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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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🌤️ Thursday, October 29th – Weather Update
☀️ Today and Friday: Warm and dry weather continues across the Quad State. Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, with overnight lows mainly in the 50s.
🎃 Saturday (Halloween): Most of the day should remain dry. Rain chances will increase Saturday evening and overnight. Some showers could affect Halloween activities. The system is trending weaker. Rainfall totals have come down. At this time, it appears rain totals will range from 0.05″ to 0.30″. That would mainly be from Saturday evening through Sunday noon. No severe weather concerns.
I would not cancel any weekend plans. I would throw an umbrella in the car and a rain jacket. Then, if rain develops you will be prepared.
🌧️ Saturday Night and Sunday: Scattered showers are likely. Most locations will receive less than 0.25 inches. There is a 30% chance of receiving a quarter inch or more.
⛈️ Monday through Wednesday: A stronger storm system could bring more widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will turn cooler, and rainfall amounts could be more significant. At this time, it appears there is NOT a threat of severe weather. I will monitor the trends in the guidance. If that changes, then I will let you know, of course.
💧 There is about a 40% to 50% chance of receiving at least 1 inch of rain between Monday and Wednesday evening. We need rain, as you know. Let’s hope this pans out. It seems almost every rain event trends weaker.
Bottom line: The weekend rain may not amount to much, but next week’s system could bring some much-needed rainfall. There is still uncertainty about the exact amounts, so stay tuned for updates!
Have a super day!
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
October 29th through November 3rd
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NO.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NO.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? LOW RISK. A small chance on Saturday night. I will monitor Monday night into Wednesday. Scattered lightning is possible.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures fall below 32 degrees? NO.
6. Will temperatures fall below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Will the wind chill fall below 10 degrees? NO.
8. Will the wind chill fall below 0 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> When rain is forecast, rain chances will vary across the forecast area. County-by-county rain probabilities are below. Scroll down.
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are models.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Guidance
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC Guidance
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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