February 26, 2019: Subscribers update. Colder weather is on the way. Monitoring precipitation chances.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

My regular detailed text forecast can be found below these graphics.

My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

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Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

Today: No, but avoid flooded roadways. Rivers will continue to flood.

Tomorrow: No. Rivers will continue to flood, keep that in mind. Avoid flooded roadways.

* What is a weather alert day? It is a day when flash flooding, severe weather, or wintry precipitation may impact your day.

Dry weather through Wednesday morning.
Light rain possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Freezing rain likely Wednesday night/Thursday morning from Bollinger County, Missouri northeast towards Evansville, Indiana. Along and northwest of that line.
Much colder air is poised to move into the region. A return to winter.
Monitoring rain rain/snow/mix chances Friday/Friday night/Saturday morning. Monitoring snow chances Sunday.

Confidence rating explained.

High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

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Today through Thursday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast today through Thursday? Yes. I am monitoring late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is possible. The main area of concern would be the northern half of SE MO and portions of southern IL.
Is lightning in the forecast today through Thursday? No.
Is severe weather in the forecast today through Thursday? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast today through Thursday? No. General river flooding, however, will continue.

Friday through next Thursday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast this Friday through next Thursday? Possible. There is a chance late Friday night/Saturday morning of some light rain, snow, and mix showers. Light snow is possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Monitor updates. Zero to two inches is being shown by model guidance. Some models show heavier snow. For now, that seems unlikely. I will monitor trends. Monitor updates.
Is lightning in the forecast this Friday through next Thursday? No. I removed the lightning from the Friday forecast.
Is severe weather in the forecast this Friday through next Thursday? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast this Friday through next Thursday? No. General river flooding will continue.

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
.

February 26, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Increasing clouds. Mild. Nice for February.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast and south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: /° to /°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:30 AM

Tuesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of a late night sprinkle over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. For the most part, it will be dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:46 PM
Moonrise: 12:43 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:09 AM

February 27, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A light shower possible during the afternoon. The best chance of light rain will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 52° north to 58° south South IL 52° north to 56° south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph becoming west and northwest. The west and northwest winds will be more likely over the northern parts of the region as a cold front sags southward.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: /° to /°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Low to Moderate
Sunrise: 6:29 AM

Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Light showers developing. Freezing rain likely across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This freezing rain may extend into northwest Kentucky, as well. Icy surfaces are likely to develop. Remember, bridges and elevated surfaces will freeze first.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Freezing rain will develop from Bollinger County, MO east and northeast towards Evansville, Indiana. From there north and west. Icy surfaces likely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 5:47 PM
Moonrise: 1:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
Moonset: 11:51 AM

February 28, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy with light rain showers. Freezing rain is likely Thursday morning before temperatures climb above freezing. The best chance of that happening would be over parts of southeast MO into northwest Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roads and surfaces in the freezing rain zone.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:28 AM

Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of a snow flurry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 23° to 26° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:48 PM
Moonrise: 2:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 12:36 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Friday: Cloudy. A chance of a rain shower during the afternoon. Friday night will also be cloudy with a rain possible. Highs in the 40’s. Lows in the middle 30’s and 40’s.

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of mostly morning rain showers. I will monitor the colder air as it moves into the region Saturday. Perhaps some snow showers. Additional snow chances Saturday night or Sunday. Some accumulation possible if snow does develop Saturday night. Highs in the 30’s to lower 40’s. Lows in the teens and 20’s.

Sunday: Cold. A chance of snow showers. Some accumulation possible if snow does develop. Highs in the 20’s and 30’s. Lows in the teens and 20’s.

The wind speed and direction forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today and tomorrow: No severe weather concerns.

Wednesday through next Tuesday: No severe weather concerns.

Today and tonight: Snow is not anticipated.

likely.

Wednesday through Monday: I am monitoring a system that will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday and another one Saturday night and Sunday. I can’t rule out light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain or snow showers across portions of the area. Keep monitoring updates.

The chance of light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain late Wednesday night/Thursday morning will mainly be from Bollinger County, Missouri northeast towards Evansville, Indiana. From there north and northwest. South of that line the chance of wintry precipitation decreases.

The Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night event could be area-wide. Monitor updates. Some models show heavier snow. For now, that seems unlikely. I will monitor trends.

The EC model brings snow chances into the region earlier than the GFS. GFS is more Sunday PM vs AM.

Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook

The highest probability on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

Keep in mind, this includes sleet and freezing rain.

There is a chance of freezing rain Wednesday night/Thursday morning and then a chance of snow Saturday night/Sunday.

I will keep an eye on Thursday night/Friday morning, as well. Friday night, as well.

Alexander, Pulaski, and Massac Counties may not have ice. This remains a question.

Western Kentucky

Northwest KY

There remain questions about whether freezing rain will occur south of Bollinger and Cape Girardeau Counties.

Monitor updates.

The Missouri Bootheel

Northwest Tennessee

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar. This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Dry again today, tonight, and Wednesday.
Rain and freezing rain Wednesday night and Thursday. Precipitation chances Friday night & Saturday and again Saturday night into Sunday night.
Much colder air is poised to move into the region. It is about to feel like winter.
Snow chances Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I removed the mention of thunderstorms on Friday. That system does not appear strong enough to produce storms. I will keep monitoring it.

I made small adjustments to the temperatures. Nothing dramatic.

I increased freezing rain chances for portions of the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

Does the forecast require action?

Yes. Avoid flooded roadways.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

Monitor forecasts during the Wednesday night and Thursday morning time frame. Some freezing drizzle and some light freezing rain possible over the northern half of my forecast area.

Monitor the Saturday night/Sunday forecast. Some light snow is possible. Some models show heavier snow. For now, that seems unlikely. I will monitor trends.

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Forecast discussion.

We have some changeable weather ahead of us.

We will have a mild day ahead of us and that will continue into Wednesday! That is good news. Highs will be in the 50’s and 60’s. It will feel like spring. It won’t last, of course. It is still winter, after all.

Timeline of concerns:

Wednesday night/Thursday morning:
Colder air begins to arrive.

Also, along and north of a line from Bollinger County, Missouri, east and northeast towards Evansville, Indiana, there will be a chance of freezing rain and sleet. South of that line there will be some rain showers.

Thursday night/Friday morning:
A low end chance of light snow or a light wintry mix.

Friday night/Saturday:
Rain showers. Rain totals vary in the guidance but are generally in the 0.15″ to 0.30″ range. GFS model shows up to 0.50″ across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. For now, that is an outlier.

Falling temperatures Saturday. A small chance of snow flurries Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night:
A stronger system could bring accumulating snow to the area. At this time, the guidance indicates 0″ to 3″. Confidence, at this point, is low. Monitor updates. I will send out additional AWARE emails if necessary.

The EC model guidance paints snow in our area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The GFS model guidance paints snow in our area Sunday afternoon and night. There are timing differences in the different model packages.

Saturday through at least the middle of next week:
Cold air. Low temperatures at night will be in the middle teens to lower twenties. Even colder temperatures are possible if we have snow on the ground.

You can see some of that colder air on this short-range temperature animation. The timestamp is located in the upper left.

Look to the northwest as the first wave of colder air arrives.

We take a longer look at temperatures and now you can see the bitterly cold air. THis is a blast of winter chill.

River Flooding To Continue

River flooding is going to continue through the week. I know many of you are having flooding issues.

Speaking of flooding, here are some links to help you track the crest numbers.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Model Future-cast Radars

This first model loop is the NAM.

I wanted to show you the light rain potential Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

Those pink colors are a light mix of sleet and freezing rain. I will keep an eye on that.

Now, let’s look at the GFS model guidance.

This is a longer animation that captures three events. The Wednesday night event, the Friday night/Saturday event, and then the Saturday night/Sunday event (snow?).

Green is rain. Pink is a mix. Blue is snow.

How much snow? Well, if it snows then there could be a light dusting to an inch or two. Some models show heavier snow. For now, that seems unlikely. I will monitor trends.

Confidence in snow accumulation remains low. Monitor updates.

The GFS model. Snow accumulation totals. The GFS is showing some light accumulation.

The GFS snow event is Sunday PM. The EC model is Saturday PM into Sunday AM.

The EC model. The EC model has been the most bullish

Current conditions.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

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The Ohio Valley video

Today’s video is from yesterday.

No changes in the forecast.

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Long-range video.

The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours)

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA 6 to 10 & 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE: See our own more detailed in-house long-range forecast graphics below these. They may not always agree **

The cool colors indicate below normal temperatures. The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

The warm colors represent the probability of above normal temperatures.

Days six through ten temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

Days six through ten precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

Days eight through fourteen temperature outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

NAT_TemperatureOutlook_8-14Day.png (1920Ã1080)

Days eight through fourteen precipitation outlook

Confidence % that it will be above or below normal?

The darker colors represent high confidence in above normal precipitation.

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers February 26th through March 3rd

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 33 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.75″ to 1.00″

This outlook covers March 5th through March 11th

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″

This outlook covers March 8th through March 21st

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

March temperature and precipitation outlook

April temperature and precipitation outlook

May temperature and precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

Temperature outlook

Precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

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WeatherBrains Episode 683

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Professor in the Department of Meteorology & Atmospheric Science At Penn State University. She is also the Director at Penn State’s Institute for CyberScience. Her research areas are on hurricanes, climate change, and using advanced computer models and statistics. She is the current President of the AMS. Dr. Jenni Evans, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: