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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide everyone the data and forecasts. Your support is important. Thank you.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook will be updated on Monday, December 12th
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC. We are planning on adding a new charity in January. Stay tuned for that announcement!
Contest:
Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
Here is the link for the contest. Click here
You may enter once every 24 hours! For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
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New long range winter weather outlook with be possible on Monday
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
December 12, 2016
New winter weather outlook has been posted on the Weather Talk site. It is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab (upper left side). You will find the link and password there. Any issues email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Link to the outlook: WeatherTalk
Monday Night: Some clouds. Colder. A 30%~50% for a rain or snow/freezing rain/sleet mix. Temperatures are marginal for snow/freezing rain. Perhaps a better chance as you move towards Farmington, Missouri to Carmi, Illinois. Along that line northward.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Small chance for our northern counties to dip below freezing. If temperatures dip below freezing then there could be some icy patches. Overall, confidence is fairly low on frozen precipitation causing issues locally.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: 26-34 degrees
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? A rain/freezing rain/snow/sleet mix possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be chilly and perhaps some light showers or showers developing.
Sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:06 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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December 13, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light rain or snow/freezing rain/sleet possible. Colder. Below normal temperatures once again.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates in case light freezing rain.snow develops.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: 34-36 degrees
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Patchy or scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Possibly some light precipitation. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:16 a.m. Full Moon
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy and colder. Low wind chills on Wednesday morning.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills late Tuesday night/Wednesday.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 18-24 degree range.
Wind Chill: 14 to 18 degrees
Winds: North and northeast at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 14, 2016
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. I can’t rule out snow showers as the colder air arrives. Breezy. Cold. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills. Wind chills 12-20 degrees.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12 to 20 degrees
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps spotty snow showers.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Perhaps some snow showers as a front moves through the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 5:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Clear and cold. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Cold wind chills. Bundle up weather!
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14-18 degree range.
Wind Chill: 7-14 degrees
Winds: North at 6-12 mph diminishing to 0-5 mph late
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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December 15, 2016
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Cold.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 25-30 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12-20 degrees
Winds: North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 6:53 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Some increase of clouds possible. Cold.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12-16 degrees
Winds: North early and becoming variable at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 16, 2016
Friday: Cloudy. A chance for some light showers. Showers could be a mix of rain/sleet/snow/freezing rain over the Missouri Ozarks. I will monitor the rest of the area. I will be monitoring precipitation chances. Breezy. I will be monitoring a new storm system developing to our west.
What impact is expected? I will be monitoring precipitation chances. Lower than normal confidence. Monitor updates in case the storm track shifts.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: 25-30 degrees
Winds: East and southeast winds at 7-14 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Mostly during the afternoon hours.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 7:57 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:16 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Cloudy. A chance for rain or snow. Any mix will quickly change to all rain. Warmer air arrives overnight. Monitor updates in case the storm system tracks further south. Temperatures rising overnight.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill: 26-32 degrees
Winds: Becoming south at 10-20mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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December 17, 2016
Saturday: Cloudy. A chance for rain. Warmer. Well above normal temperatures. Breezy.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-66 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Cloudy. Rain likely. Rain may end as light snow or wintry mix. Turning colder with falling temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Monitor updates concerning the precipitation ending as a wintry mix.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West and northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Perhaps precipitation will end as light snow/flurries.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain can’t be ruled out
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December 18, 2016
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. A chance for precipitation.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates concerning possible precipitation.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 26 to 32 degree range.
Wind Chill: 20-30
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 7:33 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 10:03 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 15-20 degree range
Wind Chill: 10-15 degree range
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Most likely no.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Weak system Monday night/Tuesday
- Back into the teens by Thursday and Friday morning
- Weekend storm system
- BIG Christmas give-away contest continues. I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day. See details below. There will be FORTY winners!
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
Weather synopsis:
Key items to remember:
A. Some light precipitation possible Monday night and Tuesday.
B. Larger storm system late in the week. What type of precipitation? Rumors abound!
C. Colder air by Sunday/Monday
Monday night and Tuesday:
A weak system will spread clouds back into the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a considerable amount of dry air at the surface. Initially, precipitation falling from the clouds will evaporate. This is called virga. If the precipitation overcomes the dry layer then some light rain or freezing rain mix might develop late tonight into Tuesday.
Confidence on frozen precipitation occurring is fairly low, at this point.
Temperatures will be marginal for freezing rain. If, however, freezing rain does develop then some slick spots could occur. Overall, the chances for widespread problems will be low.
There would be a better chance for temperatures to be at or below freezing from Farmington, MO towards Carmi, IL. There and north of there.
The GEM guidance develops a weak area of low pressure to our south. This could enhance precipitation (if it were to develop). I will monitor the trends and update the top portion of the forecast is necessary.
Cold weather is going to continue into Friday.
A new cold air outbreak will spread into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will dip into the teens on Thursday and Friday morning. This is well below our normal low temperatures of 26-30 degrees.
Brrrr!
Check out the wind chill forecast for Wednesday and Thursday morning. Bundle up weather!
Wednesday morning at 6 am
Thursday morning at 6 am
Weekend storm system:
- Rain likely Friday night into Saturday
- Big question mark on rain changing to a wintry mix on Saturday night/Sunday morning
Well, there have certainly been a lot of rumors floating around about our weekend storm system. Several of you have messaged me about a big ice storm event.
As always, I like to remind everyone to not pay attention to people who forecast big snow and ice storms days and days in advance. The meteorology is just not there. The same goes for your app’s!
Wait until we are in the 24 to 48 time frame. Then we can start talking about higher confidence levels.
Case in point:
The models have been showing a large snow and ice storm for Friday and Saturday. The upper level of the atmosphere, however, has been supporting a low-pressure center to move to our north. This would indicate a mostly rain event in our region. So, although the model guidance has been showing a winter storm, the upper level support is not favorable for a winter storm in our area. At least not at this point.
There is no blocking. Blocking would keep the storm track further south. A further south track would indicate winter weather for our local area. A track to the north would mean warmer air and rain.
At this time, I favor a mostly rain event. If the precipitation arrives early enough then there could be a brief period of wintry mix. Then everything changes to rain. As a matter of fact, temperatures might rise into the 50’s/60’s on Saturday.
Look at these crazy temperatures for Saturday. This happens if the low passes to our north.
The only way this forecast could change is if the system tracks much much further south. I suspect there will be some shift southward in model guidance, but it would really have to shift south to produce significant winter weather in our area.
Much colder air will return behind the storm system.
The next big question is going to be a change from rain to a wintry mix on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Model guidance does show this happening. Typically, without a wave of low pressure along the front, rain changing to snow does not amount to much.
The exception to the rule is when a wave develops.
Some of the guidance does form a wave. This increases coverage of precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This needs to be monitored. I posted in the winter weather outlook graphics and more information. To see that visit the www.weathertalk.com page and click on the Daily Weather Summary tab. Follow the directions to see the winter weather outlook.
Remember in November, I told you that a common theme for December would be cold air. I also mentioned that storm tracks tend to move north of our region. We would have a lot of cold air and then as storm systems develop we would briefly warm up. We would then drop back into the lower temperatures, once the system passed. This is not unusual for December.
December can be a bit of a roller-coaster for temperatures.
January and February are our bigger snow months. Yes, we can have snow in December, but better chances tend to arrive with January and February. There are 14-16 weeks of potential winter weather for our region. We are about to mark off two of those weeks. That leaves us with 12 to 14 more weeks.
I will have more to say in the updated winter weather outlook. The outlook will be posted on the WeatherTalk web-site.
I always say, December snow is bonus snow.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Some light rain or freezing rain is possible Monday night/Tuesday morning. Accumulations, if any, should be light.
This image is the official NOAA/WPC/NWS rainfall forecast graphic.
These are precipitation totals from now until Monday
Click images to enlarge
These are NWS forecast totals.
The WPC/NOAA is not forecasting measurable rain in our region through Thursday night.
It is, however, possible that some light precipitation accumulation could occur tonight into Tuesday.
Friday through Sunday system:
These totals are from Friday into Sunday night. This is the next system that will enter our region later this week.
I am sure these numbers will change between now and then.
This is the first attempt at numbers. A lot of this will depend on storm track.
Zoom view
Zoom view
Temperature Outlook
Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon high temperatures
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday night through next Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday night into Saturday: I am monitoring another storm system. Severe weather, at this time, appears unlikely. Monitor updates.
Saturday night through Sunday: Will be monitoring the same storm system. Colder air should arrive by Sunday.
Sunday, December 18th through Thursday, December 22nd: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Tweaked the precipitation forecast a little bit for Monday night/Tuesday.
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Light rain or freezing rain possible Monday night and Tuesday. At this time, it does not appear that major impacts will occur. If temperatures fail to rise later tonight/Tuesday morning then some freezing rain could cause issues on roadways. The risk for this appears small, but not zero.
I will monitor a storm system for Friday and Saturday
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
