Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Key Seven-Day Weather Information

If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

.

🌧️ KEY MESSAGES

October sure was warm.  I should have the rankings later today.  Paducah, Kentucky and other cities likely had a top 5 warmest October’s on record.

Check out these two graphics.

They show you how many degrees above or below average each day was.  Mostly above.

Paducah, Kentucky.

.

Carbondale, Illinois

.

• Monday: Drizzle and light rain will gradually end this morning. Cloudy skies will continue throughout the day.
• Tuesday and Wednesday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move across the Quad State. Heavy downpours are possible, with rainfall totals of 0.70″ to 1.4 inches. There is a 60% to 80% chance of receiving at least 1 inch of rain.  Most of the Tuesday rain will arrive during the mid- to late-afternoon hours and continue into Tuesday night.  A few storms could be strong with gusty winds.  A small chance of severe thunderstorms.  Monitor updates, as always.
• Gusty Winds Tuesday: South winds could gust 20 to 40 mph. There is a 60% to 90% chance of gusts reaching 30 mph or higher. Stronger gusts are possible with thunderstorms.  The highest winds may be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  See graphic below.
• Severe Weather: A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, mainly during the late afternoon hours into the first half of Tuesday night. There is a 10% chance of damaging wind gusts with the thunderstorms.  There is a very small chance of a short-lived tornado over mainly southeast Missouri.   The overall threat remains low (Marginal Risk, Level 1 of 5).
• Thursday Through the Weekend: Drier and cooler weather returns. Highs will generally be in the lower to middle 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

📝 FORECAST DISCUSSION

A strong storm system will pass north of our region Monday night through Wednesday. This will push a cold front across the Quad State Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a 60% to 80% chance of receiving at least 0.70″ to 1.40 inches of rain. Moisture levels will be two to three times higher than normal for early November. This could lead to heavy downpours, especially late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Please see the rain probability graphics below.  That includes the timing.

Tuesday will also be windy. South winds will increase ahead of the cold front, with gusts over 30 mph likely. There is a 60% to 90% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph.  THe highest winds will likely be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Perhaps the peak gusts will be during the morning hours.

This graphic shows you the Tuesday morning wind gust potential.  A wind advisory may need to be issued by the NWS.

.

The overall severe weather threat remains low, but a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The greatest risk will be late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

Here is the high wind outlook.  This is for the thunderstorm winds.  The risk is a bit higher over southeast Missouri, and then it wanes as it moves eastward.  I will monitor it, as always.  If warnings are issued, then I will send them to your Beau Dodson Weather App.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a low-level Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

Drier and cooler weather returns Thursday through most of the weekend. High temperatures will settle into the lower to mid-60s, with overnight lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  That is closer to seasonal levels.  Perhaps a few degrees below average.

Have a super day!

.