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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated storms can produce small hail and strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. Muggy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Stronger storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Torrential downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A few strong storms possible. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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Wednesday – Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Showers and thunderstorms again possible. Some intense storms again possible, as well.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Stronger storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Torrential downpours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-95 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible. The overall severe weather threat is small, but perhaps not zero. A few storms could produce strong winds and hail. Tornado risk is small.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible (especially before 11 pm).
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning. Strong winds near storms (mainly during the evening hours).
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible. The overall severe weather threat is small, but perhaps not zero. A few storms could produce strong winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Very isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-98 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No. But, if a storm were to form it could be intense. Low confidence on storms forming.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:51 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:14 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Mostly clear and warm.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Mostly sunny. Very warm. Less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Medium to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:46 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:49 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Less humid. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Northeast/north winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. A bit more humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 8:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:57 a.m. Full moon.
Monday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. More humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. More humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- A few more hot days
- Increasing thunderstorm chances
- Nice weekend ahead of us?
- Next cold front Tuesday/Wednesday of next week
The main weather story continues to be the heat. Hard to beat the heat. It just follows you around. Muggy air. Temperatures in the 90’s. Heat index values from 95 to 100 degrees. I guess if you like summer then you have enjoyed the last few days.
The good news (for those who hate the heat) is that some relief is showing up in the charts. We just have to get from point A to point B.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase into Wednesday. Perhaps the peak chances will be Tuesday afternoon and again on Wednesday. I am forecasting most areas to pick up 0.40″-0.80″ of rainfall. Pockets of 1-3″ will be possible where the most intense storms occur. And, I would not be surprised if a few spots end up with very little rain. It is June. This type of pattern is fairly common.
If a line of thunderstorms develops or an MCS (thunderstorm complex) then most of the area would pick up measurable rainfall. If those do not develop then the storm coverage would be spotty. This is one part of the forecast that will be monitored.
The main concern over the coming days will be lightning. Outdoor events might be impacted by thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is also a concern. And, a few of the stronger storms could produce wind gusts above 50 mph. The overall severe weather risk appears small, but not zero. Again, fairly typical June weather.
I always like to remind people that thunderstorms in June can produce very heavy rain. And, if a couple of storms train over the same area, isolated flash flooding could occur. This would be the exception and not the rule.
A weak cold front will pass through the region on Thursday. This should usher in nicer temperatures and lower humidity levels. At this time, Friday into Sunday appear nice for camping and lake activities. Better temperatures and lower humidity. At one time it appeared rain chances could continue into the weekend. That was in response to an upper level low. But, confidence was always low on that happening. Charts over the last two days have trended away from this happening. Thus, I have removed the higher rain chances for Friday into Sunday.
Our next cold front might arrive on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Plenty of time to monitor that part of the forecast.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night: Isolated thunderstorm chance. Severe weather is not anticipated. Storms could, however, produce strong winds. Isolated spots.
Tuesday and Tuesday night: Some thunderstorms are possible. Severe weather threat is low. Lightning and gusty winds will be the main concern. Also, locally heavy rain.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: A few strong storms are possible. High winds would be the main concern. Lightning and heavy downpours, as well. The overall severe weather threat is low, but not zero.
Thursday: Isolated storms possible.
Friday-Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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I continue to update rain chances for Thursday into the new weekend.
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The main concern will be on and off thunderstorm chances into at least Wednesday night (perhaps Thursday). Lightning is the main concern. A second concern will be some locally heavy downpours. And, a few isolated reports of high winds are also possible. The overall threat for severe weather is low.
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Perhaps an umbrella over the next couple of days. We will have thunderstorm chances.
Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase over the coming days. Locally heavy rain is possible. I am forecasting most areas to pick up 0.40″-0.80″. And, there could be spots of 1-3″ of rain. The heavier totals should be more isolated. Storms during June can produce copious amounts of rain. No lack of moisture in the atmosphere.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
