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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
January 5, 2017
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. A chance for a few evening snow flurries and snow showers. Another dusting possible. Then, after 3 am perhaps some snow showers in the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Bitterly cold with low wind chill values. Can’t rule out some light accumulation from snow showers and then the snow over the Missouri Bootheel and west Tennessee late tonight.
What impact is expected? Wind chill values of -5 above to 12 above. Frost bite weather. Slick spots on area roads.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 8 to 14 degrees where snow blankets the ground, otherwise 14 to 18 degree range.
Wind Chill: -5 to 12 degrees
Winds: North at 6~12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% (Bootheel 40%) IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50% (% are mostly early in the night)
Coverage of precipitation: Evening flurries and snow showers. I am monitoring the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee late tonight for additional snow showers.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Some snow flurries or snow showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Snow showers and bitterly cold air. Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:52 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:44 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– First quarter
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January 6, 2017
Friday: Mostly cloudy and bitterly cold. A chance for snow showers over the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Some snow showers possible elsewhere, as well, but coverage won’t be as great as yesterday. Cold.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates. Bitterly cold air. Frost bite. Snow showers. Icy roads.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 18 to 24 degree range
Wind Chill: 5 to 15 degrees. Pockets of colder wind chills.
Winds: North at 6-12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered over our southern counties. Elsewhere, a few bands of snow possible. Dusting to one inch in spots.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? It will be cold and there will be some icy roads.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:53 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 12:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night: Snow showers likely. A dusting or so possible. Icy roads possible. Bitterly cold temperatures. Low wind chill temperatures.
What impact is expected? Frost bite. Low wind chills. It will not be pleasant outdoors. Some slick roads still possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 4 to 12 degrees (colder if you have snow on the ground)
Wind Chill: -8 to 8 above
Winds: North at 4-8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Snow showers scattered to widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow showers likely. Some light accumulation possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? It will be cold and there will be some icy roads.
January 7, 2017
Saturday: Partly sunny. Cold.
What impact is expected? Some icy roads still possible. Frost bite. Bitterly cold air during the morning, especially.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range
Wind Chill: -5 to 10 above during the morning hours. Teens in the afternoon.
Winds: North at 6-12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:54 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:00 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:38 Waxing Gibbous
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 12 to 16 degrees (coldest where snow blankets the ground)
Wind Chill: 5 to 12 degrees
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming more easterly after 3 am
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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January 8, 2017
Sunday: Sunny and cold.
What impact is expected? Morning temperatures and wind chills will be bitterly cold.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 28 to 34 degree range
Wind Chill: 8 to 14 degrees early in the morning.
Winds: East winds becoming east/southeast and possibly south at 6-12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:55 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 1:45 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:46 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night: Clear and cold. Windy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 14 to 18 degrees
Wind Chill: 10 to 18 degrees
Winds: Variable winds becoming gusty at 7-14 mph with gusts to 22 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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January 9, 2017
Monday: Mostly sunny. Perhaps some high clouds late in the day.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 34 to 38 degree range I will monitor temperature trends. Some guidance shows lower 40’s for portions of the region.
Wind Chill: 10-20 degrees early in the morning.
Winds: Becoming south and southeast at 10-20 mph with higher gusts likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:56 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 2:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:54 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Monday Night: Some clouds. A late night shower possible. Temperatures may rise overnight. Becoming windy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Patchy fog, perhaps.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures early in the night (30’s). Temperatures may rise into the 40’s by sunrise
Wind Chill:
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph and gusty
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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January 10, 2017
Tuesday: Cloudy. A chance for showers. A thunderstorm possible. Windy. Warmer.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Windy.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds: South at 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor. Rain is possible.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:57 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 3:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:01 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible. A thunderstorm possible. Breezy.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Gusty winds. Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 48-54 degrees
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest to west at 10-25 mph and gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Cold weather
- Southern snow system
- Warmer next week then colder? Roller-coaster.
Forecast analysis
Slick roads greeted many of you this morning.
Here is a photograph sent in from Lynnel Hazelwood Trigg from Henderson, KY
Plenthy of other photographs in the winter storm Facebook thread. Thank you for the photos and reports.
Thursday night through Friday night
Confidence: Medium
The main story over the coming days will be the bitterly cold air. Overnight lows in the single digits and teens. High temperatures mostly in the 20’s. It will certainly feel like winter. Wind chills even colder.
I continue to monitor a southern snow storm for late Thursday night into Saturday. At this time, it appears most of that system will stay to our south.
I did add snow to the forecast for the Bootheel and western Tennessee. Scattered snow showers possible, elsewhere. Another dusting to 1″ for some locations.
A significant warming trend arrives next week. Roller-coaster, as always.
Let me show you some wind chill maps for the coming days.
This first map is for Friday at 9 am. Double brrr on the wind chills. Bundle those kids up!
6 AM Saturday morning wind chills
6 AM Sunday wind chill map
Here is the southern snow system. This is the NAM future-cast radar
I am going to carefully monitor the northern extent of the system. NAM guidance wants to pop it pretty far north.
Future-cast radar
Regular lower resolution NAM shows some snow into our region. The higher resolution is further south.
Here is the same model, but a higher resolution version of it. High resolution, in theory, should have higher verification rate. Meaning, it should be right more than the lower resolution guidance.
I will mention some snow showers for the Bootheel and western Tennessee. Lower than normal confidence on that part of the forecast.
Looking into next week.
Buckle up, we are going for a ride?
Perhaps!
Windy conditions Monday into Tuesday night. Strong and gusty winds likely Monday night into Tuesday night. Gusts above 30 mph likely.
A rain system moves into the region late Monday night or Tuesday. Will need to monitor the onset of precipitation to make sure the cold air is gone.
Temperatures move into the above normal category as we end up on the south and east side of the area of low pressure.
Here is the 12 pm Tuesday weather map. Low over Iowa. Showers and storms over our area. Gusty winds.
Highs on Tuesday will reach into the 50’s.
Here is the 12 am Wednesday map. Deep low well to our north. Gusty winds in our region. Warmer with storms.
Notice the tight isobars? Equal lines of pressure. The black lines circling around the area of low pressure. Those are isobars. When they are tightly packed together it is windy.
The image below would be a blizzard for parts of Wisconsin. Heavy snow. This model shows rain ending as snow in our local area. Several days to monitor that part of the forecast.
Temperature anomalies for Tuesday/Wednesday. WELL above normal. Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 42-44 degrees.
Here are the actual air temperatures for Tuesday
And anomalies (how much above normal). Back into the pink! WELL above normal.
Watch what happens behind that system. The mother lode of cold air pours into the central U.S.
Long way off, but worth monitoring. Some guidance keeps us warm. Some cold. This is the GEM guidance and it is certainly cold.
Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated at least twice each week.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com page.
Find me on Twitter
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Friday morning low temperatures.
Friday afternoon high temperatures
Saturday morning low temperatures.
Saturday afternoon high temperatures
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
No major changes to the forecast.
Bitterly cold nights ahead of us. Day’s will also be cold. Frost bite is always a concern is this type of weather..
Monitoring the southern snow system. This should remain south of most of the area. I will monitor the Missouri Bootheel and western Tenenssee.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.
I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes the following:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple…
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
