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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Stronger storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Torrential downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few strong storms possible. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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Wednesday – Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Showers and thunderstorms again possible. Some intense storms again possible, as well.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Stronger storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Torrential downpours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible. The overall severe weather threat is small, but perhaps not zero. A few storms could produce strong winds and hail. Tornado risk is small.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible (especially before 11 pm).
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning. Strong winds near storms (mainly during the evening hours).
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible. The overall severe weather threat is small, but perhaps not zero. A few storms could produce strong winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Very isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-98 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No. But, if a storm were to form it could be intense. Low confidence on storms forming.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:51 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:14 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Mostly clear and warm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Mostly sunny. Very warm. Less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Medium to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:46 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:49 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Less humid. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Northeast/north winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. A bit more humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 8:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:57 a.m. Full moon.
Monday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. More humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. More humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Heavy thunderstorms possible into Wednesday evening
- We dry out this weekend
- Nice camping weather ahead of us
The main weather story is the heat. The second weather story are thunderstorms. Temperatures once again rose into the 90’s on Tuesday. Heat index values topped 100 degrees. Not my cup of tea type of weather. But, I know some of you love your summer weather.
Thunderstorms erupted on Monday across parts of the area. Rainfall totals from 0.00″ to over 3.00″ occurred. Feast or famine. That is what I call summer thunderstorms. The same occurred on Tuesday. Thunderstorms popped up a little earlier on Tuesday. Radar already had a few storms before 9 a.m.
The main weather concern for the next 24-36 hours will be high heat index values and locally strong thunderstorms. Heat index values will top out over 100 degrees again on Wednesday. If you have to work outside then be sure and take precautions. You know the drill.
Any thunderstorms that pop up in this moisture rich atmosphere could produce torrential downpours, strong and gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. A couple of storms could even produce damaging wind gusts. These storms are topping out above 50,000′ into the atmosphere. That is a lot of energy. Occasionally these type of storms will produce down burst winds. Down bursts winds can topple trees. Isolated areas.
The severe weather threat, overall, is fairly small. But, I can’t rule out a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings. The tornado risk is low. Not a lot of turning in the atmosphere. Occasionally, during this time of the year, you can have a storm produce a brief tornado. But, the overall tornado risk will remain low.
The GREAT news is that temperatures should be nicer by Friday into the weekend. This should be a nice weekend to hit the lakes. Camping weather. Lower humidity levels. Should be nice.
There is only a small chance for a thunderstorm on Thursday.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday night: Level 2 threat. Some thunderstorms are possible. Severe weather threat is low. A couple of reports of dime to nickel size hail will also be possible. The tornado risk is very low. Lightning and gusty winds will be the main concern. Also, locally heavy rain. I can’t rule out brief periods of flash flooding from the most intense thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Level 2 threat. A few strong storms are possible. High winds would be the main concern. Lightning and heavy downpours, as well. The overall severe weather threat is low, but not zero. A couple of reports of dime to nickel size hail will also be possible. The tornado risk is very low.
Thursday: Isolated storms possible.
Friday-Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Thursday into the weekend continue to look drier. Guidance continues to move away from the idea of heavy rains during that time period. I continue to adjust the forecast accordingly.
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The main concern will be torrential downpours. Some locations could have flash flooding. Isolated areas. Rainfall rates of 1-3″ an hour will occur into Wednesday. But, some locations may miss out on the storms. Summer pattern. Hit and miss thunderstorms.
The most intense storms will produce frequent lightning, torrential rains, dime to nickel size hail, and wind gusts above 50 mph. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. But, isolated severe storms can’t be ruled out.
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Avoid flooded roadways.
Make sure the outdoor pets have plenty of water.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Some locations have already picked up more than three inches of rain since Monday! Isolated areas. But, that was the forecast. The atmosphere is juiced up. And, that will be the case into Wednesday evening.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
