail on Thursday and Thursday evening. The tornado risk is low but definitely not zero. Monitor updates.

Saturday through Wednesday: Lightning is possible Friday and Saturday and then again on Monday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not anticipated Friday through Sunday. I would encourage you to monitor updates concerning the Monday through Wednesday part of the forecast. Locally intense storms are possible.

Numerous value-added severe weather graphics.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

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Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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More showers and thunderstorms.
Some severe storms are possible Thursday.
Sunday is the pick day of the weekend.
Additional showers and thunderstorms next week.
Active weather pattern.

Current conditions.

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Forecast discussion.
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Today and tomorrow.

First, the May temperature and precipitation outlook has been updated

May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Precipitation

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Forecast discussion.
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Today and tomorrow.

I am closely monitoring Thursday’s weather. The ingredients are coming together for severe thunderstorms. That would include a threat of a tornado. Let’s keep a close eye on the Thursday forecast.

Scattered showers and likely non-severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Friday night, as well.

What could disrupt the severe risk on Thursday?

Morning clouds and widespread showers and thunderstorms would help keep instability lower. If that occurs then the severe weather risk will be lower.

When the sun is out it heats the ground. Heating the ground warms the atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere means higher CAPE values. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

Monitor updates Thursday. I will post updates at the top of this page as showers and thunderstorms push through the region.

Remember, a warning means to seek shelter.

Saturday

Finally, Saturday is starting to appear wetter and wetter. It now appears that a wave of low pressure will move along our stalled front. This will spread widespread rain back into the region Friday night into Saturday afternoon.

Some moderate rain is possible on Saturday.

The atmosphere drys out Saturday night.

Sunday will be dry. Sunday continues to be the pick day of the weekend. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70’s.

We can not shake this wet pattern.

Heavy rain concerns.

I am concerned that this active pattern may linger into next week and the following week.

Significant flooding of rivers is ongoing over parts of Missouri and Illinois. This pattern will produce increasing flooding concerns along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers (and other rivers, as well).

This seems to be the year of the flood.

Here are the latest WPC/NOAA excessive rainfall outlooks. This shows you where the risk of flash flooding/flooding will be the highest.

Thursday’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Green is a level one risk of excessive rainfall (flash flooding). Yellow is a level two risk of flash flooding. Red is a level three risk of flash flooding. There are four levels. Four being the highest.

Friday’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Saturday’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Long Range

Monday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday into Friday. It won’t rain all of the time, of course. There will also be time periods when the brunt of the shower and thunderstorm activity focuses on certain portions of my forecast area.

Those finer details will need to be ironed out.

It does appear that we could have rain chances every day next week. Obviously, farmers in much of the region need a break.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Models are going to struggle with this type of pattern.

Small ripples of energy will rise along the stalled boundary. Each can produce showers and thunderstorms.

Timing them can be tricky, at best. Plan on scattered showers and storms over the next few days. Some storms will be locally heavy.

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Here is the Hrrr model guidance.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Models do not handle this pattern all that well.

Here is the high-resolution WRF model guidance.

Time-stamp upper left.

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.Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

Time-stamp upper left.

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Here is the NAM future-cast radar. NAM is another model. This is the lower resolution version.

Time-stamp upper left.

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.Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

Time-stamp upper left.

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Here is the NAM future-cast radar. NAM is another model. This is the lower resolution version.

Time-stamp upper left.

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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

This is a long animation. I just wanted to show you how active this model is.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 693

Tonight’s guest WeatherBrain is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Office in Memphis, TN. He is a 31-year veteran of the NWS, and worked at offices in west Texas, north Texas, and Phoenix AZ before moving to Memphis. He received his Bachelors Degree in Meteorology from Florida State, and his Masters from the University of Oklahoma. He has focused on severe storms and storm spotter training throughout his career, and has helped develop spotter training materials that were and are used nationwide. Gary Woodall, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s second guest WeatherBrain is a graduating senior from the University of Oklahoma’s School of Meteorology. She is Oklahoma Weather Labs Director of Operations and a Senior Representative to the OU School of Meteorology Student Affairs Committee. Also, she is Deputy Director of the New Student Mentoring Program and a member of the OU Nightly Weather Team. Leah Hill, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: