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Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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Looking for some tasty holiday treats? Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need. Located in Benton, Kentucky. They even deliver!
**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL **** $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box! 18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box! Valentine’s Day enclosure card! Free delivery in Marshall County! Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield! Payment is required at time of order. To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call. Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks. 270-205-2552 tracyd@dcelectricinc.com
I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years. I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious. Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order. Birthdays, holidays, or just because! Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here
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I have launched a new weather texting service! Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service. Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones. You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.
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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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I have updated the winter storm probability maps
You can view those here –> www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
January 13, 2017
Friday Night: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Scattered showers likely. Drizzle likely. Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois may not see much of a rise in temperatures. Freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and rain will be possible across areas from Wayne County, MO towards Cape G and then perhaps into the Anna area. Then northeast from there. Temps near steady.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Icy roads possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 28 to 32 near Mt Vernon, Illinois to 34 to 38 near the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
Wind Chill: 20 to 30
Winds: East and northeast winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% (lower over the Bootheel) IL ~ 60% (higher over northern counties) KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread (north)
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing rain is possible over portions of SE MO and southern IL. Check temperatures before you head out. Temps may not move much.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset will be at 5:00 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:51 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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January 14, 2017
Saturday: Patchy fog. Cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps some remaining freezing rain towards the Missouri Ozarks and Mt Vernon, IL area. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps some wintry mix north.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 30’s near Mt Vernon to 42-46 along the Kentucky and Tennessee Border/Bootheel.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely across most of the area. Again, monitor our far northern counties (Mt Vernon/Farmington area)
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:01 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 7:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:35 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Saturday Night: Cloudy. Fog possible. Showers possible. Perhaps not as widespread as during the day.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Monitor for ice over our far northern counties. Monitor lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures in the lower 30’s near Mt Vernon, IL to the middle to upper 30’s in the Bootheel and the Kentucky/Tennessee State line area.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor the Farmington, MO to Mt Vernon, IL zone.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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January 15, 2017
Sunday: Cloudy. Patchy showers possible. Less coverage than previous days. A bit warmer, but still cool.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s near Mt Vernon, IL to the middle and upper 40’s over the rest of the area.
Wind Chill:
Winds: East at 4 to 8 mph. Gusts to 10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:02 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 8:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Fog possible. Small chance for a shower.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Fog could reduce visibility.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 46 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay.
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January 16, 2017
Monday: Cloudy. Mild. A chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing through the day and evening.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures 56 to 64. Well above normal.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Depending on the timing of the cold front we could have widespread showers and some thunderstorms.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B esp late morning into evening. Will need to watch the timing of the front.
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:03 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:50 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Monday Night: Cloudy. Mild. Breezy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 52 to 62. Mild for January.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread. Monitor timing of the front.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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January 17, 2017
Tuesday: Cloudy. Breezy. Some question as to when the cold front moves through the region. If the front is still to our west then there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lower confidence on Tuesday.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. Low confidence.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 55 to 62 and then perhaps falling late in the day.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west at 10-20 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B, but monitor updated forecasts. This might change.
Sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:04 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 10:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Some showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 42 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:
Winds: West and northwest at 8-16 during the evening and then 4-8 after 10 pm
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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January 18, 2017
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cooler.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:05 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 2
Moonrise will be at 11:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:54 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 36 to 44 degrees
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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January 19, 2017
Thursday: Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable winds 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:06 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 2
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 11:25 a.m. Last Quarter
Thursday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 40 to 45
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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January 20, 2017
Friday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 7:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:07 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 a.m. Waning Crescent
Friday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 46 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Freezing rain for portions of the region
- Warming trend for the weekend
- More rain
- Winter?
Forecast Analysis
Friday night and Saturday
Confidence: High
Freezing rain will continue across portions of our region into at least part of Friday night. This will mainly be to the north and west of Perry County, Missouri into the Jefferson County, Illinois area. Monitor temperatures. The freezing line may fluctuate a bit.
As we move through the night, temperatures will slowly rise. By late tonight or Saturday morning, temperatures should rise above freezing in all of my forecast counties. It will be close over our northern counties. Thus, monitor temperatures.
Rain showers are possible tonight across the area.
Future-cast radar from the high-resolution NAM guidance. This is what radar might look like tonight into Saturday
12 AM Saturday
Green represents rain. Pink and purple are freezing rain and sleet.
6 AM Saturday
9 AM Saturday
12 PM Saturday
3 PM Saturday
6 PM Saturday
NAM rainfall totals through early Sunday morning.
Notice the heavier band across portions of our region.
Sunday
Confidence: Medium
A bit of a mixed bag for the region on Sunday and Sunday night. Our northern counties should have rain showers. The southern half of the area will have smaller chances for precipitation. Guidance is a bit mixed on this subject.
I think the best rain chances will be along and north of a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to northern Cape Girardeau County and then north of Carbondale into the Carmi, Illinois region. South of there lesser chances.
Here is what the NAM is showing for Sunday
7 AM Sunday
Notice some freezing rain close to our northern counties. I will need to monitor temperatures in that area.
12 PM Sunday
Scattered drizzle or showers.
Spotty showers possible Sunday night, as well.
Monday and Tuesday
Confidence: High
A stronger system approaches our region on Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible. The severe weather risk will need to be monitored. Some surface CAPE is possible. Surface CAPE would help generate/increase the thunderstorm potential. As is typical for the winter months, the wind fields aloft will be strong. Monitor updates.
It appears the best rain chances might arrive on Monday afternoon and night. EC guidance is a little slower than the GFS.
Locally heavy rain is a possibility.
What are dew points?
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/190/
Dew points on Monday and Tuesday will pop into teh 50’s and perhaps lower 60’s. Lot of moisture for January. A dew point of 58 and above is a red flag for storms. I will be monitoring this part of the forecast.
PWAT values will also be high. Well above average for January. Par for the course.
What are PWAT values?
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/294/
0.50 inches or less = very low moisture content
0.50 to 1.25 inches = low moisture content
1.25 to 1.75 inches = moderate moisture content
1.75 to 2.00 inches = high moisture content
2.00 inches or above = very high moisture content
Temperatures will be well above normal on Monday and Tuesday. Warm air moving northward ahead of the area of low pressure.
Check out the temperatures Monday night. Seriously? 50’s and perhaps 60’s? Wow.
Gusty winds on Monday and Tuesday, as well. Gusts above 30 mph possible (we are used to the wind by now)
Here is the GFS model guidance. You can see the rain in green.
6 PM Monday evening. Six-hour rainfall totals. That would be from 12 pm ~ 6 pm on Monday
12 AM Tuesday
Rainfall totals from 6 pm Monday through 12 am Tuesday
Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated at least twice each week.
To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.
Find me on Twitter
How much rain is expected over the coming days?
These totals are from 6 am Friday through 6 am Saturday
Click to enlarge these images from weatherbell.com
These totals are from 6 am Saturday through 6 am Sunday
These totals are from 6 am Sunday through 6 am Monday
These totals are from 6 am Monday through 6 am Tuesday
These totals are from 6 am Tuesday through 6 am Wednesday
And, if you add them all up
Click to enlarge
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Saturday morning low temperatures
Saturday afternoon high temperatures
Sunday morning low temperatures
Sunday afternoon high temperatures
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday through Sunday: Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
Monitor into Tuesday: New system approaches. Monitor updates. Storms are possible.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
No major changes
There could still be some ice over our northern and northwest counties over the next 12 to 24 hours. Mainly Friday night. Everyone should warm above freezing by Saturday.
We will need to monitor temps on Saturday night in the Mt Vernon, IL area.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.
I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes the following:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple…
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
