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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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🌤️ Weather Update: Friday, October 30th
🌤️ Friday, Friday night, and Saturday Morning: Mild and Dry
Our stretch of mild, dry weather will continue through most of Saturday. Expect a mixture of clouds and sunshine, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.
No weather concerns through most of Saturday afternoon.
I will keep an eye on rain showers across the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee as we move into the evening hours.
🎃 Halloween Evening:
The good news for trick-or-treaters! Most of Halloween evening should remain dry.
A few showers could begin moving into the region from the west around or shortly after 7 PM Saturday. Rain chances will increase as we move through Saturday night.
I would not cancel or change any Halloween plans. Just throw a jacket and umbrella in the car, just in case.
The rain will first arrive across southern Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. I can’t rule out some light showers there before 7 PM, but chances increase as we move deeper into the night. That rain will spread northeast across the region.
🌧️ Saturday Night and Sunday: Rain Likely
Numerous showers will develop as we move through Saturday night and Sunday morning. No severe weather concerns.
Rainfall totals have also increased, especially across western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.
Those areas now have about a 60% chance of receiving at least half an inch of rain.
Again, most of the rain is expected Saturday night into Sunday.
Rain chances on Sunday night are much lower.
🌧️ Monday Through Wednesday: Another Round of Rain
A stronger storm system is expected to move through our region early next week, bringing another round of widespread rain.
Rain chances during the day on Monday are fairly low. Then, they increase Monday night.
There is about a 60% chance of receiving at least three-quarters of an inch of rain across the Quad State between Monday night and Wednesday evening.
With more clouds and rain, temperatures will turn cooler, dropping closer to normal or even a little below normal.
⛈️ Thunderstorms are also possible next week, but it is too early to determine whether any could become strong or severe. That will depend on the exact track and strength of the approaching storm system.
For now, the severe weather threat appears to remain to our west and south. As always, monitor updates in case conditions change.
📌 Bottom Line
- 🌤️ Friday and most of Saturday: Mild and mainly dry.
- 🎃 Halloween evening: Most activities should remain dry. Rain chances will increase as we move into the overnight hours.
- 🌧️ Saturday night and Sunday: Rain likely, with a 50% to 70% chance.
- 🌧️ Monday night through Wednesday: Another round of rain, potentially bringing higher rainfall totals.
- 🌡️ Next week: Cooler temperatures return.
- ⛈️ Thunderstorm potential next week remains uncertain.
We need the rain, and it looks like we will have at least two opportunities for some much-needed rainfall over the next several days.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
October 30th through November 4th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NOT AT THIS TIME. I will continue to monitor next Monday night through Wednesday.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. A small chance on Saturday night. I will monitor Monday night into Wednesday. Scattered lightning is possible.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures fall below 32 degrees? NO.
6. Will temperatures fall below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Will the wind chill fall below 10 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill fall below 0 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> When rain is forecast, rain chances will vary across the forecast area. County-by-county rain probabilities are below. Scroll down.
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
These totals are from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM Sunday. Additional rain is likely next week.
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
These totals are from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM Sunday. Additional rain is likely next week.
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are models.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Guidance
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC Guidance
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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