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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide everyone the data and forecasts. Your support is important. Thank you.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook was updated on Thursday, December 15th (with a video at the top)
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC. We are planning on adding a new charity in January. Stay tuned for that announcement!
Contest:
Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
Here is the link for the contest. Click here
You may enter once every 24 hours! For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
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New winter weather outlook has been posted on the Weather Talk site. It is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab (upper left side). You will find the link and password there. Any issues email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Link to the outlook: WeatherTalk.
Sign up for the text messages and winter outlooks at www.beaudodsonweather.com
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December 15, 2016
Thursday Night: Bitterly cold. Increasing clouds overnight.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14 to 18 degree range.
Wind Chill: 8-14 degrees
Winds: North early then becoming variable at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 6:53 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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December 16, 2016
Friday: Clouds thickening and lowering through the day. A chance for some light showers during the afternoon. Areas along and north of a line from near Farmington, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois towards Carmi, Illinois may have a wintry mix if the precipitation moves in fast enough. Missouri Ozarks, as well. Small risk of wintry mix elsewhere. Monitor updates, as always. If precipitation were to arrive faster then the forecast would need some adjusting. It will be a race against the freezing line moving north and light precipitation moving in from the southwest.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Possibly some patchy freezing precipitation over our northern counties.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 36-44 degree range. Temperatures will be the coldest over our northern counties. Warmer south and west. A warm front will pass through the area on Friday into Friday evening. Temperatures will warm as the front passes.
Wind Chill: 25-30 degrees
Winds: East and southeast winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Mostly during the afternoon hours.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Precipitation may begin as a wintry mix over portions of the area before changing to rain.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars during the afternoon hours.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 7:57 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:16 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Cloudy. Freezing rain possible over our northern counties. That would include areas like Farmington, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois towards Carmi, Illinois. They may not warm above freezing until after 8 pm. Some questions remain on this part of the forecast. Elsewhere, scattered rain showers, drizzle, and light rain. Small risk for lightning. Any mix will quickly change to all rain. Warmer air arrives overnight. Monitor updates in case the storm system tracks further south.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30’s north and 38 to 44 degree range elsewhere. Temperatures may rise overnight across portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky/Tennessee. Some question now about how much. Colder air may win out over portions of our region.
Wind Chill: 28-38 degrees
Winds: Becoming south at 7-14 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Example
Here are the temperatures for 12 pm on Saturday. No warm up for some counties.
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December 17, 2016
Saturday: Cloudy. A chance for rain showers. A slight chance for a gusty thunderstorm. Breezy. Temperatures may vary considerably across our region (see graphics below). Rainfall totals of 0.05″ to 0.20″ parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Then 0.15″ to 0.40″ far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways. Small risk for lightning. Gusty winds near storms (if they develop).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 34-40 degree range from Farmington, MO to Carmi, IL. Temperatures in the 48-56 degree range over far southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. It appears much of the area may acturally remain quite cold on Saturday. Earlier it appeared we would all warm up.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 30 mph possible. Some storms could produce gusty winds, as well.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Flash freeze. Rain redeveloping. Rapidly falling temperatures. Rain changing to freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Some light accumulation possible. Remember, it only takes a small amount of freezing rain to cause icy road conditions. This event is likely not about amounts. This event is about rapidly falling temperatures with some precipitation continuing. Icy roads possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways may become icy. Hazardous driving conditions possible. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14 to 22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 4 to 16 degrees.
Winds: West and northwest at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Greater coverage possible over far southern Illinois/Kentucky/Tennessee
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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December 18, 2016
Sunday: Bitterly cold. Morning clouds. Becoming sunny. Some snow showers possible.
What impact is expected? Icy roads are a possibility. Low wind chills values of -5 to 15 above. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: -5 to 15 above
Winds: North at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? Precipitation should have ended by Sunday morning. MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Precipitation will have come to an end by Sunday morning. Small chance for remaining snow showers.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow showers are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:33 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 10:03 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Clear. Bitterly cold. Coldest air of the season, thus far.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Low wind-chill values. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 4-12 degree range
Wind Chill: -10 to 10 above
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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December 19, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. Perhaps some increase in high clouds through the day. Cold.
What impact is expected? Bitterly cold temperatures before 12 pm. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 22-26 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-20 degrees
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Cold temperatures and low wind chill values.
Sunrise will be at 7:03 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 11:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:19 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Monday Night: Mostly clear. Cold.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14-20 degree range
Wind Chill: 10-15 degree range
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Not at this time.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
CHRISTMAS GIVEAWAY!!! FORTY WINNERS.
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Warming trend on Friday night into Saturday afternoon
- Rain event Friday night into Saturday
- Flash freeze with icy roads Saturday night
- Coldest of the season, thus far, arrives Sunday night/Monday morning.
- BIG Christmas giveaway contest continues. I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day. See details below. There will be FORTY winners!
Thursday night and Friday:
The detailed winter weather outlook has been updated
To view the winter weather outlook ~ Click Here
The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.
This is what it will look like
Our long awaited winter weather event is finally within sight.
A storm system will develop over Oklahoma and Kansas on Friday. An area of low pressure will push into Missouri and towards St Louis on Friday night and Saturday.
Here is that low on the GFS surface chart. The NAM does not handle the low this way. The NAM weakens the system and scoots the low across southern Missouri.
Anyway, here is the GFS (which seems to make more sense based on upper level maps)
On this map the blue is snow, orange is sleet, pink and purple is freezing rain. Green is rain.
Notice the low near St Louis, Missouri? That places us on the warm side of the system.
The NAM, on the other hand, shows a weaker system. The low is not quite as wound up on the NAM. This will need to be monitored.
This places us on the warm side of the low.
Light rain will develop as early as Friday afternoon. Some light freezing rain possible over our northern counties. Let’s say from near Farmington, Missouri towards Carmi, Illinois. It won’t last long.
Temperatures will rise into the 50’s on Friday night and possibly into the 60’s on Saturday.
Check out the sharp contrast in Temperatures on Saturday late morning/afternoon.
Teens in northwest Missouri and near 70 in the Missouri Bootheel. Impressive gradient.
Dew points will also be on the rise.
Dew point is a great way to measure moisture at the surface.
Here are the dew points for 6 am on Friday
Dry air!
Here are the dew points for 12 pm on Saturday. Wow, what a return of moisture ahead of the system.
Typically dew points of 58 degrees and above are concerning during the winter months. Normally we have severe thunderstorms when this happens. Let’s keep an eye on Saturday. The severe risk appears low, but perhaps not zero.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas to our south for severe storms on Saturday. Again, let’s keep an eye on it. Some gusty winds possible in our area.
Light rain will become widespread on Friday night. This, as strong southerly winds push into our region.
A few thunderstorms are possible on Saturday. Although organized severe weather is not likely, some of the storms could produce high winds. This will need to be monitored. It is actually unusual not to have severe weather with this type of weather system.
Here is our severe weather outlook for Saturday
Flash freeze Saturday night:
Check these two maps out.
How many degrees above normal will temperatures be on Saturday?
How many degrees below normal will temperatures be on Sunday night?
Amazing.
Flash Freeze
Temperatures will drop like a rock on Saturday evening into Sunday morning. By Sunday morning temperatures will have fallen into the teens and lower 20’s.
This map shows a 40-degree difference in temperatures across our region Saturday evening.
Yes, FORTY degrees. Amazing.
Moisture remaining on roadways should freeze. This, along with additional precipitation behind the cold front, will cause roads to become slick and hazardous.
I have increased the probabilities for winter weather on Saturday night/Sunday morning.
There remain some question concerning the eventual outcome of Saturday night and Sunday morning
- How much new precipitation falls behind the front?
- How much water remains on the roadways as gusty winds and falling temperatures push into the area
- Type of precipitation. I suspect most of the precipitation, Saturday night and Sunday morning, will fall as freezing rain and sleet. Some snow will be possible at the tail end of the system.
Prepare for some icy roads on Saturday night and Sunday.
Sunday night and Monday:
The coldest air of the season arrives on Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will fall into the single digits and lower teens. Bitterly cold. Winds will push wind chill values below zero. Not the best forecast over the coming days.
Monday morning temperature map
Temperatures on Monday morning will vary greatly. If some areas do pick up a little bit of snow then temperatures will be several degrees colder in those locations.
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Monday morning wind chill map. Dangerously cold for kids walking to school or standing at the bus stop.
Again, this
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
This image is the official NOAA/WPC/NWS rainfall forecast graphic.
Click images to enlarge
These are NWS forecast totals.
Friday through 6 pm on Sunday:
Heaviest totals are to our south and east.
Here is the north view
These are the totals for Friday until 6 pm on Saturday
Notice portions of the region pick up less than 0.20″ of precipitation. Light event, for many.
Here is the forecast from 6 pm Saturday through 6 pm Sunday.
Not much. This would likely be frozen.
Southern view from Friday through Sunday. Heavy precipitation is possible over our east and southeast counties.
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Here is the 6 pm Saturday through 6 pm Sunday view. Some of this would be frozen.
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Temperature Outlook
Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon high temperatures
Look at that warm tongue of air ahead of the cold front!
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.Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thursday night through next Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday night into Saturday: A few strong thunderstorms are possible with high winds. Monitor updates.
Saturday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No major changes. I continue to monitor the potential winter weather event on Saturday night.
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Cold temperatures on Thursday night and Friday morning. Cold temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday night.
Icy road conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain possible. Flash freeze likely. A flash freeze is when water remaining on roadways freezes as cold air rapidly pushes into an area.
Bitterly cold air on Sunday night/Monday morning. Single digits possible. Lower teens likely. Wind chills will be even colder.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
