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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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🌩️ KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
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Tuesday Afternoon and tonight: Widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly west of the Mississippi River.
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Gusty Winds: South winds will gust 25–35 mph today, with isolated gusts near 40 mph. Highest wind gusts will be this morning into the afternoon over southeast MO and southern IL. Gusty winds elsewhere, as well.
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Heavy Rain: Some thunderstorms will likely produce 0.75–1.4 inches of rain in a short period. That would mostly be from 4 PM this afternoon through 12 AM tonight. Starting over southeast MO first. Spreading east into the evening and overnight hours.
The bulk of today will be dry.
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Wednesday and Thursday: Dry and mild, with temperatures remaining above normal.
- Friday–Early Next Week: Turning cooler and staying dry. A frost is possible Sunday and Monday morning. Odds of a freeze are lower. I will monitor this. Either way, it will be chilly.
Gusty winds today. Highest winds will be this morning into early this afternoon. Here are the expected gusts.
Double-click to enlarge the graphic.
🌦️ FORECAST DISCUSSION
Tuesday: A warm, windy day with highs in the middle to upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue through tonight. Again, they will develop over southeast MO after 4 PM. Then spread eastward into the evening. Locally heavy rain is possible. There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. About 200% to 300% percent of normal. That simply means that thunderstorms will produce downpours.
The showers and storms will be moving at a speed of 30 mph. It will move from west to east. Some southwest to northeast movement, as well. See the live radars to track the rain and lightning.
A few storms could produce high winds, mainly west of the Mississippi River. The overall severe weather threat is low. The tornado threat remains low, but perhaps not zero. Any tornado would be brief and on the low end of the scale.
Wednesday and Thursday: Rain ends early Wednesday, followed by clearing skies. Temperatures remain mild and above normal.
Friday into early next week: A couple of cold fronts will bring cooler, more seasonable temperatures. Dry weather should continue. A frost is likely on Sunday and/or Monday morning. There is a 70% chance of frost. There is a 10% chance of dipping into the lower 30s over mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
This could be the first real frost for many locations. That includes the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
November 3rd through November 9th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: MONITOR. I will monitor this afternoon and evening. A few of the storms could produce gusty winds. The severe weather threat is low. As always, monitor updates.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: MONITOR. There is a small chance of a short-lived tornado over southeast Missouri late this afternoon and evening. The risk east of the Mississippi River is even lower. As always, monitor your Beau Dodson www.weathertalk.com app for alerts.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s current severe weather outlook.
Light green indicates where lightning is possible. Not severe.
Dark green indicates where a few thunderstorms could produce high winds. The tornado risk is low.
Double-click images to enlarge them.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. This afternoon and tonight.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Locally heavy rain is possible this afternoon and tonight. This could cause some low-end flooding of commonly flooded roadways and ditches.
3. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? POSSIBLE. Today. Perhaps a higher chance during this morning vs this afternoon. These would be non-thunderstorm gradient winds. Thunderstorms could also produce gusty winds late today and tonight.
5. Will temperatures fall below 32 degrees? Monitor. I am monitoring Sunday and Monday morning.
6. Will temperatures fall below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Will the wind chill fall below 10 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill fall below 0 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> When rain is forecast, rain chances will vary across the forecast area. County-by-county rain probabilities are below. Scroll down.
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them. Most of this will fall between 3 PM this afternoon and 3 AM tomorrow morning. Ending west to east tomorrow morning.
As always, rain totals will vary greatly depending on where thunderstorms track. Storms can always produce higher totals.
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Tuesday
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are models.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
RRFS High Resolution Guidance
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr High Resolution Guidance
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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